Comment voleronsComment volerons--nous en 2050 ? / nous en 2050 ? / FlyingFlying in 2050in 2050Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 -- ToulouseToulouse
Innovative solutions Innovative solutions -- the Bauhaus Luftfahrt the Bauhaus Luftfahrt viewpointviewpoint
Mirko Hornung
Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Session 3 – Les apports de la construction aéronatuique / The contribution of aircraft manufacturing
Executive Director Research and Technology,Bauhaus Luftfahrt
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Aviation in 2040+Aviation in 2040+
Visions, Concepts and Chances of Visions, Concepts and Chances of RealisationRealisation
Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 ConferenceSession 3 – Les apports de la construction aéronatuique / The contribution of aircraft manufacturing
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Agenda
•• About Bauhaus LuftfahrtAbout Bauhaus Luftfahrt
•• Divers of AviationDivers of Aviation
•• Future Concepts & TechnologiesFuture Concepts & Technologies
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Agenda
•• About Bauhaus LuftfahrtAbout Bauhaus Luftfahrt
•• Divers of AviationDivers of Aviation
•• Future Concepts & TechnologiesFuture Concepts & Technologies
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
The Bauhaus Luftfahrt Approach
•• founded in 2005 byfounded in 2005 byoo The Bavarian Ministry of Economic The Bavarian Ministry of Economic
Affairs, Infrastructure, Transport Affairs, Infrastructure, Transport and Technologyand Technology
oo EADS (incl. subsidiaries)EADS (incl. subsidiaries)oo Liebherr AerospaceLiebherr Aerospaceoo MTU Aero EnginesMTU Aero Engines
•• IABG (since 2012)IABG (since 2012)
•• A nonA non--profit research profit research institution with longinstitution with long--term term time horizontime horizon
oo Strengthening the cooperation Strengthening the cooperation between industry, science and politicsbetween industry, science and politics
oo developing new approaches for the developing new approaches for the future of aviation with a high level of future of aviation with a high level of technical creativitytechnical creativity
oo optimizing through a holistic approach optimizing through a holistic approach in science, economics, engineering in science, economics, engineering and designand design
Going Going „„New WaysNew Ways““ for the for the mobility of tomorrowmobility of tomorrow
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Core competences for future mobility
Knowledge Management
Economics and Transportation
Visionary Air Transport Systems
Future Technologies and
Ecology of Aviation
Core competencies
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Agenda
•• About Bauhaus LuftfahrtAbout Bauhaus Luftfahrt
•• Divers of AviationDivers of Aviation
•• Future Concepts & TechnologiesFuture Concepts & Technologies
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
World Population: Welfare & Urbanization
•• Emergence of Emergence of global middle class global middle class (from 400 million people in 2005 (from 400 million people in 2005 to to over one billion in 2030over one billion in 2030) with a ) with a per capita income between the per capita income between the one of Italy and Brazil.one of Italy and Brazil.
•• over 90 % thereof will live in over 90 % thereof will live in developing and emerging developing and emerging countriescountries
•• The The average age average age will increase will increase significantly significantly –– not only in western not only in western industrial nations.industrial nations.
•• The The urbanizationurbanization process will process will increase the number of increase the number of megacities (>10m inhabitants) to megacities (>10m inhabitants) to 26. This growth occurs mainly in 26. This growth occurs mainly in Asia.Asia.
Megacities and world population
Data source: Worldbank,
0
Populationin bn
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1993 20302000
Middle class RichPoor
Global income distribution
0
Populationin m
2000 2030
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
200
The global middle class
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Challenges: Climate Change and Ground Capacity
•• Global aviation produces about Global aviation produces about 1.5 1.5 –– 2 percent of global 2 percent of global greenhouse gas emissionsgreenhouse gas emissions, but , but highhigh--altitudealtitude--effects increase the effects increase the total effect (3 total effect (3 –– 7 percent)7 percent)
•• Peak oil Peak oil
increased increased pressure on pressure on kerosene price and availabilitykerosene price and availability..
•• The possibilities for The possibilities for ground ground capacitycapacity to meet the growing to meet the growing demand will increasingly declinedemand will increasingly decline. .
•• Largest absolute and relative Largest absolute and relative capacity bottleneck capacity bottleneck at large at large airports (80airports (80--120 IFR movements 120 IFR movements per hour).per hour).
