PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817 PP QPF WP 3.2 M. Milelli, E. Oberto, A. Parodi** *ARPA Piemonte,

PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007

Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817

PP QPF

WP 3.2

M. Milelli*, E. Oberto*, A. Parodi**

*ARPA Piemonte, Torino

**CIMA, Savona


PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 200718 August 2006, 00 UTC: Bracknell analysis



PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007Rain cumulated between 17 August 17:50 UTC and 18 August 05:50 UTC


Station 1h (mm) 3h (mm) 6h (mm) 12h (mm) 24h (mm) Cicogna 93.8 132 214.8 258.2 291.6 Cursolo 69.2 120.2 169.6 227 265.4

Maximum observed rainfall depths, for time window d=1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h, by some raingauge stations in the Toce and Sesia catchments during the event of 17 august 2006.

Return time > 50 years!!!


Observed rainfall ietographs in the raingauge stations of Cossogno-Cicogna and Cursolo-Orasso in the Toce catchment (16 august-18 august 2006). Most of the rainfall event occurred in the period 18 UTC of 17 august-06 UTC of 18 august 2006.


Ticino

Toce

Sesia

+06/+30 interval


+06/+30 interval


+06/+30 interval


Exp0: CTRL Exp15: CONkbf (Bechtold convection scheme)

Obs.

+06/+30 interval



Limit of reliable scale of mesoscale modeling


Some conclusions can be drawn based on the results obtained for the Piedmont case study:

• QPF of COSMO-Model at 7 km shows a certain insensitivity with respect to change in its physical and numerical formulation;

• On average, the experimental runs are unable to capture the correct time evolution of the event (not shown here);

• The main responsible for the COSMO-Model deficiencies in the QPF seems to be impossibility of a proper modelling at 7 km of deep moist convective processes in complex orography areas.

Conclusions

We were probably asking too much to the model…

Documents

PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817 PP QPF WP 3.2 M. Milelli*, E. Oberto*, A. Parodi** *ARPA Piemonte,

PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 8 March 2007 Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817 PP QPF WP 3.2 M. Milelli, E. Oberto, A. Parodi** *ARPA Piemonte,