Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2
Demographic Change
ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 “Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its
Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness”
• The European population is increasing slowly over time.
• A trend of East-West polarisation of the pattern of demographic development is visible, mostly due to negative migration balance in Eastern Europe.
• Migration plays a key role for population growth in Europe.
• Europe is getting older. In 2030, the median age in some regions will exceed 50 years.
• Towards 2030, population growth will be significantly higher in countries neighbouring Europe to the South which may sustain a particular migratory pressure on Europe.
Stimulus map
Population in EU and its neighborhood in 2030
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Workshop 1.2 – key questions for ESPON projects
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1. What are the main territorial trends or observations from your project - for Europe, its regions and cities - in relation to “population development, migration flows, labour market and social inclusion”?
Please select maximum 2 maps from your project and include maximum 5 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question.
Maximum use 3-4 slides for showing ESPON evidence on this question.
2. How do developments in Europe’s neighborhood influence the territorial development in Europe and vice-versa (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)?
Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question, as much as possible based on your project results and on the case studies developed.
Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.
3. What opportunities and challenges exists for Europe and its neighbourhood for increasing competitiveness through further cooperation and integration? (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)?
Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question.
Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.
Population growth 1990-2010
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Europe’s neighbourhood influence
• No divide – thus no “pressure” – between Espon / and ENRs; rather, a differentiation between Western Europe / central Europe & Eastern Neighbourhoods / Southern Neighbourhoods.
• Major contrast in the Eastern part, with Turkey as a key point. A lower contrast between Western Europe and Maghreb regions.
• ENRs are experiencing the territorial evolution that Espon space formely experienced: rapid urbanisation, coastal concentration potential cooperation for planning and regional development
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Europe’s neighbourhood influenceDependency ratio
• A ratio with two very different components: vis-à-vis the younger (high dependency in the Eastern Mediterranean) / and the elder (high dependency in Espon & in Eastern Neighbouring space)
• The Southern ENCs are experiencing the ‘demographic gift’ for the coming two decades
• The demographic structure is converging at high speed between Espon space and its Neighbours
• Internal contrasts are high within ENCs: e.g. Turkey (West v. East), Algeria (coast v. inland), Morocco (large cities v. rest of country).
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Europe’s neighbourhood influence
• Migration in the Region: a key issue for both Espon space (needs for higher professional mobility) and ENCs (Euro-pean economic & cultural inputs), yet poorly addressed
• Europe is loosing the battle for attracting the ENCs’ qualified labour forces. Only 1 out 6 high level Jordanians students enrolled abroad come to Espon. The majority of the high skilled East Mediterranean people living abroad live in Northern America.
• Except singular countries such as Lebanon, outmigration of skilled people is not a brain drain but win-win.
Migrations
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Opportunities and challenges for EuropeHuman development 2000-2011• HDI: Eastern Neighbours are
recovering after the hard 1990s; Mediterranean Neighbours keep on improving. ENCs: disparities decrease vis-à-vis Espon space.
• Education component: Med ENCs benefit from their long run effort – but need further cooperation for adapting to labour market needs
• Life expectancy: recovery in the Eastern Neighbourhoods is for Russia only. Many fields of actual & potential cooperation in health issue with Southern Neighbours
• Income / inhab.: in the South improvement are not sufficient to cope with the employment needs.