Projected capacity bottlenecks in Europe
Electricity and heat
41,0%
Industry20,0%
Residential7,0%
Other10,0% Road
17,1%
International Aviation
1,6%Other3,3%
Transport22%
Global CO2 emissions 2008 in %
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Agenda
•• About Bauhaus LuftfahrtAbout Bauhaus Luftfahrt
•• Divers of AviationDivers of Aviation
•• Future Concepts & TechnologiesFuture Concepts & Technologiesoo Alternative Alternative FuelsFuelsoo Electric FlightElectric Flightoo New New ConfigurationsConfigurations
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Ecology as a Driver of New Technologies
Evolutionary technologydevelopment
Mix:• Evolutionary technologies• Revolutionary technologies• New energy carriers• Increasing specialization
Source: ATAG
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Possible Alternative Fuel Options: Categories
Radiation energy
Chemical energy
Radiation energy
Chemical energy
Electrica l energy
Electrica l energyElectrical
energy
Radiation energy
„Drop-in“ fuel (Example: Biofuels)
„Non-drop-in“ fuel (Example: Hydrogen)
Electrical energy carrier
Sunlight
Biomass
Solar reactor
Photovoltaic panel
Fuel cell
Battery
Combustion engine/ state-of-the-art turbofan
Electric engine
CO2
Cx Hy
O2
H2 O
H2
CO
H2 O
H2
O2
Fischer- Tropsch
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Land Requirements for Biofuels
World consumption of petroleum products for 2005
Total Consumption 4200 Mt
Jet Fuel 230 Mt
European agricultural land for 2005 250 Mha
Fraction of agricultural land needed for 100% jet fuel substitution by BTL process (Willow) 20 Mha
Jet fuel consumption per region for 2005 (Mt)
North
Amer
ica
Latin
Amer
ica
Euro
pe
CIS
and
Asia
Ocea
nia0
20
40
60
80
Fraction of agricultural land needed for 100% jet fuel substitution by HVO process (Rapeseed) 60 Mha
24%
8%
Sources: EIA, 2008 FAO, 2010 Janzon, 2010
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Agenda
•• About Bauhaus LuftfahrtAbout Bauhaus Luftfahrt
•• Divers of AviationDivers of Aviation
•• Future Concepts & TechnologiesFuture Concepts & Technologiesoo Alternative Alternative FuelsFuelsoo Electric FlightElectric Flightoo New New ConfigurationsConfigurations
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Components and Key Technologies
•• Exergy concept:Exergy concept:oo Exergy = useful fraction of energyExergy = useful fraction of energyoo Main drivers for power systems: exergy content and power densitMain drivers for power systems: exergy content and power densityyoo Net exergy is determined by the conversion efficiencies of each Net exergy is determined by the conversion efficiencies of each individual power individual power
system.system.
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Electric Flight – Feasibility and Scaling
•• Key Indicators of Energy Key Indicators of Energy Technologies: Technologies: oo Exergy density (determined by Exergy density (determined by
range and MTOW)range and MTOW)oo Power density (determined by Power density (determined by
MTOWMTOW))
•• Progress in battery Progress in battery technology is the key for technology is the key for electric electric flyingflying
•• SpinSpin--in technologies outside in technologies outside the field of aviation offer the field of aviation offer significant innovation significant innovation potential for electric flyingpotential for electric flying
Relative exergy density
Typical short and medium range narrowbody airliner
Light man-carrying electric aircraft
Single-seated fuel cell powered motor glider
Relative power density
Battery
Fuel cell
to enable sufficient range
to enable flight
6150 NM (fix)
300 NM
New materials and electrode structures
Specific Exergy [Wh/kg]
Spec
ific
Pow
er [W
/kg]
101
102 104103
105
104
103
102
10
20% efficiency gain
Pb
NiCd NiMH NaCl
Lithium
HighEnergy
HighPower
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Hybrid Electric Power System Architectures
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Agenda
•• About Bauhaus LuftfahrtAbout Bauhaus Luftfahrt
•• Divers of AviationDivers of Aviation
•• Future Concepts & TechnologiesFuture Concepts & Technologiesoo Alternative Alternative FuelsFuelsoo Electric FlightElectric Flightoo New ConfigurationsNew Configurations
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Innovative Configurations – Morphing
•• Active Active PolyPoly--morphingmorphingoo Improved vehicular efficiencyImproved vehicular efficiencyoo Extended range and/or loiterExtended range and/or loiteroo Expanded flight envelopeExpanded flight envelopeoo Enhanced primary and Enhanced primary and
secondary flight controlsecondary flight control
•• Variable Camber ProfilesVariable Camber Profilesoo Reduced fuel burn and Reduced fuel burn and
external noiseexternal noiseoo Enhanced highEnhanced high--lift lift
performanceperformance
•• MultiMulti--functionalityfunctionalityoo Reduced weight & billReduced weight & bill--ofof--
