PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817
PP QPF
WP 3.2
M. Milelli*, E. Oberto*, A. Parodi**
*ARPA Piemonte, Torino
**CIMA, Savona
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 200718 August 2006, 00 UTC: Bracknell analysis
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007Rain cumulated between 17 August 17:50 UTC and 18 August 05:50 UTC
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
Station 1h (mm) 3h (mm) 6h (mm) 12h (mm) 24h (mm) Cicogna 93.8 132 214.8 258.2 291.6 Cursolo 69.2 120.2 169.6 227 265.4
Maximum observed rainfall depths, for time window d=1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h, by some raingauge stations in the Toce and Sesia catchments during the event of 17 august 2006.
Return time > 50 years!!!
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
Observed rainfall ietographs in the raingauge stations of Cossogno-Cicogna and Cursolo-Orasso in the Toce catchment (16 august-18 august 2006). Most of the rainfall event occurred in the period 18 UTC of 17 august-06 UTC of 18 august 2006.
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
Ticino
Toce
Sesia
+06/+30 interval
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
+06/+30 interval
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
+06/+30 interval
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
Exp0: CTRL Exp15: CONkbf (Bechtold convection scheme)
Obs.
+06/+30 interval
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
Limit of reliable scale of mesoscale modeling
PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007
Some conclusions can be drawn based on the results obtained for the Piedmont case study:
• QPF of COSMO-Model at 7 km shows a certain insensitivity with respect to change in its physical and numerical formulation;
• On average, the experimental runs are unable to capture the correct time evolution of the event (not shown here);
• The main responsible for the COSMO-Model deficiencies in the QPF seems to be impossibility of a proper modelling at 7 km of deep moist convective processes in complex orography areas.
Conclusions
We were probably asking too much to the model…