Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Fisheries (and Coasts) as Systems
Anthony CharlesSaint Mary’s University, Halifax Canada
AnthonyCharles.ca
External Environment
Policy andPlanning
ResourceManagement
ResourceDevelopment
ResourceResearch
NATURAL ECOSYSTEM
Community
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
HUMAN SYSTEM
UserGroups
ResourceTechnology
Resource Users
Community
Households
Processing& Marketing
(4)
SocioeconomicEnvironment
ExternalForces
(eg. governmentdownsizing)
External Forces(eg. macroeconomic policies)
External Forces(eg. climate change)
(1) User conflicts(2) Technological conflicts(3) Community economics and social interactions(4) Marketing channels
P = processingD = distributionM = marketW = wholesaleR = retailC = consumers
Relevant Resources
Habitat
1 2
3
P
D
M
W
R
C
(I) Fisheries as Systems at Multiple Scales
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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AnthonyCharles.ca
FleetFish
Harvest
Market
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Fishery Systems
AnthonyCharles.ca
Fishery System
Fish Stock
Broaden thePerspective
EcosystemApproach
Fishers
Broaden thePerspective
LivelihoodsApproach
A Systems Approach
A Systems Approach:
• Incorporates the approach of Ecosystem-Based Management
• Adds human dimensions
• Incorporates a ‘bigger picture’ around fish and fishers, which combines both ecosystem- and human-centred thinking…
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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AnthonyCharles.ca
External Environment
Policy andPlanning
ResourceManagement
ResourceDevelopment
ResourceResearch
NATURAL ECOSYSTEM
Community
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
HUMAN SYSTEM
UserGroups
ResourceTechnology
Resource Users
Community
Households
Processing& Marketing
(4)
SocioeconomicEnvironment
ExternalForces
(eg. governmentdownsizing)
External Forces(eg. macroeconomic policies)
External Forces(eg. climate change)
(1) User conflicts(2) Technological conflicts(3) Community economics and social interactions(4) Marketing channels
P = processingD = distributionM = marketW = wholesaleR = retailC = consumers
Relevant Resources
Habitat
1 2
3
P
D
M
W
R
C
Adapted from A. Charles, Sustainable Fishery Systems, Blackwell Science, Oxford
UK (2001).
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Source: Garcia et al. (2003)AnthonyCharles.ca
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Science community
Integrated model&
Assessment
Public / Stakeholders
Participatoryprocess
Analyticalprocess
Values,Knowledge
IssuesGoals Policy makers
Regulations
Facts, Data
Advice
Options
Validation
Expectations
Communication
ModelsScenarios
Mental modelsPerceptions
Experts Stakeholders
by Serge GarciaAnthonyCharles.ca
Complex System
AdaptiveSystem
CARIBBEAN
(with P. McConney, UWI Barbados)
MARINE SES
HUMANSYSTEM
COASTALRESOURCE
SYSTEM
Reeffish
Mangrove Seagrass
Coral reef
FishingTourism
AgricultureShipping
Multi-Sectoral Systems
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Scale
Local
FishingGround
FishingCommunity
ManagementRegion
NationalJurisdiction
MultipleNations
EcosystemMultiple
EcosystemsLarge-scale
Spatial Scale
Daily In-Season Annual Multi-Year Long TermTimeScale
ManagementPortfolio
Objectivesand Policy
OperationalManagement
TacticalManagement
StrategicManagement
LocalOpenings
CatchMonitoring
SettingTAC
AnthonyCharles.ca
Organizational Scales
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Northwest Atlantic
Gulf of Maine
Gulf of Maine
Bay of Fundy
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Bay of Fundy
Annapolis Basin
Annapolis Basin, Nova Scotia
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Annapolis Basin, Nova Scotia
Tidal power
Clam Harvest
Stream Restoration
Fish Farms
Sewage Spills
Agricultural Run-off
(II) Ingredients of a Systems Approach
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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A Systems Perspective
Governance
Livelihoods
Well‐Being
Resilience Adaptation
Climate Change
Level & Scale
Communities
AnthonyCharles.ca
1. Values
Building consensusValuing community
Food security
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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2. Objectives
3. Pillars of Sustainability
Ecological Sustainability
Institutional Sustainability
Social Economic Sustainability Sustainability
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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4. System Drivers• Climate Change
• Demand Shifts
• Globalization of Markets
• Technological Change
• Urbanization
• Evolving Governance
AnthonyCharles.ca
AnthonyCharles.ca
5. Governance
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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5a. Participation
CommunityParticipation
FisherParticipation
Government Participation
The Triangle of Co-Management
AnthonyCharles.ca
5b. Some Ingredients of Good Governance
1. Get the Rights Right
2. Support Local Communities
3. Deal with Equity & Power Issues
4. See the the Bigger Picture
Charles, A. and L. Wilson (2009) Human dimensions of Marine Protected Areas. ICES Journal of Marine Science 66: 6-15.
