Saskatchewan:Saskatchewan:
Not Just Your Parents’ Not Just Your Parents’ Prairie ProvincePrairie Province
Eric HoweEric HoweProfessor of EconomicsProfessor of Economics
University of SaskatchewanUniversity of Saskatchewan
www.northernimpaq.cawww.northernimpaq.ca
Four points:Four points:
Personal Saving Rates Show the Personal Saving Rates Show the Continuing Evolution of Continuing Evolution of Saskatchewan’s EconomySaskatchewan’s Economy
Saskatchewan will become more Saskatchewan will become more Aboriginal faster than many realizeAboriginal faster than many realize
Saskatchewan will become less Saskatchewan will become less Agricultural than many realizeAgricultural than many realize
Saskatchewan’s labour market will Saskatchewan’s labour market will become scarcely recognizablebecome scarcely recognizable
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
University of SaskatchewanUniversity of Saskatchewan
A Number of Governments and NGO’s A Number of Governments and NGO’s
A Number of CorporationsA Number of Corporations
My Economic Forecasting StudentsMy Economic Forecasting Students
Personal Saving Rates Show Personal Saving Rates Show The Continuing Evolution of The Continuing Evolution of Saskatchewan’s EconomySaskatchewan’s Economy
Saskatchewan will become Saskatchewan will become more Aboriginal faster than more Aboriginal faster than
most people realizemost people realize Aboriginal percentage of provincial Aboriginal percentage of provincial
populationpopulation
What proportion of our young What proportion of our young adults will be Aboriginal in adults will be Aboriginal in
2016?2016?
According to the Census of 2006, According to the Census of 2006, Aboriginal People made up 23% of Aboriginal People made up 23% of Saskatchewan’s population aged 10-19Saskatchewan’s population aged 10-19
By the Census of 2016, that cohort will By the Census of 2016, that cohort will be young adults, aged 20-29be young adults, aged 20-29
Will 23% of Saskatchewan’s young Will 23% of Saskatchewan’s young adults be Aboriginal in 2016?adults be Aboriginal in 2016?
You can make good You can make good arguments that the 23% arguments that the 23%
will decreasewill decrease
In-migrationIn-migration
Somewhat surprisingly, this argument is fairly weak even Somewhat surprisingly, this argument is fairly weak even with the boomwith the boom
You can make good You can make good arguments that the 23% arguments that the 23%
will increasewill increase23% is an underestimate23% is an underestimate
Registered Indians in SaskatchewanRegistered Indians in Saskatchewan
90,720 according to the 2006 Census90,720 according to the 2006 Census
123,017 according to the Indian Register123,017 according to the Indian Register
By 2016 the Saskatchewan labour-By 2016 the Saskatchewan labour-market will be fundamentally different market will be fundamentally different than today, lowering net migrationthan today, lowering net migration
By 2016, 23% of By 2016, 23% of Saskatchewan’s young adults Saskatchewan’s young adults
will be Aboriginalwill be AboriginalThat is about one in fourThat is about one in four
2016 is not far away2016 is not far away
If we lose the current generation of If we lose the current generation of Aboriginal Youth the result will be social Aboriginal Youth the result will be social turmoil like Saskatchewan hasn’t turmoil like Saskatchewan hasn’t experienced since the Great Depression experienced since the Great Depression
Gentle question forGentle question forAboriginal-Majority-SkepticsAboriginal-Majority-Skeptics
2001 Census: Aboriginal females made 2001 Census: Aboriginal females made up 15% of the female population of up 15% of the female population of childbearing age in our provincechildbearing age in our province
In the subsequent five years, 29% of In the subsequent five years, 29% of provincial babies were Aboriginalprovincial babies were Aboriginal
These babies will grow up and begin to These babies will grow up and begin to have their own babies by the 2021 have their own babies by the 2021 CensusCensus
Fill-in-the-blank question for Fill-in-the-blank question for Aboriginal-Majority-SkepticsAboriginal-Majority-Skeptics
15 is to 29 as 29 is to ____15 is to 29 as 29 is to ____
Saskatchewan employment will Saskatchewan employment will become less agriculturalbecome less agricultural
Saskatchewan employment will Saskatchewan employment will become less agriculturalbecome less agricultural
Saskatchewan employment will Saskatchewan employment will become less agriculturalbecome less agricultural
Saskatchewan income cannot Saskatchewan income cannot become much less agriculturalbecome much less agricultural
Saskatchewan’s labour market Saskatchewan’s labour market will become scarcely will become scarcely
recognizablerecognizable
The labour market had better become The labour market had better become increasingly Aboriginalincreasingly Aboriginal
Provincial employment is about to stop Provincial employment is about to stop growing, except maybe in Reginagrowing, except maybe in Regina
The labour market is becoming The labour market is becoming increasingly Aboriginalincreasingly Aboriginal
2009: The Year We Raced 2009: The Year We Raced BackwardBackward
2009: The Year We Raced 2009: The Year We Raced BackwardBackward
Since: Some Since: Some Recovery, Then More Recovery, Then More
DisasterDisaster
Saskatchewan’s labour market Saskatchewan’s labour market will become scarcely will become scarcely
recognizablerecognizable
The labour market had better become The labour market had better become increasingly Aboriginalincreasingly Aboriginal
Provincial employment is about to stop Provincial employment is about to stop growing, except maybe in Reginagrowing, except maybe in Regina
Saskatchewan:Saskatchewan:
Not Just Your Parents’ Not Just Your Parents’ Prairie Province Prairie Province
Eric HoweEric HoweProfessor of EconomicsProfessor of Economics
University of SaskatchewanUniversity of Saskatchewan
www.northernimpaq.cawww.northernimpaq.ca