New Challenges for Defining Fusion Requirements
Dr. James LlinasResearch Professor, Executive Director
Center for Multisource Information FusionUniversity at Buffalo and CUBRC
MSU /Army Research Laboratory Knowledge Integration Management Center of Excellence (KIMCOE) Workshop October 2006
Outline• Conflict in the Modern World: Brief Thoughts• Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of
Data and Information Fusion1. Challenges of Robustness and Scalability
2. Network-centric Warfare/Network-enabled Capability
3. Effects-based Operations
4. Operational Net Assessment
5. The Information Landscape: PMESII
• The Way Forward
The Expanding Framework of Conflict*
• “To be very clear: The form warfare takes could still extend into state-on-state conflict, as in the case of a Chinese modernization process gone wrong; but it could also include terrorism, insurgency, information war, and much else. The critical issue is the foundational dynamics of conflict, the causes of all of these various forms of warfare”
• The major question for DF process designers—Design for highly-agile robustness or sets of systems with bounded capabilities in a Networked or Federated Architecture??
* Taken from Mazarr, M.J., “Extremism, Terror, and the Future of Conflict”, Policy Review, March 2006
Spectrum of Warfare*
*Smith, E.A., “Complexity, Networking, and Effects-based Approaches to Operations”, CCRP Publications, 2005
Need Metrics (based on Observables) that typify changes in a Domain
And Theories that explain Performance as a fct of Domain Metrics
Challenge 1: Robustness and Scalability
Domain Parameter x
Domain Parameter y
Per
form
ance
Problem Space Parameter x
Problem Space Parameter yP
erfo
rman
ce
Domain A
Domain B
ROBUSTNESS: Extensibility ACROSS Problem Domains
SCALABILITY: Extensibility WITHIN a Problem Domain
ProblemSegment A
ProblemSegment B
Operational Trajectory
Strategies for Robustness/Scalability
• Options– Various compensation strategies at the performance
edges of given algorithms– Search for the “golden algorithm”– Employ (but manage) multiple algorithms
• In concert—eg hybrid systems (eg deductive/inductive)
• In sequence—manage instantiation/termination sequences– Requires knowledge of calibrated performance as a fct of
(observable) Problem Space parameters
Scalability via Intelligently-Managed Algorithms
Observable Problem Space Parameter Pi
Observable Problem Space Parameter Pj
NotionalAlgorithmPerformance
Algorithm 1
Algorithm 2Dynamic Problem Space Trajectory
L4 Intelligent Algorithm Mgr--terminate Algor 1--invoke Algor 2
RequiredPerformanceRange
Adaptive Sensor Fusion ArchitectureDARPA/CMIF, AFRL/IF-ASF, XDA
XDA Encapsulation
LibraryAdapter
ExistingComponentXDA API
XDA Pgmmrs API
Native Data
Control
The Future (?)—Autonomic Data Fusion Systems*
• Self-Configuration: Automatic configuration of components; • Self-Healing: Automatic discovery, and correction of faults; • Self-Optimization: Automatic monitoring and control of resources to ensure the
optimal functioning with respect to the defined requirements; • Self-Protection: Proactive identification and protection from arbitrary attacks.
* Sterritt, R. and Bustard, D., “Towards an Autonomic Computing Environment”, 14th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications, 2003
Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of Data and Information Fusion
2. Network-centric Warfare/Network-enabled Capability
-- Service-oriented Architectures
-- Communities of Interest
Impacts of NCW / NEC
SOA Overarching Framework for Interconnection--Basic “Enterprise” Services--
FunctionalService iFunctional
Service iFunctionalService iFunctional
Service iFunctionalService iFunctional
Service iFunctionalService iFunctional
Service iFunctionalService i
Data Fusion FunctionalService i
Improved, Agile WarfightingAnd Mission Effectiveness
New PatternsOf
Behavior
New PatternsOf
Behavior
New PatternsOf
Behavior
“Communities of Interest”
NCW
Impacts toDF
Service Design
New Ways of :-Arch/Fctl design
-Dec-Mkg-Analysis
-Assessment
?