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Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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6. Coping with Uncertainty
The solution is Robust Management which seeks ‘reasonable’ success in meeting fishery objectives, even when faced with:
– faulty understanding of the fishery system;
– highly imperfect capability to control resource use.
Fallacy of ControllabilityIllusion of Certainty
AnthonyCharles.ca
Approaches for Robust Management
• Incorporate a precautionary approach within policy
• Mutually-reinforcing management ‘portfolio’
• Mechanisms to facilitate adaptation/learning
• Use all sources of knowledge
• Promote local management and stewardship
• Self-regulatory institutions, appropriate use rights
• Diversity: Multiple species, multiple livelihoods
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Integrated Indicator Frameworks
MEASURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
APPLICATION OF THE GENUINE PROGRESS INDEX TO NOVA SCOTIA
THE NOVA SCOTIA GPIFISHERIES & MARINE ENVIRONMENT
ACCOUNTS
A PRELIMINARY SET OF ECOLOGICAL,SOCIOECONOMIC AND INSTITUTIONAL
INDICATORS FOR NOVA SCOTIA’SFISHERIES AND MARINE ENVIRONMENT
Prepared by:Anthony Charles
Heather BoydAmanda LaversCheryl Benjamin
– Ecological Indicators– Social Indicators– Economic Indicators– Community Indicators– Institutional Indicators
AnthonyCharles.ca
7. Monitoring
A Broad Range of IndicatorsEconomic
Total Landed Value
Total Processed Value
Fishery Gross Domestic Product
Value of Fishery Exports
Profit per Fisher
Return on Investment
Depreciation in Natural Capital
Value of Ecosystem Services
Diversity of Employment Sources
Economic Diversity
Debt Levels of Fishers
Social
Employment
Equity
Community well-being
Diversity of employment
Institutional
Acceptability of governance Robustness of management
Management portfolio
Participation in decision-making
Effectiveness of incentives
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Mean trophic level in fishery, 1972–2007
(weighted by landed weight)
3.53.5
3.43.3
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5 3.5
3.63.6
3.73.6
3.6
3.53.5
3.4 3.43.4
3.4
3.2
3.13.0
3.13.13.0
3.0
2.92.92.92.82.9
2.92.92.9
3.3
3.4
3.23.2
3.1
3.03.0
3.1
3.23.1
3.23.2
3.33.33.2
3.23.2
3.1 3.1
3.23.2
3.1
3.03.0
3.1
3.03.02.9
2.82.8 2.82.82.82.92.92.9
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Mea
n T
roph
ic L
evel
Total Landings Excluding Cod
25.5
22.1
20.8
20.8 22
.9
21.7
22.7
8.9 10
.9
42.0 44
.4 48.2
43.2
49.8 52
.1
51.4 55
.2
45.7
32.5
33.5
31.0 36
.1
27.3
26.2
26.1
35.9
43.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1931 1941 1951 1971 1981 1986 1991 2001 2006Year
15-24 25-44 45-64
Age distribution of fishers in Nova Scotia, 1931–2006
(in three age classes)
Novel Indicators
AnthonyCharles.ca
(III) Local Fishery/Coastal Systems
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Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Successful community environmental stewardship, sustainable livelihoods, and government engagement.
AnthonyCharles.ca
www.CommunityConservation.net
CCRN Research Themes
Meaning of Conservation
Social-Ecological Systems Lens
Motivation for Conservation
Governance of Conservation
Conservation & Livelihood Outcomes
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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AnthonyCharles.ca www.CommunityConservation.net
(IV) Addressing a Global Policy Issue through a Spatial Bioeconomic Model
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Global Policy: Protected Areas
• Through the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the world has agreed on increasing the amount of protected areas globally, to reach certain targets.
• This target is treated on a country by country basis, so signatory countries are now working to reach this target.
• In the ocean, the target is 10% of ocean space by 2020, using Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), ocean areas designated for protection, e.g., in fishery closures, no-take areas, zoning.
AnthonyCharles.ca
What are the Impacts of this Global Policy & Creation of MPAs?
• MPAs may have benefits e.g. protecting spawning/juvenile fish; consumptive and non-consumptive uses; existence/option values.
• There are also costs. In particular, an MPA can cause winners and losers… notably if the MPA is ‘no-take’, no fishing is allowed, so what happens to those who traditionally fished inside the area?– compensate for loss of livelihood or provide alternative employment
– allow continued fishing within the no-take zone
– provide fishing rights to nearest stock outside MPA
• All of these can cause negative impacts on the fishing people!
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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A Bioeconomic ModelCharles, A. 2010. Fisheries and marine protected areas: A spatial bioeconomic analysis of distributional impacts.
Natural Resources Modeling 23(2):218-252.
