HUMAN SYSTEM as Systems Anthony Charles · Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016 4 AnthonyCharles.ca External Environment Policy and Planning Resource Management Resource Development

Workshop on Social Simulation of Fisheries and Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016

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Fisheries (and Coasts) as Systems

Anthony CharlesSaint Mary’s University, Halifax Canada

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External Environment

Policy andPlanning

ResourceManagement

ResourceDevelopment

ResourceResearch

NATURAL ECOSYSTEM

Community

MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

HUMAN SYSTEM

UserGroups

ResourceTechnology

Resource Users

Community

Households

Processing& Marketing

(4)

SocioeconomicEnvironment

ExternalForces

(eg. governmentdownsizing)

External Forces(eg. macroeconomic policies)

External Forces(eg. climate change)

(1) User conflicts(2) Technological conflicts(3) Community economics and social interactions(4) Marketing channels

P = processingD = distributionM = marketW = wholesaleR = retailC = consumers

Relevant Resources

Habitat

1 2

3

P

D

M

W

R

C

(I) Fisheries as Systems at Multiple Scales

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FleetFish

Harvest

Market

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Fishery Systems

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Fishery System

Fish Stock

Broaden thePerspective

EcosystemApproach

Fishers

Broaden thePerspective

LivelihoodsApproach

A Systems Approach

A Systems Approach:

• Incorporates the approach of Ecosystem-Based Management

• Adds human dimensions

• Incorporates a ‘bigger picture’ around fish and fishers, which combines both ecosystem- and human-centred thinking…

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Policy andPlanning

ResourceManagement

ResourceDevelopment

ResourceResearch

NATURAL ECOSYSTEM

Community

MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

HUMAN SYSTEM

UserGroups

ResourceTechnology

Resource Users

Community

Households


(4)


ExternalForces






Relevant Resources

Habitat

1 2

3

P

D

M

W

R

C

Adapted from A. Charles, Sustainable Fishery Systems, Blackwell Science, Oxford

UK (2001).

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Source: Garcia et al. (2003)AnthonyCharles.ca

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Science community

Integrated model&

Assessment

Public / Stakeholders

Participatoryprocess

Analyticalprocess

Values,Knowledge

IssuesGoals Policy makers

Regulations

Facts, Data

Advice

Options

Validation

Expectations

Communication

ModelsScenarios

Mental modelsPerceptions

Experts Stakeholders

by Serge GarciaAnthonyCharles.ca

Complex System

AdaptiveSystem

CARIBBEAN

(with P. McConney, UWI Barbados)

MARINE SES

HUMANSYSTEM

COASTALRESOURCE

SYSTEM

Reeffish

Mangrove Seagrass

Coral reef

FishingTourism

AgricultureShipping

Multi-Sectoral Systems

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Scale

Local

FishingGround

FishingCommunity

ManagementRegion

NationalJurisdiction

MultipleNations

EcosystemMultiple

EcosystemsLarge-scale

Spatial Scale

Daily In-Season Annual Multi-Year Long TermTimeScale

ManagementPortfolio

Objectivesand Policy

OperationalManagement

TacticalManagement

StrategicManagement

LocalOpenings

CatchMonitoring

SettingTAC

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Organizational Scales

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Northwest Atlantic

Gulf of Maine

Gulf of Maine

Bay of Fundy


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Bay of Fundy

Annapolis Basin

Annapolis Basin, Nova Scotia


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Annapolis Basin, Nova Scotia

Tidal power

Clam Harvest

Stream Restoration

Fish Farms

Sewage Spills

Agricultural Run-off

(II) Ingredients of a Systems Approach

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A Systems Perspective

Governance

Livelihoods

Well‐Being

Resilience Adaptation

Climate Change

Level & Scale

Communities

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1. Values

Building consensusValuing community

Food security

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2. Objectives

3. Pillars of Sustainability

Ecological Sustainability

Institutional Sustainability

Social Economic Sustainability Sustainability

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4. System Drivers• Climate Change

• Demand Shifts

• Globalization of Markets

• Technological Change

• Urbanization

• Evolving Governance

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5. Governance


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5a. Participation

CommunityParticipation

FisherParticipation

Government Participation

The Triangle of Co-Management

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5b. Some Ingredients of Good Governance

1. Get the Rights Right

2. Support Local Communities

3. Deal with Equity & Power Issues

4. See the the Bigger Picture

Charles, A. and L. Wilson (2009) Human dimensions of Marine Protected Areas. ICES Journal of Marine Science 66: 6-15.

