HARMO, Garmisch, 01.06.2004 1
LONG-TERM MODEL CALCULATIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER AND PHOTO-OXIDANTS
FROM REGIONAL TO LOCAL SCALE WITH FOCUS ON NORTH-RHINE WESTPHALIA
M. Memmesheimer, E. Friese, H.J. Jakobs, H. Feldmann, C. Kessler, G. Piekorz, A. Ebel
ANA nhd TIME: 30.09.97 18.00 UTC
DuisburgEssen
Düsseldorf
Rhein
Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research, University of Cologne (RIU)
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OVERVIEW1. Motivation2. EURAD Model3. Results
• Annual runs 1997, (2002-2005-2010)• Comparison with measurements• Emission Scenarios
4. Conclusions and future plans9th Harmonisation Conference
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MODEL OUTPUTFocus on air pollutants relevant for EU-DD(health effects, effects on vegetation)
Near surface layer:PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, NOx, O3
More available from 3D-CTM:VOCs, NH3, particle size and compositionDeposition, vertical resolution
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EURAD-SYSTEM• Meteorology: MM5, input from
ECMWF or NCEP
• Emissions: EEM, input fromavailable emission data (e.g. TNO, EMEP, local, EDGAR)
• Chemistry: EURAD-CTM, MADE, Cloud chem. (aq.), RACM or RADM2, RACM-MIM
• Nesting option for localapplication
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MODEL DESIGNHorizontal grid resolution (km): 125 – 25 – 5 – 1
23 layers from the surface to the upper boundary
Near surface-layer about 40 m thick
15 layers below 3000 m
Upper boundary about 16 km (100 hPa)
Annual run for 1997: 125 – 25 – 5 km
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Europeds = 125 km
Central Europeds = 25 km
NRWds = 5 km
Vertical: 23 layersLowest layer: about 40 mUpper boundary: about 15 km
Sequential nesting
Chemica Weather forecast
www.eurad.uni-koeln.dedistrict
ds = 1 km9th Harmonisation Conference
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NESTING
2 5 10 20 30 50 70 100 150
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA 97aeh TIME: 30.09.97 6.00 UTC
2 5 10 20 30 50 70 100 150
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA 97aeh TIME: 30.09.97 6.00 UTC
2 5 10 20 30 50 70 100 150
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA 97aeh TIME: 30.09.97 6.00 UTC
50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA nhd TIME: 30.09.97 6.00 UTC
Sept. 30, 06 UTC, 1997
High pressure system
Over Central Europe
PM10 concentrationmore than 150 µg/m3
PM10
ANABEL-Projekt LUA NRW
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HARMO, Garmisch, 01.06.2004 850 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA nhd TIME: 30.09.97 6.00 UTC
PM10 – N3 (1 km grid size)
0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10 20 50
ANA LUA97 TIME: 01.10.97 6.00 UTC
DuisburgEssen
Düsseldorf
DuisburgEssen
Düsseldorf
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Nitrogen Oxides – N3 (1 km)
10 25 50 70 90 120 150 200 250
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA nhd TIME: 30.09.97 18.00 UTC
0.1 0.2 0.5 1 5 10 20 50 150
ANA LUA97_V6 TIME: 01.10.97 6.00 UTC
Duisburg
Düsseldorf
EssenEssenDuisburg
Düsseldorf
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NOx – PM10 – ANNUAL NOX: annual average 1997 PM10: number of days > 50 [µg/m3]
KO
ES
DO
DU
DUBO
WU
BI
BO
GE
MU
MO
AA
KR
OB
HAKA
HE
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MU
SO
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NERE
PA
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BO
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KO
BE
WIMO
WA
AP EN
AR
MA
HE
KO
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DO
DU
DUBO
WU
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BO
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MU
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AA
KR
OB
HAKA
HE
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MU
SO
LE
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NERE
PA
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BO
SI
KO
BE
WIMO
WA
AP EN
AR
MA
HE
NOX limit value: 30 µg/m3 PM10 limit value: 35 days
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SCATTER DIAGRAMM PM10
PM10, daily average, TMS-stations, ANA
1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997
0 50 100 150 200observed data [ug/m**3]
0
50
100
150
200
mod
el d
ata
CT
M 9
7aeh
N2
[ug
/m**
3]
n = 15458corr = 0.714
Sep. - Nov.Jun. - Aug.Mar. - MayDec. - Feb.
