Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2

Demographic Change

ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 “Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its

Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness”

• The European population is increasing slowly over time.

• A trend of East-West polarisation of the pattern of demographic development is visible, mostly due to negative migration balance in Eastern Europe.

• Migration plays a key role for population growth in Europe.

• Europe is getting older. In 2030, the median age in some regions will exceed 50 years.

• Towards 2030, population growth will be significantly higher in countries neighbouring Europe to the South which may sustain a particular migratory pressure on Europe.

Stimulus map

Population in EU and its neighborhood in 2030

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Workshop 1.2 – key questions for ESPON projects

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1. What are the main territorial trends or observations from your project - for Europe, its regions and cities - in relation to “population development, migration flows, labour market and social inclusion”?

Please select maximum 2 maps from your project and include maximum 5 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question.

Maximum use 3-4 slides for showing ESPON evidence on this question.

2. How do developments in Europe’s neighborhood influence the territorial development in Europe and vice-versa (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)?

Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question, as much as possible based on your project results and on the case studies developed.

 Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.

3. What opportunities and challenges exists for Europe and its neighbourhood for increasing competitiveness through further cooperation and integration? (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)?

Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question.  

Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.

 

 

Population growth 1990-2010

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Europe’s neighbourhood influence

• No divide – thus no “pressure” – between Espon / and ENRs; rather, a differentiation between Western Europe / central Europe & Eastern Neighbourhoods / Southern Neighbourhoods.

• Major contrast in the Eastern part, with Turkey as a key point. A lower contrast between Western Europe and Maghreb regions.

• ENRs are experiencing the territorial evolution that Espon space formely experienced: rapid urbanisation, coastal concentration potential cooperation for planning and regional development

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Europe’s neighbourhood influenceDependency ratio

• A ratio with two very different components: vis-à-vis the younger (high dependency in the Eastern Mediterranean) / and the elder (high dependency in Espon & in Eastern Neighbouring space)

• The Southern ENCs are experiencing the ‘demographic gift’ for the coming two decades

• The demographic structure is converging at high speed between Espon space and its Neighbours

• Internal contrasts are high within ENCs: e.g. Turkey (West v. East), Algeria (coast v. inland), Morocco (large cities v. rest of country).

 

 

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Europe’s neighbourhood influence

• Migration in the Region: a key issue for both Espon space (needs for higher professional mobility) and ENCs (Euro-pean economic & cultural inputs), yet poorly addressed

• Europe is loosing the battle for attracting the ENCs’ qualified labour forces. Only 1 out 6 high level Jordanians students enrolled abroad come to Espon. The majority of the high skilled East Mediterranean people living abroad live in Northern America.

• Except singular countries such as Lebanon, outmigration of skilled people is not a brain drain but win-win.

 

 

Migrations

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Opportunities and challenges for EuropeHuman development 2000-2011• HDI: Eastern Neighbours are

recovering after the hard 1990s; Mediterranean Neighbours keep on improving. ENCs: disparities decrease vis-à-vis Espon space.

• Education component: Med ENCs benefit from their long run effort – but need further cooperation for adapting to labour market needs

• Life expectancy: recovery in the Eastern Neighbourhoods is for Russia only. Many fields of actual & potential cooperation in health issue with Southern Neighbours

• Income / inhab.: in the South improvement are not sufficient to cope with the employment needs.