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6. Coping with Uncertainty

The solution is Robust Management which seeks ‘reasonable’ success in meeting fishery objectives, even when faced with:

– faulty understanding of the fishery system;

– highly imperfect capability to control resource use.

Fallacy of ControllabilityIllusion of Certainty

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Approaches for Robust Management

• Incorporate a precautionary approach within policy

• Mutually-reinforcing management ‘portfolio’

• Mechanisms to facilitate adaptation/learning

• Use all sources of knowledge

• Promote local management and stewardship

• Self-regulatory institutions, appropriate use rights

• Diversity: Multiple species, multiple livelihoods

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Integrated Indicator Frameworks

MEASURING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

APPLICATION OF THE GENUINE PROGRESS INDEX TO NOVA SCOTIA

THE NOVA SCOTIA GPIFISHERIES & MARINE ENVIRONMENT

ACCOUNTS

A PRELIMINARY SET OF ECOLOGICAL,SOCIOECONOMIC AND INSTITUTIONAL

INDICATORS FOR NOVA SCOTIA’SFISHERIES AND MARINE ENVIRONMENT

Prepared by:Anthony Charles

Heather BoydAmanda LaversCheryl Benjamin

– Ecological Indicators– Social Indicators– Economic Indicators– Community Indicators– Institutional Indicators

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7. Monitoring

A Broad Range of IndicatorsEconomic

Total Landed Value

Total Processed Value

Fishery Gross Domestic Product

Value of Fishery Exports

Profit per Fisher

Return on Investment

Depreciation in Natural Capital

Value of Ecosystem Services

Diversity of Employment Sources

Economic Diversity

Debt Levels of Fishers

Social

Employment

Equity

Community well-being

Diversity of employment

Institutional

Acceptability of governance Robustness of management

Management portfolio

Participation in decision-making

Effectiveness of incentives

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Mean trophic level in fishery, 1972–2007

(weighted by landed weight)

3.53.5

3.43.3

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5 3.5

3.63.6

3.73.6

3.6

3.53.5

3.4 3.43.4

3.4

3.2

3.13.0

3.13.13.0

3.0

2.92.92.92.82.9

2.92.92.9

3.3

3.4

3.23.2

3.1

3.03.0

3.1

3.23.1

3.23.2

3.33.33.2

3.23.2

3.1 3.1

3.23.2

3.1

3.03.0

3.1

3.03.02.9

2.82.8 2.82.82.82.92.92.9

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

Mea

n T

roph

ic L

evel

Total Landings Excluding Cod

25.5

22.1

20.8

20.8 22

.9

21.7

22.7

8.9 10

.9

42.0 44

.4 48.2

43.2

49.8 52

.1

51.4 55

.2

45.7

32.5

33.5

31.0 36

.1

27.3

26.2

26.1

35.9

43.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1931 1941 1951 1971 1981 1986 1991 2001 2006Year

15-24 25-44 45-64

Age distribution of fishers in Nova Scotia, 1931–2006

(in three age classes)

Novel Indicators

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(III) Local Fishery/Coastal Systems

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Successful community environmental stewardship, sustainable livelihoods, and government engagement.

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www.CommunityConservation.net

CCRN Research Themes

Meaning of Conservation

Social-Ecological Systems Lens

Motivation for Conservation

Governance of Conservation

Conservation & Livelihood Outcomes


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(IV) Addressing a Global Policy Issue through a Spatial Bioeconomic Model

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Global Policy: Protected Areas

• Through the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the world has agreed on increasing the amount of protected areas globally, to reach certain targets.

• This target is treated on a country by country basis, so signatory countries are now working to reach this target.

• In the ocean, the target is 10% of ocean space by 2020, using Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), ocean areas designated for protection, e.g., in fishery closures, no-take areas, zoning.

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What are the Impacts of this Global Policy & Creation of MPAs?

• MPAs may have benefits e.g. protecting spawning/juvenile fish; consumptive and non-consumptive uses; existence/option values.

• There are also costs. In particular, an MPA can cause winners and losers… notably if the MPA is ‘no-take’, no fishing is allowed, so what happens to those who traditionally fished inside the area?– compensate for loss of livelihood or provide alternative employment

– allow continued fishing within the no-take zone

– provide fishing rights to nearest stock outside MPA

• All of these can cause negative impacts on the fishing people!

