North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

Early Detection and Rapid Response:Early Detection and Rapid Response: Pest/pathogen modeling and early Pest/pathogen modeling and early

warning through the IPM-PIPEwarning through the IPM-PIPE

Early Detection and Rapid Response:Early Detection and Rapid Response: Pest/pathogen modeling and early Pest/pathogen modeling and early

warning through the IPM-PIPEwarning through the IPM-PIPE

Martin A. Draper, Martin A. Draper, National Program Leader – Plant PathologyNational Program Leader – Plant Pathology

USDA-CSREESUSDA-CSREES

Martin A. Draper, Martin A. Draper, National Program Leader – Plant PathologyNational Program Leader – Plant Pathology

USDA-CSREESUSDA-CSREES

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

National Pest Management ProgramsNational Pest Management Programs

• Classic Early Detection – Rapid Response

• APHIS-PPQ model– Prevention– Preparedness– Response – Recovery

• How do other USDA agencies and the LGU system fit in the model?

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

National Pest Management ProgramsNational Pest Management Programs

• Prevention/Recognition– Education – LGU Extension, NPDN First Detector Program

– Detection – NPDN First Detector Program, IPM-PIPE

• Preparedness– Identification/Confirmation – NPDN and APHIS-PPQ

• Response – Regulatory officials including State Departments of Ag

• Recovery– ARS, RMA, National Plant Disease Recovery System, and locally

with LGU cooperation

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

National Pest Management ProgramsNational Pest Management Programs• IPM-PIPE: Pest Information Platform for

Extension – Multiple components

• Detection• Reporting• Risk assessment• Communication

– Observation network• Repeated and Single observations (Sentinel+)• Highly dependent on LGU Extension collaboration

– Currently deployed in 35 US states, 3 Canadian Provinces and 3 Mexican states

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

http://www.sbrusa.nethttp://www.sbrusa.net

Observation Map

National Commentary

E-Mail Alerts

State CommentaryDisease Forecasting

Historical Reference

Pest Navigation

Management Tools

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

Private sidePrivate side

Expanded mapping tools including forecast models

Crop and PestDrop-down menus

Date Selection Tool

Data and Commentary Tools

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

Horizontal Transport

ImpactPre-

conditioning

SOURCE AREA DESTINATION AREA

Takeoff and

Ascent

Descent and

Landing

Earth’s surface

Earth’s atmosphere

Aerobiology Transport Aerobiology Transport ProcessProcess

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

Turbulent Transport and Dilution in the

Atmosphere

Conceptual Model

of Soybean

Rust Transport Process

Synoptic Scale AirflowsGovern Transport

Direction and Speed

Turbulent Diffusion and Wind Shear Govern Dilution

Survival of Spores while Airborne

Deposition of Spores into a Soybean Crop

Dry Deposition Due to

Wind and Turbulence

Wet Deposition

Due to Washout

by Precipitation

Escape of Spores from Canopy

Spore Production Colonization of Soybean Crop

Ultraviolet Radiation

Temperature and Relative Humidity

Soybean Plant Growth

Stage of Disease

Weather

Vertical Distribution of Spores in Canopy

Canopy Density & Structure

Wind & Turbulence

Time of Spore Release

Soybean Crop Growth Stage

Temperature & Leaf Wetness

Isard et al. 2005 BioScience 55: 851-862.

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

Commentary

Ensemble Approach for Aerobiology-Based Ensemble Approach for Aerobiology-Based Risk ForecastingRisk Forecasting

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

How else can we use the IPM-PIPE?How else can we use the IPM-PIPE?

• Soybean Aphid Model– County

source vs point source (severity)

– Shows variable resolution

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

Potential expansion for the toolPotential expansion for the tool• Legume viruses and other pest/disease complexes

• Sweet Corn Lepidoptera

• Barley head blight

• Cyst nematodes

• Citrus diseases (Canker, Tristeza, HLB/Greening)

• Cereal rusts

• Any introduced or migratory pest including arthropods

• Mapping function could be used for invasive and weedy

species, as well.

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

Why so many different pests? Why so many different pests?

• The IPM-PIPE is…

Adaptable

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

What the IPM-PIPE is What the IPM-PIPE is NOTNOT……

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

The IPM-PIPE is…The IPM-PIPE is…

• Real-Time advisory

• Planting decision aid

• IPM actions decision aid

• Communication tool for research & Extension

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

What risks are here or coming?What risks are here or coming?

• Wheat leaf rust

• Wheat stripe rust

• Wheat stem rust ‘Ug99’

– TTKS threat

– Focused in East Africa (for now)

– Movement expected

• How would the program work in the US?

• How would the program work globally?

• A great collaborative opportunity!

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

Australasia1902 in JapanThrough the 1960s

Hawaii1994

20042004

Uganda - 1997Zimbabwe - 1998S. Africa - 2001

Slide courtesy: G. Hartman, USDA-ARS

Paraguay - 2001Brazil - 2002Argentina – 2002Bolivia – 2003

Soybean Rust

Columbia – 2004 (unconfirmed)USA – 2004Mexico – 2005

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

More detailed information is More detailed information is available. available.

We welcome your questions & We welcome your questions & comments!comments!

Contact: Marty Draper or Kitty Cardwell mdraper@csrees.usda.gov &kcardwell@csrees.usda.gov

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

The IPM-PIPE is…The IPM-PIPE is…• Dependent on Risk Management Agency, now

• Building models for the future…

• President’s FY08 budget includes $2.3M for soybean rust

• Request for Concept Notes released last week

• To be used to leverage funding from RMA

• Full RFA for new 2008 projects will follow when level of support is determined

North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007North American Cereal Rust Workshop, St. Paul MN – April 2007

Obstacles to expanding the Obstacles to expanding the network?network?

– Funding

– Collaboration building

– Capacity in diagnostic labs

– Capacity of extension specialists