material costmaterial costoo Maneuver Load ControlManeuver Load Controloo Gust Load AlleviationGust Load Alleviation
Adaptive Wing
Empennage Morphing
Additional Body Flaps
Adapt. Wing-Fuse Fairing
Seamless HL/VC Devices
Adaptive Tail Cone
Adaptive Fuselage
Adaptive Propulsion
Adjustable Landing Gear
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Hybrid Power Systems
•• Different types of power Different types of power transmission are possibletransmission are possible
•• Electric power transmission Electric power transmission opens up a variety of opens up a variety of possible aircraft possible aircraft architectures using electric architectures using electric componentscomponents
MechanicTransmission
PneumaticTransmission
Electric Transmission
© BHL (Yearbook 2011)
•• Hybrid Electric ArchitecturesHybrid Electric Architectures
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
The Propulsive Fuselage Concept
•• Motivation: Ingestion of the Motivation: Ingestion of the complete fuselage boundary layercomplete fuselage boundary layer
•• 21 % of total drag21 % of total drag (up to 35 % for laminar lifting (up to 35 % for laminar lifting surfaces)surfaces)
•• Possible Power Saving of 5 Possible Power Saving of 5 –– 10 %10 %
Low specific thrust realizableLow specific thrust realizable
Linear electromag. drive & bearingLinear electromag. drive & bearing
•• Selected as upper bound for BLI Selected as upper bound for BLI efficiency potentialefficiency potential
•• No circumferential fan distortionNo circumferential fan distortion•• High ratio of ingested drag to High ratio of ingested drag to
thrustthrust•• Keep drawbacks in mindKeep drawbacks in mind•• Propulsor redundancyPropulsor redundancy•• Aircraft rotation Aircraft rotation ……© BHL
© BHL
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Future Radiation Shielding Nanocomposites
•• Application Application potential of potential of nanomaterials for shielding nanomaterials for shielding cosmic radiation in aviationcosmic radiation in aviation
•• RelevanceRelevanceoo Future trends in growing Future trends in growing
polar route frequencies and polar route frequencies and cruising altitudescruising altitudes
oo Polar routes Polar routes
Average annual RPK growth rate Average annual RPK growth rate within 10 years 37% within 10 years 37%
Economic bonding between Asia Economic bonding between Asia and USA and USA
•• ConsequenceConsequenceoo Increasing level of radiation Increasing level of radiation
exposure exposure
Radiation hazard to Radiation hazard to aircrew/frequent flyersaircrew/frequent flyers
Risk for avionics failuresRisk for avionics failures
Economical penaltiesEconomical penalties
„„Nowcast of Atmosperic Ionizing Nowcast of Atmosperic Ionizing Radiation for Aviation SafetyRadiation for Aviation Safety““ (NAIRAS) model (cf. figure) (NAIRAS) model (cf. figure) under under development at NASAdevelopment at NASA
Provide Provide guideline for airline route guideline for airline route planningplanning
Assess cost and risk of polar routesAssess cost and risk of polar routes
[Altitude/latitude dependence of cosmic radiation dose rates before and during a solar storm, Mertens et al., Space Weather
(2010)]
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Claire-Liner: Vision for Mass Transportation
•• Investigation of an alternative Investigation of an alternative configuration for shortconfiguration for short--toto--medium medium haul operations in Asiahaul operations in Asia
•• Propulsion Attributes:Propulsion Attributes:oo UltraUltra--high Byhigh By--pass Ratios (up to pass Ratios (up to
20.0)20.0)oo Intercooled and recuperative core Intercooled and recuperative core
cyclecycleoo Technical Risks Technical Risks
Transmission & Transmission & Heat managementHeat management
•• WingWing--body Attributes:body Attributes:oo Reduction in lift dependent dragReduction in lift dependent dragoo Lower structural specific weightLower structural specific weightoo Smaller sizing for given mission Smaller sizing for given mission
roleroleoo Technical Risks:Landing gear Technical Risks:Landing gear
integration, stability & controintegration, stability & contro
Hôtel de rHôtel de réégion Midigion Midi--PyrPyréénnéées es –– 3030--31 May 2012 31 May 2012 –– ToulouseToulouse-- Mirko HornungMirko Hornung
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Comment volerons-nous en 2050 / Flying in 2050 Conference
Contact
•• Prof. Dr. Mirko HornungProf. Dr. Mirko Hornung Director Science & TechnologyDirector Science & Technology Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V. LyonelLyonel--FeiningerFeininger--StraStraßße 28e 28 80807 Munich80807 Munich GermanyGermany
•• Tel.: +49 (0) 89 3 07 48 49 Tel.: +49 (0) 89 3 07 48 49 -- 00 Fax: +49 (0) 89 3 07 48 49 Fax: +49 (0) 89 3 07 48 49 –– 2020 [email protected]@bauhaus-- luftfahrt.netluftfahrt.net
•• http://www.bauhaushttp://www.bauhaus--luftfahrt.netluftfahrt.net