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A Bioeconomic ModelCharles, A. 2010. Fisheries and marine protected areas: A spatial bioeconomic analysis of distributional impacts.

Natural Resources Modeling 23(2):218-252.

• multiple fish stocks {Si} self-reproducing but intermingling

• multiple fishing communities {Ci} arrayed along a coastline

Fish Stocks 0 1

S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10

C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10

0 1

Fishing Communities

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The Model: Implementing an MPA MPA

0 a b 1 0 1 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10

C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 0 1

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Note: If the MPA includes stock Si, then the set of communities most directly affected includes corresponding community Ci


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Population Dynamics

Next year’s stock = survival from last year + in-migration from adjoining areas + recruitment into stock

s = survival rate; r = intrinsic growth rate; K = carrying capacity

m = fraction of post-fishery fish migrating in each direction

k = fractional increase in carrying capacity inside the MPA

(Ability to produce new fish depends on ecosystem health)

Xi,n+1 = (1-2m)s(Xi,n-hi,n)

+ ms(Xi-1,n-hi-1,n) + ms(Xi+1,n-hi+1,n)

+ r(Xi,n-hi,n)[1-(Xi,n-hi,n)/K(1+kMPA)]

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Fishing Process

• Assume fishery regulated / limited by effort (time)

• Assume N fishers per community, f trips each per year

• Assume time T is available per trip

• ttravel (j) = time required to and from fishing ground

• Annual fishing effort per capita N f [T-ttravel (j)]

• Harvest of the ith stock by community j in year n:

hi,j,n = q Xi,n N f [T-ttravel (j)]

where Xi,n = size of ith stock Si in year n

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Fisher Economics

j,n= ph - ctravelNfttravel - cfishingNf[T-ttravel] - Ncfixed

Profit for each fisher in community j in year n

= Gross revenue - ‘Steaming Costs’ - Fishing Costs - Fixed Costs

Negative impacts on fishery profits due to:

• extra costs to travel further to their new fishing grounds;

• less time available for fishing due to greater travel time;

• crowding on the fishing grounds outside the MPA

• (also possible opposition to those entering new fishing areas)

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Results: No MPA

Profits 'Inside' vs Outside MPA

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

1 5 9 13 17 21 25

Year

Pro

fit

Adjacent MPA Distant

PV, Profits and Stock Size

0.0

20.0

40.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Stock/Community

PV

, Pro

fits

& S

toc

ks

PV/25 Average Profit Fin Stock Size

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Results: Typical Scenario


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

1 5 9 13 17 21 25

Year

Pro

fit



0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Stock/CommunityP

V, P

rofi

ts &

Sto

ck

s


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Results: Displaced can be Winners with Sufficient Ecosystem Benefits


0.0

41.5

1 5 9 13 17 21 25

Year

Pro

fit



0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Stock/Community

PV

, Pro

fits

& S

toc

ks


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Results: Displaced can be Winners with High Migration


0.0

20.0

40.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Stock/CommunityP

V, P

rofi

ts &

Sto

ck

s



0.0

41.5

1 5 9 13 17 21 25

Year

Pro

fit


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Policy Impacts of MPAs: Conclusions

• The design of an MPA can affect its acceptance - especially if an MPA is mis-placed or mis-sized.

• Acceptance issues can arise through the distribution of benefits and costs arising from an MPA.

• This model helps to identify factors leading to distributional issues in creation of MPAs, relating to impacts on fishers.

• Unless ecosystem benefits of a no-take MPA are large, those displaced will be disadvantaged more than others.

• Possible remedies: avoid no-take MPAs, provide suitable compensation measures, or ensure that displaced fishers explicitly gain in other ways from the MPA.

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Policy andPlanning

ResourceManagement

ResourceDevelopment

ResourceResearch

NATURAL ECOSYSTEM

Community

MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

HUMAN SYSTEM

UserGroups

ResourceTechnology

Resource Users

Community

Households


(4)


ExternalForces






Relevant Resources

Habitat

1 2

3

P

D

M

W

R

C

AnthonyCharles.ca

Thank You!

Documents

HUMAN SYSTEM as Systems Anthony Charles · Coastal Management June 6‐7 2016 4 AnthonyCharles.ca External Environment Policy and Planning Resource Management Resource Development