North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
Early Detection and Rapid Response:Early Detection and Rapid Response: Pest/pathogen modeling and early Pest/pathogen modeling and early
warning through the IPM-PIPEwarning through the IPM-PIPE
Early Detection and Rapid Response:Early Detection and Rapid Response: Pest/pathogen modeling and early Pest/pathogen modeling and early
warning through the IPM-PIPEwarning through the IPM-PIPE
Martin A. Draper, Martin A. Draper, National Program Leader – Plant PathologyNational Program Leader – Plant Pathology
USDA-CSREESUSDA-CSREES
Martin A. Draper, Martin A. Draper, National Program Leader – Plant PathologyNational Program Leader – Plant Pathology
USDA-CSREESUSDA-CSREES
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
National Pest Management ProgramsNational Pest Management Programs
• Classic Early Detection – Rapid Response
• APHIS-PPQ model– Prevention– Preparedness– Response – Recovery
• How do other USDA agencies and the LGU system fit in the model?
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
National Pest Management ProgramsNational Pest Management Programs
• Prevention/Recognition– Education – LGU Extension, NPDN First Detector Program
– Detection – NPDN First Detector Program, IPM-PIPE
• Preparedness– Identification/Confirmation – NPDN and APHIS-PPQ
• Response – Regulatory officials including State Departments of Ag
• Recovery– ARS, RMA, National Plant Disease Recovery System, and locally
with LGU cooperation
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
National Pest Management ProgramsNational Pest Management Programs• IPM-PIPE: Pest Information Platform for
Extension – Multiple components
• Detection• Reporting• Risk assessment• Communication
– Observation network• Repeated and Single observations (Sentinel+)• Highly dependent on LGU Extension collaboration
– Currently deployed in 35 US states, 3 Canadian Provinces and 3 Mexican states
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
http://www.sbrusa.nethttp://www.sbrusa.net
Observation Map
National Commentary
E-Mail Alerts
State CommentaryDisease Forecasting
Historical Reference
Pest Navigation
Management Tools
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
Private sidePrivate side
Expanded mapping tools including forecast models
Crop and PestDrop-down menus
Date Selection Tool
Data and Commentary Tools
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
Horizontal Transport
ImpactPre-
conditioning
SOURCE AREA DESTINATION AREA
Takeoff and
Ascent
Descent and
Landing
Earth’s surface
Earth’s atmosphere
Aerobiology Transport Aerobiology Transport ProcessProcess
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
Turbulent Transport and Dilution in the
Atmosphere
Conceptual Model
of Soybean
Rust Transport Process
Synoptic Scale AirflowsGovern Transport
Direction and Speed
Turbulent Diffusion and Wind Shear Govern Dilution
Survival of Spores while Airborne
Deposition of Spores into a Soybean Crop
Dry Deposition Due to
Wind and Turbulence
Wet Deposition
Due to Washout
by Precipitation
Escape of Spores from Canopy
Spore Production Colonization of Soybean Crop
Ultraviolet Radiation
Temperature and Relative Humidity
Soybean Plant Growth
Stage of Disease
Weather
Vertical Distribution of Spores in Canopy
Canopy Density & Structure
Wind & Turbulence
Time of Spore Release
Soybean Crop Growth Stage
Temperature & Leaf Wetness
Isard et al. 2005 BioScience 55: 851-862.
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
Commentary
Ensemble Approach for Aerobiology-Based Ensemble Approach for Aerobiology-Based Risk ForecastingRisk Forecasting
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
How else can we use the IPM-PIPE?How else can we use the IPM-PIPE?
• Soybean Aphid Model– County
source vs point source (severity)
– Shows variable resolution
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
Potential expansion for the toolPotential expansion for the tool• Legume viruses and other pest/disease complexes
• Sweet Corn Lepidoptera
• Barley head blight
• Cyst nematodes
• Citrus diseases (Canker, Tristeza, HLB/Greening)
• Cereal rusts
• Any introduced or migratory pest including arthropods
• Mapping function could be used for invasive and weedy
species, as well.
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
Why so many different pests? Why so many different pests?
• The IPM-PIPE is…
Adaptable
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
What the IPM-PIPE is What the IPM-PIPE is NOTNOT……
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
The IPM-PIPE is…The IPM-PIPE is…
• Real-Time advisory
• Planting decision aid
• IPM actions decision aid
• Communication tool for research & Extension
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
What risks are here or coming?What risks are here or coming?
• Wheat leaf rust
• Wheat stripe rust
• Wheat stem rust ‘Ug99’
– TTKS threat
– Focused in East Africa (for now)
– Movement expected
• How would the program work in the US?
• How would the program work globally?
• A great collaborative opportunity!
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
Australasia1902 in JapanThrough the 1960s
Hawaii1994
20042004
Uganda - 1997Zimbabwe - 1998S. Africa - 2001
Slide courtesy: G. Hartman, USDA-ARS
Paraguay - 2001Brazil - 2002Argentina – 2002Bolivia – 2003
Soybean Rust
Columbia – 2004 (unconfirmed)USA – 2004Mexico – 2005
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
More detailed information is More detailed information is available. available.
We welcome your questions & We welcome your questions & comments!comments!
Contact: Marty Draper or Kitty Cardwell [email protected] &[email protected]
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
The IPM-PIPE is…The IPM-PIPE is…• Dependent on Risk Management Agency, now
• Building models for the future…
• President’s FY08 budget includes $2.3M for soybean rust
• Request for Concept Notes released last week
• To be used to leverage funding from RMA
• Full RFA for new 2008 projects will follow when level of support is determined
North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007
Obstacles to expanding the Obstacles to expanding the network?network?
– Funding
– Collaboration building
– Capacity in diagnostic labs
– Capacity of extension specialists