Iran’s Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons

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PS 437-001 Boettcher

Irans Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons

Why it Holds Such Importance, and What We Can Do to Prevent it

By: Brett Jackson

October 27th 2012


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Introduction

This being an election year, weve heard a lot of tough rhetoric on both sides

of the isle in respect to the perceived nuclear threat from the Middle Eastern nation

of Iran. Weve heard a lot of talk from both candidates about our unwavering

commitment to our ally in the region Israel, and the setting of various amorphous

metaphorical red lines that would involve our military in yet another boots on the

ground conflict in the Middle East. There is no doubt that a nuclear Iran is a great

threat, not only to the people of the Middle East, but also to our allies Israel, Turkey,

potentially Saudi Arabia, and thusly the United States. It is a huge concern for our

government from a national security standpoint. The question we now face is how

best to approach the problem from all angles; diplomatically, economically, covertly

via the intelligence community, and finally, but lastly militarily if need be.

The best approach from my standpoint is to take an introspective look at the

problem from the perspective of our adversary. We must take a metaphorical walk

in the Iranians shoes if you will, to better understand their reasoning and thought

process behind acquiring a nuclear weapon. I plan to take a look at the main

arguments proposed by scholars accounting for this reasoning, however, I will seek

to convince you, the reader, that this attempt at starting a nuclear arsenal is more

about international and domestic perspective and perception of military strength

and grandeur rather than relative fire-power.


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The Mentality and Culture of Iran

In order to better understand what we are dealing with, I feel that it is

essential that we get a better look at the people and country of Iran. All too often,

we in the United States tend to stereotype and generalize haphazardly when we talk

of our potential foes. (Especially when they are a second or third world nation) It is

very easy to sit and point fingers at a people, claiming that their entire nation is

made up of violent religious extremists, whose only mission is to destroy western

democracy and philosophy at all costs, mainly due to the fact that their voices are

the loudest and most prominent, but that is a dangerous single-minded approach to

this issue. It leads to the conclusion that there is no hope for peaceful relations

between our two nations, that a conflict between Iran and the United States is

inevitable. I for one find this perspective narrow-minded and almost McCarthy-like

in its suggestion. So let us take a broader look at the people of Iran, and its culture.

A nation of around 74,798,599 people, (CIA) The Iranian population has a

huge generational gap, with more than 50% of the nation under the age of 20.

(UNFPA) In fact, the majority of Iranians are in the 20-24 year old age group. It is

the hope of the United States and other nations around the world that we can help

to create a new perception and tolerant relationship with this new generation of

Iranians. The majority of the Iranian population is of Persian decent (51%), and

Persian is the most prominently spoken language in the country. The nation is

considered to be a more developed society, with an average life expectancy around


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the age of 70, a literacy rate of 84.6%, and a growing trend towards urbanization.

(UNFPA)

The current government of Iran follows the Constitution (1979) a product of

the Iranian Revolution. This government, is controlled and managed primarily by

Sharia Law, and is a theologically controlled democracy through the Supreme

Leader of Iran, currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei has supreme authority

in the Iranian government, he is responsible for delineation and supervision of the

general policies of the Islamic Republic, Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces

controls the military intelligence and security operations; and has sole power to

declare war or peace. (UNFPA) The president of Iran, currently Mahmoud

Ahmadinejad, falls a distant second to the absolute power of the Supreme Leader.

Ahmadinejad receives a large amount of press and attention from the international

community for making threats and baseless accusations such as the Holocaust

never happened and claiming that Iran will blow Israel off the map. (NYT) This

kind of rhetoric does nothing to sooth concerns over Iran to say the least, but never

the less it is important to remember that the Ayatollah has the authority to wage

and declare war.

There does exist a large amount of anti-US sentiment in Iran, primarily fueled

by the increased presence and involvement of the U.S. Millitary in Iraq and

Afghanistan. To this end, there is a generalization of Americans in Iranian culture as

invaders and imperialists rather than liberators. However, our greatest asset in this

situation is the ability to start a new relationship with the next generation. The


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2006 aimed at forcing Iran to suspend their uranium enrichment program, and to

abide by the IAEA. (UNHCR) These sanctions also sought to freeze the monetary

assets of people that were suspected to be helping the Iranians achieve the goal of

producing a nuclear weapon. Following a more dissident and uncooperative Iran,

further economic sanctions were set in place in the forms of UN Security Council Res

1747, 1803, 1835, 1929. (UNHCR) The last of these has been the most severe,

restricting the travel of prominent Iranian scientists and freezing assets related to

the program and the Iranian government. The European Union passed joint

economic sanctions against Iran, and the nations of Japan, South Korea, Japan,

Switzerland, Israel, India, Australia, and Canada have also passed bi-lateral

sanctions.

The United States sanctions have been the most stringent, almost to the point

of an economic embargo on the nation, limiting the sale of arms and munitions as

well as the sale of commodities and trade with the Iranian government. The hope of

these actions is to limit the Iranian governments ability to make a nuclear weapon,

while simultaneously making the proposition domestically unfavorable and

unpopular with the Iranian people; and by all accounts the measures are having the

desired effect. Irans economic heartbeat runs by the pulse of the production and

shipment of their oil. They are the second largest oil based economic power in the

Middle East. The current sanctions imposed by the United States and the

international community have pushed the $352 billion economy flat on its face.


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According to the World Bank, Irans annual GDP Growth has dropped from

7.8% in 2007 to near approximately 1% in 2010. Just this week The Rials ,Irans

currencys value dropped 40% compared to the U.S. Dollar. (World Bank) There are

pronounced riots and protests, mostly involving a new generation of Iranians,

college students and teenagers rallying against the policies of the Iranian

government in Tehran. (NYT) We are seeing the signs of cultural change and

societal uprising and potential revolution via our economic measures, however we

must remain vigilant that our measures hurt Irans government and members of the

government trying to acquire a weapon, not the people and children of Iran. An

increase in spillover has the potential to sour an already negative perception of the

United States, and make the United States a target of hostility and anger for a new

generation of Iranians. This is the last thing we want or need.

Our current situation sees the United States continuing to implement these

sanctions, while at the same time attempting to achieve a diplomatic environment

aimed at keeping Iran a non-nuclear state. The hope is that these economic

sanctions will force the Iranian government to react, and engage in negotiations

with the United States.


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Iran’s Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons