Measurement and Evaluation of energy savings in households and road transport in the UK

Dan StaniaszekDirector of Evaluation, Energy Saving Trust

3 March 2005

In support of the Directive...

“The cheapest, cleanest and safest way of addressing our energy policy objectives is to use less energy”

Source:- UK Government ENERGY WHITE PAPER “Our energy future - creating a low carbon

economy”, February 2003

Examples of Monitoring and Verification Tools in practice

• The Energy Efficiency Commitment

• Homes Energy Efficiency Database

• A Transport Example

• Periodic overview

What is the Energy Efficiency Commitment?

• An obligation on energy suppliers/retailers (electricity and gas) to achieve an energy saving target through household energy efficiency

• Overall target set by Government; apportioned to individual suppliers according to their size

• Administration and verification carried out by Energy Regulator (Ofgem)

Meeting the EEC Target

• Target is energy savings

• Different fuels weighted by Carbon content

• Individual measures assigned an energy saving score - derived from engineering data, models and empirical research

EEC - Verification in Practice

• Energy suppliers submit reports to Ofgem on individual energy efficiency initiatives

• Ofgem audits a random sample of each supplier scheme to check eligibility, measures in place, savings estimates realistic etc.

• Government directly funds monitoring work to verify/refine energy savings (NB used to be built into the EEC programme costs)

What is the Homes Energy Efficiency Database (HEED)?

• A repository of installed/purchased energy efficiency measures throughout the UK

• A means to assist in monitoring and reporting the uptake of energy efficiency

• A means to assist in targeting of effort

HEED – key features

Database that records at individual property level:-

• Physical characteristics of individual homes

• Energy efficiency measures installed

• Potential for energy efficiency measures

• History of improvements – all measures date-stamped

• Capacity to store all 25 million UK properties

Two main types of data

Measures HEED Surveys

Typical Data Sources

• Energy suppliers

• Government fuel poverty schemes

• Energy Advice Centres

• Local authorities/Housing Associations

• Energy Saving Trust programmes

• Retail outlets & appliance manufacturers

• House builders

• Home Condition Reports

HEEData Online

• An online tool replacing ‘stand alone’ version

• Integrates with postcode address matching

• Scheme specific configuration (eg EEC, Warm Front)

• Data stored at EST

• Release April/May 2005

Typical Evaluation methodology for programmes run by EST

• Assess current market situation – key drivers, barriers etc

• Programme rationale and objectives

• Quantify key outputs – grants, number of consumers advised, web contacts, funding allocated etc

• Undertake surveys of programme participants (and if appropriate, non-participants)

An example from Transport

• Review of Emissions Savings from PowerShift Programme (grants for cleaner fuelled vehicles)

• Similar methodology used for CleanUp (primarily an air quality programme)

PowerShift Evaluation – Methodology

• PowerShift funds many different vehicle and technology combinations (390 in 03-04 FY)

• ‘Comparator’ vehicles defined to give a baseline

• Emissions benefits per km (c.f. comparator vehicles)

• Annual mileages and vehicle lifetimes defined by:– use of published data

– direct survey of fleet operators & local authorities

• Emissions savings adjusted to account for in-use deterioration and emission testing results

PowerShift Performance Since 1997

Total Lifetime Carbon Saving, and Vehicles Funded

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04

Year

Lif

etim

e C

arb

on

Sav

ing

s (t

on

nes

)

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Nu

mb

er o

f F

un

ded

Veh

icle

s

Carbon Saving

Vehicle Numbers

PowerShift Performance Since 1997 (2)Total Lifetime NOx and PM Saving

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04

Year

Life

time

NO

x S

avin

gs (k

g)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Life

time

PM

Sav

ings

(kg)

NOx Saving

PM Saving

All UK

Carbon Cost-Effectiveness By Technology Type

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04

Year

Car

bo

n S

aved

(kg

/£)

LPG Carbon kg/£

Nat Gas Carbon kg/£

Electric Carbon kg/£

Hybrid Carbon kg/£

PowerShift Cost-Effectiveness by Technology (kgC/£)

PowerShift Lifetime Emissions Savings (tonnes)

03-04 FY Programme to date (97-04)

Carbon 21,657 26,506

NOx 1,233 2,599

PM 71 180

Cost-Effectiveness of Emissions Savings03-04 FY Programme to date (97-04)

Carbon(£/tonne)

£355 £991

NOx (£/kg) £6 £10

PM (£/kg) £108 £146

Bringing it all together

• Government in the process of reviewing the Climate Change Programme

– progress since 2000;

– Need for policies to meet 2010 goals

• Evaluation of individual policies (historic or existing)

• Appraisal of potential new policies

• Analysts peer review individual results

• Collective assessment/comparison to identify synergies/overlaps

• Due to report Summer 2005

Concluding Remarks

• Monitoring and Verification of savings is both doable and necessary

• Difficulties and uncertainties exist, but no “show stoppers”

• Practitioners (eg EST and other agencies across EU) have many years of experience

• The Directive would provide the impetus for greater consistency and sharing of expertise

• Clearer evidence-base for energy efficiency savings will establish a more level playing field between energy supply and demand side options