LONG-TERM MODEL CALCULATIONS OF Co h a e PARTICULATE ... · HARMO, Garmisch, 01.06.2004 2 OVERVIEW 1. Motivation 2. EURAD Model 3. Results • Annual runs 1997, (2002-2005-2010) •

HARMO, Garmisch, 01.06.2004 1

LONG-TERM MODEL CALCULATIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER AND PHOTO-OXIDANTS

FROM REGIONAL TO LOCAL SCALE WITH FOCUS ON NORTH-RHINE WESTPHALIA

M. Memmesheimer, E. Friese, H.J. Jakobs, H. Feldmann, C. Kessler, G. Piekorz, A. Ebel

ANA nhd TIME: 30.09.97 18.00 UTC

DuisburgEssen

Düsseldorf

Rhein

Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research, University of Cologne (RIU)

9th Harmonisation Conference

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http://www.afo-2000.de/001/home/content2.html

http://www.bmbf.de/

http://www.lua.nrw.de/


OVERVIEW1. Motivation2. EURAD Model3. Results

• Annual runs 1997, (2002-2005-2010)• Comparison with measurements• Emission Scenarios

4. Conclusions and future plans9th Harmonisation Conference

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MODEL OUTPUTFocus on air pollutants relevant for EU-DD(health effects, effects on vegetation)

Near surface layer:PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, NOx, O3

More available from 3D-CTM:VOCs, NH3, particle size and compositionDeposition, vertical resolution


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EURAD-SYSTEM• Meteorology: MM5, input from

ECMWF or NCEP

• Emissions: EEM, input fromavailable emission data (e.g. TNO, EMEP, local, EDGAR)

• Chemistry: EURAD-CTM, MADE, Cloud chem. (aq.), RACM or RADM2, RACM-MIM

• Nesting option for localapplication


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MODEL DESIGNHorizontal grid resolution (km): 125 – 25 – 5 – 1

23 layers from the surface to the upper boundary

Near surface-layer about 40 m thick

15 layers below 3000 m

Upper boundary about 16 km (100 hPa)

Annual run for 1997: 125 – 25 – 5 km


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Europeds = 125 km

Central Europeds = 25 km

NRWds = 5 km

Vertical: 23 layersLowest layer: about 40 mUpper boundary: about 15 km

Sequential nesting

Chemica Weather forecast

www.eurad.uni-koeln.dedistrict

ds = 1 km9th Harmonisation Conference

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NESTING

2 5 10 20 30 50 70 100 150

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

ANA 97aeh TIME: 30.09.97 6.00 UTC

2 5 10 20 30 50 70 100 150

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

ANA 97aeh TIME: 30.09.97 6.00 UTC

2 5 10 20 30 50 70 100 150

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

ANA 97aeh TIME: 30.09.97 6.00 UTC

50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)


Sept. 30, 06 UTC, 1997

High pressure system

Over Central Europe

PM10 concentrationmore than 150 µg/m3

PM10

ANABEL-Projekt LUA NRW


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HARMO, Garmisch, 01.06.2004 850 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)


PM10 – N3 (1 km grid size)

0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10 20 50

ANA LUA97 TIME: 01.10.97 6.00 UTC

DuisburgEssen

Düsseldorf

DuisburgEssen

Düsseldorf


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Nitrogen Oxides – N3 (1 km)

10 25 50 70 90 120 150 200 250

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)


0.1 0.2 0.5 1 5 10 20 50 150

ANA LUA97_V6 TIME: 01.10.97 6.00 UTC

Duisburg

Düsseldorf

EssenEssenDuisburg

Düsseldorf


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NOx – PM10 – ANNUAL NOX: annual average 1997 PM10: number of days > 50 [µg/m3]

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NOX limit value: 30 µg/m3 PM10 limit value: 35 days


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SCATTER DIAGRAMM PM10

PM10, daily average, TMS-stations, ANA

1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997

0 50 100 150 200observed data [ug/m**3]

0

50

100

150

200

mod

el d

ata

CT

M 9

7aeh

N2

[ug

/m**

3]

n = 15458corr = 0.714

Sep. - Nov.Jun. - Aug.Mar. - MayDec. - Feb.