Daily average
Based on hourly values
PM10 from NRW stations only
PM10 = 0.83*TSP
Underestimation in summer
(Nest 2 results, 5 km grid res.)
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Emission ScenarioNo anthropogenic Emissions in NRW (noNRW)
50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA 97aeh TIME: 29.09.97 0.00 UTC
50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA noNRW TIME: 29.09.97 0.00 UTC
5 11 16 22 28 34 40 45 51
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA 97aeh TIME: 29.09.97 0.00 UTC
50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA noNRW TIME: 29.09.97 18.00 UTC
50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA 97aeh TIME: 29.09.97 18.00 UTC
9 17 26 35 44 53 62 71 80
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
ANA 97aeh TIME: 29.09.97 18.00 UTC
Left: Base Case
Middle: noNRW
Right: Difference
Wind turns fromSoutheast to Southwest
Base Case Scenario Difference
PM10
Sept. 29, 1997
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Emission-Scenario noNRW
NOx
PM10
27. Sep., 0 UTC - 2. Oct. 1997, 23 UTC
0
50
100
150
200
250
NO
x [p
pbV
]
27. 9. 28. 9. 29. 9. 30. 9. 1. 10. 2. 10.
Observed, Mean = 57.7
CTM 97aeh N2, Mean = 57.5, FD = 0.001
CTM noNRW N2, Mean = 8.8, FD = 0.734
ANA, NOx Koeln.Chorweiler stattype = vheight = 45 m
lat = 51.02lon = 6.89 CTM 97aeh N2: xko = 18.69 , yko = 19.77 , lev = 1
CTM noNRW N2: xko = 18.69 , yko = 19.77 , lev = 1
27. Sep., 0 UTC - 2. Oct. 1997, 23 UTC
0
100
200
300
400
PM10
[ug/
m3 ]
27. 9. 28. 9. 29. 9. 30. 9. 1. 10. 2. 10.
Observed, Mean = 113.8
CTM 97aeh N2, Mean = 85.3, FD = 0.142
CTM noNRW N2, Mean = 66.4, FD = 0.263
ANA, PM10 Koeln.Chorweiler stattype = vheight = 45 m
lat = 51.02lon = 6.89 CTM 97aeh N2: xko = 18.69 , yko = 19.77 , lev = 1
CTM noNRW N2: xko = 18.69 , yko = 19.77 , lev = 1
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COMPOSITION
DAILY AVERAGE
1. Jan. - 31. March 2002
0
20
40
60
80
100
TSP
[ug/
m3 ]
daily
ave
rage
Jan. Feb. March
ObservedANTHBSOAASOAEC
OCNO3-
NH4+
SO42-
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan. Feb. March
ObservedAPA N2, TSP Nettetal stattype = v
height = 49 mlat = 51.33lon = 6.20 CTM apa N2: xko = 9.44 , yko = 26.59 , lev = 1
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Emission-Reduction NH3 (local)Sensitivity, Change in %12.04.2002, 12 UTC
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
APA 50nh3 TIME: 12.04.02 12.00 UTC
-45 -35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 45
LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)
APA 50nh3 TIME: 12.04.02 12.00 UTC
PM10NH3
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PM10: 2002 – (2005) - 2010ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10 - 2002 ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10 - 2010
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PM10: Changes (%) 2002 – 2005 - 2010ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10: 2005 - 2002 ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10: 2010 - 2002
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PM10: 2002 - 2005 - 2010
NUMBER OF DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE > 50 µg/m3
2002 2010
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PM10: 2002 – (2005) - 2010# OF DAYS (2010) - # OF DAYS (2002)2002
NUMBER OF DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE > 50 µg/m3
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HEMISPHERIC SIMULATION- 29 layers
- Upper boundary: 10 hPa
- Hor. grid size: 100 km
- EDGARV3.2 emissiondata
- Meteorology: MM5
Ozone, lowest layer, August 13, 1997, 12 UTC
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VerificationVerification: Germany: 09 August 2003: Germany: 09 August 2003Ozone (Ozone (µµg/mg/m33), ), dailydaily MaximumMaximum
Observation (UBA) Forecast (EURAD)
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SUMMARY
• In general good agreement between observation and model for „PM10“ (but: underestimation in summer)
• Problems with incomplete and/or not harmonizedemission data
• Long range transport is important for backgroundconcentrations
• Composition of particles has not been investigated in detail yet, but: secondary aerosols are important
