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Irans Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons
Why it Holds Such Importance, and What We Can Do to Prevent it
By: Brett Jackson
October 27th 2012
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Introduction
This being an election year, weve heard a lot of tough rhetoric on both sides
of the isle in respect to the perceived nuclear threat from the Middle Eastern nation
of Iran. Weve heard a lot of talk from both candidates about our unwavering
commitment to our ally in the region Israel, and the setting of various amorphous
metaphorical red lines that would involve our military in yet another boots on the
ground conflict in the Middle East. There is no doubt that a nuclear Iran is a great
threat, not only to the people of the Middle East, but also to our allies Israel, Turkey,
potentially Saudi Arabia, and thusly the United States. It is a huge concern for our
government from a national security standpoint. The question we now face is how
best to approach the problem from all angles; diplomatically, economically, covertly
via the intelligence community, and finally, but lastly militarily if need be.
The best approach from my standpoint is to take an introspective look at the
problem from the perspective of our adversary. We must take a metaphorical walk
in the Iranians shoes if you will, to better understand their reasoning and thought
process behind acquiring a nuclear weapon. I plan to take a look at the main
arguments proposed by scholars accounting for this reasoning, however, I will seek
to convince you, the reader, that this attempt at starting a nuclear arsenal is more
about international and domestic perspective and perception of military strength
and grandeur rather than relative fire-power.
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The Mentality and Culture of Iran
In order to better understand what we are dealing with, I feel that it is
essential that we get a better look at the people and country of Iran. All too often,
we in the United States tend to stereotype and generalize haphazardly when we talk
of our potential foes. (Especially when they are a second or third world nation) It is
very easy to sit and point fingers at a people, claiming that their entire nation is
made up of violent religious extremists, whose only mission is to destroy western
democracy and philosophy at all costs, mainly due to the fact that their voices are
the loudest and most prominent, but that is a dangerous single-minded approach to
this issue. It leads to the conclusion that there is no hope for peaceful relations
between our two nations, that a conflict between Iran and the United States is
inevitable. I for one find this perspective narrow-minded and almost McCarthy-like
in its suggestion. So let us take a broader look at the people of Iran, and its culture.
A nation of around 74,798,599 people, (CIA) The Iranian population has a
huge generational gap, with more than 50% of the nation under the age of 20.
(UNFPA) In fact, the majority of Iranians are in the 20-24 year old age group. It is
the hope of the United States and other nations around the world that we can help
to create a new perception and tolerant relationship with this new generation of
Iranians. The majority of the Iranian population is of Persian decent (51%), and
Persian is the most prominently spoken language in the country. The nation is
considered to be a more developed society, with an average life expectancy around
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the age of 70, a literacy rate of 84.6%, and a growing trend towards urbanization.
(UNFPA)
The current government of Iran follows the Constitution (1979) a product of
the Iranian Revolution. This government, is controlled and managed primarily by
Sharia Law, and is a theologically controlled democracy through the Supreme
Leader of Iran, currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei has supreme authority
in the Iranian government, he is responsible for delineation and supervision of the
general policies of the Islamic Republic, Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces
controls the military intelligence and security operations; and has sole power to
declare war or peace. (UNFPA) The president of Iran, currently Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, falls a distant second to the absolute power of the Supreme Leader.
Ahmadinejad receives a large amount of press and attention from the international
community for making threats and baseless accusations such as the Holocaust
never happened and claiming that Iran will blow Israel off the map. (NYT) This
kind of rhetoric does nothing to sooth concerns over Iran to say the least, but never
the less it is important to remember that the Ayatollah has the authority to wage
and declare war.
There does exist a large amount of anti-US sentiment in Iran, primarily fueled
by the increased presence and involvement of the U.S. Millitary in Iraq and
Afghanistan. To this end, there is a generalization of Americans in Iranian culture as
invaders and imperialists rather than liberators. However, our greatest asset in this
situation is the ability to start a new relationship with the next generation. The
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2006 aimed at forcing Iran to suspend their uranium enrichment program, and to
abide by the IAEA. (UNHCR) These sanctions also sought to freeze the monetary
assets of people that were suspected to be helping the Iranians achieve the goal of
producing a nuclear weapon. Following a more dissident and uncooperative Iran,
further economic sanctions were set in place in the forms of UN Security Council Res
1747, 1803, 1835, 1929. (UNHCR) The last of these has been the most severe,
restricting the travel of prominent Iranian scientists and freezing assets related to
the program and the Iranian government. The European Union passed joint
economic sanctions against Iran, and the nations of Japan, South Korea, Japan,
Switzerland, Israel, India, Australia, and Canada have also passed bi-lateral
sanctions.
The United States sanctions have been the most stringent, almost to the point
of an economic embargo on the nation, limiting the sale of arms and munitions as
well as the sale of commodities and trade with the Iranian government. The hope of
these actions is to limit the Iranian governments ability to make a nuclear weapon,
while simultaneously making the proposition domestically unfavorable and
unpopular with the Iranian people; and by all accounts the measures are having the
desired effect. Irans economic heartbeat runs by the pulse of the production and
shipment of their oil. They are the second largest oil based economic power in the
Middle East. The current sanctions imposed by the United States and the
international community have pushed the $352 billion economy flat on its face.
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According to the World Bank, Irans annual GDP Growth has dropped from
7.8% in 2007 to near approximately 1% in 2010. Just this week The Rials ,Irans
currencys value dropped 40% compared to the U.S. Dollar. (World Bank) There are
pronounced riots and protests, mostly involving a new generation of Iranians,
college students and teenagers rallying against the policies of the Iranian
government in Tehran. (NYT) We are seeing the signs of cultural change and
societal uprising and potential revolution via our economic measures, however we
must remain vigilant that our measures hurt Irans government and members of the
government trying to acquire a weapon, not the people and children of Iran. An
increase in spillover has the potential to sour an already negative perception of the
United States, and make the United States a target of hostility and anger for a new
generation of Iranians. This is the last thing we want or need.
Our current situation sees the United States continuing to implement these
sanctions, while at the same time attempting to achieve a diplomatic environment
aimed at keeping Iran a non-nuclear state. The hope is that these economic
sanctions will force the Iranian government to react, and engage in negotiations
with the United States.
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