CoreEnterpriseServices
(CES)
Comms
Backbone
Community-of-Interest (COI) Capabilities
Users
MessagingESM
Discovery Collaboration
Mediation Security/IA
AppStorage
UserAsst
Levels of Services above
core level
C2
Intel
Weapon Systems
Dynamically Created COIs Logistics
Sensors Personnel
Finance
Etc.
GIG: Net-Centric Enterprise Services (NCES)
A “Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA)” aka“Service-Based Architecture (SBA)”
The User Side of the GIG :“Communities of Interest” *
User/Entity
• Installations & Environment• Human Resources• Strategic Planning & Budget• Accounting & Finance• Logistics• Acquisition
Business Mission Area ••••••
Allied/ Coalition& Multi-national
Domain COI
Capabilities
Specialized functional area information and services
ICOrg SpacesExpedient COIs
C r o s s D o m a i n C O I s
Institutional COIs
Information Exchange
Core Enterprise Services (CES)
ICSIS Community Space
User Assistant
Storage Messaging IA/Security
IA/SecurityESM
IA/SecurityESM
IA/SecurityESM
Discovery
IA/SecurityESM
IA/SecurityESM
IA/SecurityESM
Mediation
IA/SecurityESM
IA/SecurityESM
IA/SecurityESM
IA/SecurityESM
ESM
IA/Security
Application
CollaborationEnterprise
ServiceManagement
(ESM)
Con
trol
led
Info
Exc
hang
e
Con
trol
led
Info
Exc
hang
e (C
IE)
WarfightingMission
Area
Enterprise Information Environment Mission Area
Transformational Communications (TC) & Computing Infrastructure
National Intelligence
Domain
* R. Walker Brfg DISA April 2004
NetCentric
EnterpriseServices
AutomatedFunctionalSupport(eg Fusion)
Mixed-InitiativeDynamics
COI Dynamics in Network-Centric Warfare
ProblemSpace
Dynamics
Inter-humanDynamics
EmergentForm
Self-synchronization
Consensus-formation, Sensemaking
Self-organization
Complex Adaptive System
Agility,Speed
Decisions,Actions, Effects
C2 COI
Mission—Tasking—Cmdrs Intent
VirtualDynamics
HybridDynamics
Human-AgentDynamics
Operating “On the Edge of Chaos”
(1) A. Ilachinski, “An Artificial-Life Approach to War”, Ctr for Naval Analyses brfg, http://www.cna.org.isaac/.(2) Final report, Sensemaking Symposium, CCRP pgm, Oct 2001
(1) (2)
Non-creative,Non-agile
But good for well-definedproblems
Chaotic
CAS
Conventional OrganZone of Operation Must
Adapt To Both
Requires “Organizationally-adaptive” Data Fusion processes
Challenge 2: NCW/NEC Implications
• Designing the DF/IF capability as a Dynamically-composable Service
• Understanding the informational requirements of users operating in COI/CAS-type environments—and building DF/IF processes that address those needs– “pursue no optima”– “persistent disequilibrium”
• Developmental demands:– Entirely new algorithmic paradigms (perhaps)– Adaptation in providing fused estimates across different
COI structures– “campaigns of experimentation”– Large-scale statistically-designed experiments
3. Effects-based Operations
• Challenge 3 Fusion Requirements: – Support SA for:
• Task Nomination (which are situationally-dependent) • Dynamic Influence Diagram/Causal Link Updating
– Monitor “Effects” (Effects Indicators; BDA-type fct)
Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of Data and Information Fusion
Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of Data and Information Fusion
4. Operational Net Assessment (JFCOM)
C m dr'sG uida nc e
E ffe c tsA n a lys is
ISRASSE TS
E m be dde dG a m ing
a ndR o ute
E s tim a tio n
N o m ina te d B L U EA c tio n
o rR e s o urc e U tiliza tio n
C o nte xtua lD a ta a nd
Info rm a tio n
M U L T I-P E R S P E C T IV EB L U E F U S IO N P R O C E S S E s t i m ate d
R e dC O A
A da ptive IS R S e ns o rM a na g e m e nt
B lue V ie wo f B lue
B lue V ie wo f R e d
B lue V ie wo f (R e d V ie w o f B lue )
B lue V ie wo f (R e d V ie w o f R e d )
B l ue Se l f-aw ar e ne s sand Vul ne r abi l i t i e s
Inhe re ntT hre a t
P e rc e ive d T hre a tby R e d
R e d's S e lf-a w a re ne s s
* Vane, R., et al, “Urban Sunrise”, AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2004-22, Final Technical Report, February 2004
DOMAIN
Cognitive(Synapseware)
the Human Mind and heart
Information(Software)
abstract symbolism and electronics
Physical (Hardware)
matter
Disciplinesof Study
•Epistemology•PsychologyIssues of existenceand consciousness
•Logic•Information theoryIssues of symbolicrepresentation,manipulation (mathand language) andknowledge
•PhysicsIssues of matter andenergy
Objects ofAnalysis
•Human will•Ideas,thoughts,knowledge
•Symbols,uncertainty,
•Mass,energy
DirectIntelligence
•SIGINT•NETINT•HUMINT
•IMINT•MASINT•HUMINT
ROLE
WillDecide
Perceive
ComputeTransfer
Symbolize
Sense
Multiple State Layers*
Red view of Red
Red view of BlueStrengths/Vulnerabilities
- Political- Military - Economic- Social- Infrastructure- Information
ObjectiveStrategies
- Diplomatic- Information- Military- Economic
Strengths/Vulnerabilities- Political- Military - Economic- Social- Infrastructure- Information
Blue view of Blue
Blue view of RedStrengths/Vulnerabilities
- Political- Military - Economic- Social- Infrastructure- Information
ObjectiveStrategies
- Diplomatic- Information- Military- Economic
Strengths/Vulnerabilities- Political- Military - Economic- Social- Infrastructure- Information
War Game
Figure 2. Blue View/Red View.
Challenge 4: Fusion Requirements to Support ONA
(Blue’s estimates of: )
Cognitive Symbolic Physical Blue-Blue Blue-Red Blue(Red-Blue) Blue(Red-Red)
12 State Estimates !!
5. The Information Challenge: PMESII
PMESII = Political, Military, Economic, Infrastructure, Information
Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of Data and Information Fusion
Way Ahead
• So many paradigms, so little time• An Evolutionary Path toward satisfying these new
requirements needs to be developed, while also conceptualizing / developing a Fusion Framework for Future Capability—to define the End Point
• Serious assessments of the potential (or boundaries) for automated inferencing capabilities needs to be revisited
• Extraordinarily important to define rational roles for humans as components of a Holistic Fusion Process—Fusion in the face of modern-day complexities and technological limits must exploit human capability in a more synergistic way
Conflict in the Modern World: Brief Thoughts*
• “…warfare is a product of international politics, and the form warfare takes is closely related to its causes: In the reasons for war, we will find clues as to the sorts of wars we will fight.”
• “Some of the documents of the Office of Force Transformation point to a broader agenda, but if we look at the practical efforts of the Defense Department — where its budget goes, what its troops are trained to do, how its operations are conducted — the emphasis remains stubbornly on the force-on-force route to military victory.”
• …and also for R&D, at least in a proportional sense (Llinas)
* Largely taken from Mazarr, M.J., “Extremism, Terror, and the Future of Conflict”, Policy Review, March 2006
More from Mazarr
• “Mostly the change is in why it is fought, which carries implications for the nature of battle and warfare”
• “The essential truth about the future of conflict is not to be found in information warfare or Netwar or Fourth Generation War. The bigger truth is that the nature of conflict has already shifted from a largely rational enterprise waged by elite-dominated states conducted in pursuit of power objectives, to the product of mass psychological trauma attendant to modernization”