• Lack of information in the vertical (LIDAR, satellite)
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FUTURE PLANS
• Long-term calculations for 2002, 2005, 2010
• Hemispheric version (long-term, forecast)
• Data assimilation to improve air pollution forecast
• General improvement of model numerics, physics and chemistry9th Harmonisation Conference
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AcknowledgementsLandesumweltamt Nordrhein-Westfalen (LUA)Umweltbundesamt (UBA)Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), AFO2000EU EUROTRAC-2 (GLOREAM)EMEPTNOFord Research Center Aachen (FFA)Regionales Rechenzentrum der Universität zu Köln (RRZK/ZAIK))Research Center Jülich (ICG-II, ZAM/NIC)National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)NCEPGerman Weather Service (DWD)
CITY-DELTA INITIATIVE
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Aerosol Chemistry in MADE
Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for EURAD/Europe
(Binkowski et al., 1995, Ackerman et al., 1998, Schell et al, 2001)
Aerosol dynamics (included)Coagulation,nucleation, condensation-evaporationCloud-aerosol interactionDiffusion, advectionDry deposition, sedimentationdMi
k/dt=nukik+coagii
k+coagijk
+condik+sinki
k+emiik
Mik:=kth Moment of ith Mode
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OBS – MODEL: COMPOSITIONNH4
+, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA
1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997
0 5 10 15 20 25observed data [ug/m**3]
0
5
10
15
20
25
mod
el d
ata
CT
M 9
7aeh
CG
[ug
/m**
3] n = 5368corr = 0.609
Sep. - Nov.Jun. - Aug.Mar. - MayDec. - Feb.
NO3-, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA
1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997
0 20 40 60observed data [ug/m**3]
0
20
40
60
mod
el d
ata
CT
M 9
7aeh
CG
[ug
/m**
3] n = 4514corr = 0.588
Sep. - Nov.Jun. - Aug.Mar. - MayDec. - Feb.
SO42-, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA
1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997
0 10 20 30observed data [ug/m**3]
0
10
20
30
mod
el d
ata
CT
M 9
7aeh
CG
[ug
/m**
3] n = 24037corr = 0.360
Sep. - Nov.Jun. - Aug.Mar. - MayDec. - Feb.
TSP, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA
1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997
0 50 100 150 200observed data [ug/m**3]
0
50
100
150
200
mod
el d
ata
CT
M 9
7aeh
CG
[ug
/m**
3] n = 6402corr = 0.439
Sep. - Nov.Jun. - Aug.Mar. - MayDec. - Feb.
Observation from EMEP
Ammonium
Nitrate
Sulfate
TSP
NH4NO3
SO4 TSP
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Emission-Reduction NH3
KO
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AP EN
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WU
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BO
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MU
MO
AA
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OB
HAKA
HE
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MU
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NERE
PA
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BO
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BE
WIMO
WA
AP EN
AR
MA
HE
NH3 (red)/NH3(Basis) [%] PM10 (red)/ PM10 (Basis) [%]
LUA-Projekt APART
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PM10: 2002 – (2005) - 2010MAX. DAILY AVERAGE PM10 - 2010MAX. DAILY AVERAGE: PM10 - 2002
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PM10: Changes (%) 2002 – 2005 - 2010MAX. DAILY AVERAGE PM10: 2005 - 2002 MAX. DAILY AVERAGE PM10: 2010 - 2002
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PM10: 2002 - 2005 - 20102002 2005
NUMBER OF DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE > 50 µg/m3
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FUTURE PLANS• Extension of the modelling system to hemispheric scale
to treat the intercontinental transport of pollutants• Coupling of models with satellite data (4DVar-data
assimilation including aerosols)• Gaps in observation (vertical, composition)• Improvement and harmonization of emission data• Process-oriented model evaluation, composition, size• Multiphase chemistry• Modal sectional• Coupling of clouds and aerosols
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