• multiple fish stocks {Si} self-reproducing but intermingling
• multiple fishing communities {Ci} arrayed along a coastline
Fish Stocks 0 1
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10
0 1
Fishing Communities
AnthonyCharles.ca
The Model: Implementing an MPA MPA
0 a b 1 0 1 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 0 1
AnthonyCharles.ca
Note: If the MPA includes stock Si, then the set of communities most directly affected includes corresponding community Ci
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Population Dynamics
Next year’s stock = survival from last year + in-migration from adjoining areas + recruitment into stock
s = survival rate; r = intrinsic growth rate; K = carrying capacity
m = fraction of post-fishery fish migrating in each direction
k = fractional increase in carrying capacity inside the MPA
(Ability to produce new fish depends on ecosystem health)
Xi,n+1 = (1-2m)s(Xi,n-hi,n)
+ ms(Xi-1,n-hi-1,n) + ms(Xi+1,n-hi+1,n)
+ r(Xi,n-hi,n)[1-(Xi,n-hi,n)/K(1+kMPA)]
AnthonyCharles.ca
Fishing Process
• Assume fishery regulated / limited by effort (time)
• Assume N fishers per community, f trips each per year
• Assume time T is available per trip
• ttravel (j) = time required to and from fishing ground
• Annual fishing effort per capita N f [T-ttravel (j)]
• Harvest of the ith stock by community j in year n:
hi,j,n = q Xi,n N f [T-ttravel (j)]
where Xi,n = size of ith stock Si in year n
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Fisher Economics
j,n= ph - ctravelNfttravel - cfishingNf[T-ttravel] - Ncfixed
Profit for each fisher in community j in year n
= Gross revenue - ‘Steaming Costs’ - Fishing Costs - Fixed Costs
Negative impacts on fishery profits due to:
• extra costs to travel further to their new fishing grounds;
• less time available for fishing due to greater travel time;
• crowding on the fishing grounds outside the MPA
• (also possible opposition to those entering new fishing areas)
AnthonyCharles.ca
Results: No MPA
Profits 'Inside' vs Outside MPA
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25
Year
Pro
fit
Adjacent MPA Distant
PV, Profits and Stock Size
0.0
20.0
40.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stock/Community
PV
, Pro
fits
& S
toc
ks
PV/25 Average Profit Fin Stock Size
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Results: Typical Scenario
Profits 'Inside' vs Outside MPA
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25
Year
Pro
fit
Adjacent MPA Distant
PV, Profits and Stock Size
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stock/CommunityP
V, P
rofi
ts &
Sto
ck
s
PV/25 Average Profit Fin Stock Size
AnthonyCharles.ca
Results: Displaced can be Winners with Sufficient Ecosystem Benefits
Profits 'Inside' vs Outside MPA
0.0
41.5
1 5 9 13 17 21 25
Year
Pro
fit
Adjacent MPA Distant
PV, Profits and Stock Size
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stock/Community
PV
, Pro
fits
& S
toc
ks
PV/25 Average Profit Fin Stock Size
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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Results: Displaced can be Winners with High Migration
PV, Profits and Stock Size
0.0
20.0
40.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Stock/CommunityP
V, P
rofi
ts &
Sto
ck
s
PV/25 Average Profit Fin Stock Size
Profits 'Inside' vs Outside MPA
0.0
41.5
1 5 9 13 17 21 25
Year
Pro
fit
Adjacent MPA Distant
AnthonyCharles.ca
Policy Impacts of MPAs: Conclusions
• The design of an MPA can affect its acceptance - especially if an MPA is mis-placed or mis-sized.
• Acceptance issues can arise through the distribution of benefits and costs arising from an MPA.
• This model helps to identify factors leading to distributional issues in creation of MPAs, relating to impacts on fishers.
• Unless ecosystem benefits of a no-take MPA are large, those displaced will be disadvantaged more than others.
• Possible remedies: avoid no-take MPAs, provide suitable compensation measures, or ensure that displaced fishers explicitly gain in other ways from the MPA.
AnthonyCharles.ca
Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016
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External Environment
Policy andPlanning
ResourceManagement
ResourceDevelopment
ResourceResearch
NATURAL ECOSYSTEM
Community
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
HUMAN SYSTEM
UserGroups
ResourceTechnology
Resource Users
Community
Households
Processing& Marketing
(4)
SocioeconomicEnvironment
ExternalForces
(eg. governmentdownsizing)
External Forces(eg. macroeconomic policies)
External Forces(eg. climate change)
(1) User conflicts(2) Technological conflicts(3) Community economics and social interactions(4) Marketing channels
P = processingD = distributionM = marketW = wholesaleR = retailC = consumers
Relevant Resources
Habitat
1 2
3
P
D
M
W
R
C
AnthonyCharles.ca
Thank You!