Daily average

Based on hourly values

PM10 from NRW stations only

PM10 = 0.83*TSP

Underestimation in summer

(Nest 2 results, 5 km grid res.)


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Emission ScenarioNo anthropogenic Emissions in NRW (noNRW)

50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

ANA 97aeh TIME: 29.09.97 0.00 UTC

50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

ANA noNRW TIME: 29.09.97 0.00 UTC

5 11 16 22 28 34 40 45 51

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

ANA 97aeh TIME: 29.09.97 0.00 UTC

50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

ANA noNRW TIME: 29.09.97 18.00 UTC

50 60 70 80 100 120 150 175 200

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

ANA 97aeh TIME: 29.09.97 18.00 UTC

9 17 26 35 44 53 62 71 80

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

ANA 97aeh TIME: 29.09.97 18.00 UTC

Left: Base Case

Middle: noNRW

Right: Difference

Wind turns fromSoutheast to Southwest

Base Case Scenario Difference

PM10

Sept. 29, 1997


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Emission-Scenario noNRW

NOx

PM10

27. Sep., 0 UTC - 2. Oct. 1997, 23 UTC

0

50

100

150

200

250

NO

x [p

pbV

]

27. 9. 28. 9. 29. 9. 30. 9. 1. 10. 2. 10.

Observed, Mean = 57.7

CTM 97aeh N2, Mean = 57.5, FD = 0.001

CTM noNRW N2, Mean = 8.8, FD = 0.734

ANA, NOx Koeln.Chorweiler stattype = vheight = 45 m

lat = 51.02lon = 6.89 CTM 97aeh N2: xko = 18.69 , yko = 19.77 , lev = 1

CTM noNRW N2: xko = 18.69 , yko = 19.77 , lev = 1

27. Sep., 0 UTC - 2. Oct. 1997, 23 UTC

0

100

200

300

400

PM10

[ug/

m3 ]

27. 9. 28. 9. 29. 9. 30. 9. 1. 10. 2. 10.

Observed, Mean = 113.8

CTM 97aeh N2, Mean = 85.3, FD = 0.142

CTM noNRW N2, Mean = 66.4, FD = 0.263

ANA, PM10 Koeln.Chorweiler stattype = vheight = 45 m

lat = 51.02lon = 6.89 CTM 97aeh N2: xko = 18.69 , yko = 19.77 , lev = 1

CTM noNRW N2: xko = 18.69 , yko = 19.77 , lev = 1


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COMPOSITION

DAILY AVERAGE

1. Jan. - 31. March 2002

0

20

40

60

80

100

TSP

[ug/

m3 ]

daily

ave

rage

Jan. Feb. March

ObservedANTHBSOAASOAEC

OCNO3-

NH4+

SO42-

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan. Feb. March

ObservedAPA N2, TSP Nettetal stattype = v

height = 49 mlat = 51.33lon = 6.20 CTM apa N2: xko = 9.44 , yko = 26.59 , lev = 1


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Emission-Reduction NH3 (local)Sensitivity, Change in %12.04.2002, 12 UTC

-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

APA 50nh3 TIME: 12.04.02 12.00 UTC

-45 -35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 45

LAYER 1 (ca. 0 - 36 m)

APA 50nh3 TIME: 12.04.02 12.00 UTC

PM10NH3


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PM10: 2002 – (2005) - 2010ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10 - 2002 ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10 - 2010


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PM10: Changes (%) 2002 – 2005 - 2010ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10: 2005 - 2002 ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10: 2010 - 2002


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PM10: 2002 - 2005 - 2010

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE > 50 µg/m3

2002 2010


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PM10: 2002 – (2005) - 2010# OF DAYS (2010) - # OF DAYS (2002)2002



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HEMISPHERIC SIMULATION- 29 layers

