Integrated Assessment Contribution to TWI 2050
The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Interactive Science Meeting, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 10-12 March 2015
Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology
Strategic objective of TWI2050 initiative
The World in 2050 project will explore the design of sustainable development pathways at the global and regional scales that achieve convergent economic and social development within planetary boundaries
2015 #3 Nakicenovic
Mob
ility
CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.
“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development
Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms
Distribution of the Global Population
Source: WBGU, 2014
Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)
2015 #4 Nakicenovic
Mob
ility
CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.
“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development
Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms
Distribution of the Global Population
Source: WBGU, 2014
Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)
2015 #5 Nakicenovic
B
Mob
ility
CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.
“Safe Space” Unsustainable Development
Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms
Distribution of the Global Population
Source: WBGU, 2014
Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)
2015 #6 Nakicenovic
B
Mob
ility
CO2 – Emisions p.a. & p. cap.
Unsustainable Development
Transformational and “BAU” Paradigms
Distribution of the Global Population
Source: WBGU, 2014
Individual Planetary Boundaries (2-3 tCO2 p.a. & p. cap.)
“Safe Space”
2015 #7 Nakicenovic
The World in 2050 Ü How to secure global development within a safe
and just operating space
Ü Planetary boundaries: e.g. Food; Water; Energy; Biodiversity; Climate Change
Ü “Safe Space” of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives to integrated models
Ü Transformational and BAU scenarios based on existing literature e.g. SSPs, GEA, DDPP
Ü Multiple-benefits of transformational pathways toward the “safe space” compared to BAU
2015 #8 Nakicenovic
Possible Unified Analytical Approach
Ultimate Drivers
Knowledge and Understanding
Power Structure
Culture Values and Needs
Proximate Drivers
Population Economy Technology Governance
Source: Paul Raskin, 2002
Scenario Narratives
Integrated Models
2015 #9 Nakicenovic
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization World
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
Pop
ulat
ion
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
2015 #10 Nakicenovic
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization World, UK, BRICs
UK
BRICs
Pop
ulat
ion
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 #11 Nakicenovic
Primary Education+
Secondary Education+
Global Educational Attainment
Source: Lutz et al., 2007
Pop
ulat
ion
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 #12 Nakicenovic
Participatory Governance
Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; 2010
Participatory
Pop
ulat
ion
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 #13 Nakicenovic
Participatory Governance Slavery Abolishment
Source: Nakicenovic & Rogner, 2012;
Participatory
Abolishment
1863 United States
of America
1906 China
1948 UN Declaration
of Human Rights
Pop
ulat
ion
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 #14 Nakicenovic 2015 #14 Nakicenovic
Cumulative Carbon Emissions
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RCP 2.6
2015 #15 Nakicenovic 2015 #15 Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RCP 2.6
Cumulative Carbon Emissions
2015 #16 Nakicenovic 2015 #16 Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
RCP 2.6
Cumulative Carbon Emissions
Net-negative emissions
2015 #17 Nakicenovic 2015 #17 Nakicenovic
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
Vision: Sustainable Future → Growing number of
actors of change: • green businesses • cities • civil society • science • IGOs (eg, GEF, UNIDO)
Sustainability Transformation “Doing More with Less” within (Planetary) Boundaries
Time
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Diff
usio
n
Source: WBGU, 2011
→ Increasing problem perception
→ Policy regimes
→ Values and norms
2015 #18 Nakicenovic
Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation costs
Source: IPCC, Figure 6.33 and TS
2015 #19 Nakicenovic 2015 #19 Nakicenovic
Water
Food Energy
IIASA-GEF Nexus Research Partnership
2015 #20 Nakicenovic 2015 #20 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MikrochipKommerzielle
Luftfahrt
Fernseher
VakuumröhreOttomotor
Elektrischer Motor
Dampf-maschine
Nuklear-energie
Biomass Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil Gas
Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution
2015 #21 Nakicenovic 2015 #21 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030
Nuclear phase-out (policy)
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Einsparungen Andere E Nuklear Gas Öl Kohle Biomasse
Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear
Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Biomass Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil Gas
~55% renewables by 2030
2015 #22 Nakicenovic 2015 #22 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gm
3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS
Global Water Withdrawals no CCS, no Nuclear
Biomass Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil Gas
Source: Fricko et al, 2014
2015 #23 Nakicenovic 2015 #23 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS
Biomass Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway
2015 #24 Nakicenovic 2015 #24 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS
Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS
Biomass Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway
2015 #25 Nakicenovic 2015 #25 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gm
3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS
Biomass Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil Gas
Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS
Source: Fricko et al, 2014
Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway
2015 #26 Nakicenovic
Science for Transformation ● Better integration across science communities
“Climate or development first” approach too narrow ● More integrated & holistic assessment of climate
change policy in the context of other priorities: – Multi-objective & multi-policy framing to better
understand climate policy tradeoffs & benefits – “Nexus” approaches to reach multiple objectives
simultaneously: energy, water, food & urbanization ● Challenges are huge:
– Different constraints and priorities across scales – Normative goals involved in policy prioritization
Source: Nakicenovic & Riahi, 2014
THANK YOU