Measurement and Evaluation of energy savings in households and road transport in the UK
Dan StaniaszekDirector of Evaluation, Energy Saving Trust
3 March 2005
In support of the Directive...
“The cheapest, cleanest and safest way of addressing our energy policy objectives is to use less energy”
Source:- UK Government ENERGY WHITE PAPER “Our energy future - creating a low carbon
economy”, February 2003
Examples of Monitoring and Verification Tools in practice
• The Energy Efficiency Commitment
• Homes Energy Efficiency Database
• A Transport Example
• Periodic overview
What is the Energy Efficiency Commitment?
• An obligation on energy suppliers/retailers (electricity and gas) to achieve an energy saving target through household energy efficiency
• Overall target set by Government; apportioned to individual suppliers according to their size
• Administration and verification carried out by Energy Regulator (Ofgem)
Meeting the EEC Target
• Target is energy savings
• Different fuels weighted by Carbon content
• Individual measures assigned an energy saving score - derived from engineering data, models and empirical research
EEC - Verification in Practice
• Energy suppliers submit reports to Ofgem on individual energy efficiency initiatives
• Ofgem audits a random sample of each supplier scheme to check eligibility, measures in place, savings estimates realistic etc.
• Government directly funds monitoring work to verify/refine energy savings (NB used to be built into the EEC programme costs)
What is the Homes Energy Efficiency Database (HEED)?
• A repository of installed/purchased energy efficiency measures throughout the UK
• A means to assist in monitoring and reporting the uptake of energy efficiency
• A means to assist in targeting of effort
HEED – key features
Database that records at individual property level:-
• Physical characteristics of individual homes
• Energy efficiency measures installed
• Potential for energy efficiency measures
• History of improvements – all measures date-stamped
• Capacity to store all 25 million UK properties
Two main types of data
Measures HEED Surveys
Typical Data Sources
• Energy suppliers
• Government fuel poverty schemes
• Energy Advice Centres
• Local authorities/Housing Associations
• Energy Saving Trust programmes
• Retail outlets & appliance manufacturers
• House builders
• Home Condition Reports
HEEData Online
• An online tool replacing ‘stand alone’ version
• Integrates with postcode address matching
• Scheme specific configuration (eg EEC, Warm Front)
• Data stored at EST
• Release April/May 2005
Typical Evaluation methodology for programmes run by EST
• Assess current market situation – key drivers, barriers etc
• Programme rationale and objectives
• Quantify key outputs – grants, number of consumers advised, web contacts, funding allocated etc
• Undertake surveys of programme participants (and if appropriate, non-participants)
An example from Transport
• Review of Emissions Savings from PowerShift Programme (grants for cleaner fuelled vehicles)
• Similar methodology used for CleanUp (primarily an air quality programme)
PowerShift Evaluation – Methodology
• PowerShift funds many different vehicle and technology combinations (390 in 03-04 FY)
• ‘Comparator’ vehicles defined to give a baseline
• Emissions benefits per km (c.f. comparator vehicles)
• Annual mileages and vehicle lifetimes defined by:– use of published data
– direct survey of fleet operators & local authorities
• Emissions savings adjusted to account for in-use deterioration and emission testing results
PowerShift Performance Since 1997
Total Lifetime Carbon Saving, and Vehicles Funded
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
Year
Lif
etim
e C
arb
on
Sav
ing
s (t
on
nes
)
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Nu
mb
er o
f F
un
ded
Veh
icle
s
Carbon Saving
Vehicle Numbers
PowerShift Performance Since 1997 (2)Total Lifetime NOx and PM Saving
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
Year
Life
time
NO
x S
avin
gs (k
g)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Life
time
PM
Sav
ings
(kg)
NOx Saving
PM Saving
All UK
Carbon Cost-Effectiveness By Technology Type
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
Year
Car
bo
n S
aved
(kg
/£)
LPG Carbon kg/£
Nat Gas Carbon kg/£
Electric Carbon kg/£
Hybrid Carbon kg/£
PowerShift Cost-Effectiveness by Technology (kgC/£)
PowerShift Lifetime Emissions Savings (tonnes)
03-04 FY Programme to date (97-04)
Carbon 21,657 26,506
NOx 1,233 2,599
PM 71 180
Cost-Effectiveness of Emissions Savings03-04 FY Programme to date (97-04)
Carbon(£/tonne)
£355 £991
NOx (£/kg) £6 £10
PM (£/kg) £108 £146
Bringing it all together
• Government in the process of reviewing the Climate Change Programme
– progress since 2000;
– Need for policies to meet 2010 goals
• Evaluation of individual policies (historic or existing)
• Appraisal of potential new policies
• Analysts peer review individual results
• Collective assessment/comparison to identify synergies/overlaps
• Due to report Summer 2005
Concluding Remarks
• Monitoring and Verification of savings is both doable and necessary
• Difficulties and uncertainties exist, but no “show stoppers”
• Practitioners (eg EST and other agencies across EU) have many years of experience
• The Directive would provide the impetus for greater consistency and sharing of expertise
• Clearer evidence-base for energy efficiency savings will establish a more level playing field between energy supply and demand side options