- Upper boundary: 10 hPa

- Hor. grid size: 100 km

- EDGARV3.2 emissiondata

- Meteorology: MM5

Ozone, lowest layer, August 13, 1997, 12 UTC


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VerificationVerification: Germany: 09 August 2003: Germany: 09 August 2003Ozone (Ozone (µµg/mg/m33), ), dailydaily MaximumMaximum

Observation (UBA) Forecast (EURAD)


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SUMMARY

• In general good agreement between observation and model for „PM10“ (but: underestimation in summer)

• Problems with incomplete and/or not harmonizedemission data

• Long range transport is important for backgroundconcentrations

• Composition of particles has not been investigated in detail yet, but: secondary aerosols are important

• Lack of information in the vertical (LIDAR, satellite)


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FUTURE PLANS

• Long-term calculations for 2002, 2005, 2010

• Hemispheric version (long-term, forecast)

• Data assimilation to improve air pollution forecast

• General improvement of model numerics, physics and chemistry9th Harmonisation Conference

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AcknowledgementsLandesumweltamt Nordrhein-Westfalen (LUA)Umweltbundesamt (UBA)Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), AFO2000EU EUROTRAC-2 (GLOREAM)EMEPTNOFord Research Center Aachen (FFA)Regionales Rechenzentrum der Universität zu Köln (RRZK/ZAIK))Research Center Jülich (ICG-II, ZAM/NIC)National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)NCEPGerman Weather Service (DWD)

CITY-DELTA INITIATIVE


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Aerosol Chemistry in MADE

Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for EURAD/Europe

(Binkowski et al., 1995, Ackerman et al., 1998, Schell et al, 2001)

Aerosol dynamics (included)Coagulation,nucleation, condensation-evaporationCloud-aerosol interactionDiffusion, advectionDry deposition, sedimentationdMi

k/dt=nukik+coagii

k+coagijk

+condik+sinki

k+emiik

Mik:=kth Moment of ith Mode


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OBS – MODEL: COMPOSITIONNH4

+, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA

1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997

0 5 10 15 20 25observed data [ug/m**3]

0

5

10

15

20

25

mod

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CT

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7aeh

CG

[ug

/m**

3] n = 5368corr = 0.609


NO3-, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA

1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997

0 20 40 60observed data [ug/m**3]

0

20

40

60

mod

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ata

CT

M 9

7aeh

CG

[ug

/m**

3] n = 4514corr = 0.588


SO42-, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA

1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997

0 10 20 30observed data [ug/m**3]

0

10

20

30

mod

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ata

CT

M 9

7aeh

CG

[ug

/m**

3] n = 24037corr = 0.360


TSP, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA

1. Jan. - 31. Dec. 1997

0 50 100 150 200observed data [ug/m**3]

0

50

100

150

200

mod

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CT

M 9

7aeh

CG

[ug

/m**

3] n = 6402corr = 0.439


Observation from EMEP

Ammonium

Nitrate

Sulfate

TSP

NH4NO3

SO4 TSP


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Emission-Reduction NH3

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NH3 (red)/NH3(Basis) [%] PM10 (red)/ PM10 (Basis) [%]

LUA-Projekt APART


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PM10: 2002 – (2005) - 2010MAX. DAILY AVERAGE PM10 - 2010MAX. DAILY AVERAGE: PM10 - 2002


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PM10: Changes (%) 2002 – 2005 - 2010MAX. DAILY AVERAGE PM10: 2005 - 2002 MAX. DAILY AVERAGE PM10: 2010 - 2002


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PM10: 2002 - 2005 - 20102002 2005



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FUTURE PLANS• Extension of the modelling system to hemispheric scale

to treat the intercontinental transport of pollutants• Coupling of models with satellite data (4DVar-data

assimilation including aerosols)• Gaps in observation (vertical, composition)• Improvement and harmonization of emission data• Process-oriented model evaluation, composition, size• Multiphase chemistry• Modal sectional• Coupling of clouds and aerosols


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Documents

LONG-TERM MODEL CALCULATIONS OF Co h a e PARTICULATE ... · HARMO, Garmisch, 01.06.2004 2 OVERVIEW 1. Motivation 2. EURAD Model 3. Results • Annual runs 1997, (2002-2005-2010) •