Historical Patterns
S Curve Pattern of Adoption
0102030405060708090
100
A B
Time
Sources: CAB, SRI & AC Nielsen
1% 2%8%
13%
23%
46%
59%64%
67%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999
Cable Growth, 1975 - 1999Percent of TV Hshlds Subscribing to Cable
Pricing of Telephone ServiceNew York to Chicago - 3 Minute Call(Current Dollars)
$5.45
$3.35
$1.55 $1.30
$0.45
1902 1927 1946 1968 1999
Source: Historical Statistics of the U.S.; FCC
Average Price of Selected Electronic Products(Current Dollars)
Year Radio Set B&W TV Color TV VCR CD Player
1925 $ 831930 781935 551940 381945 401947 $ 2791950 1901955 138 $ 5001960 132 3921965 3561970 3171975 341 $ 1,1401980 1,1221983 572 $ 7331985 494 3101987 414 2061989 382 218
Source: EIA; Sterling and Haight: Us Dept. of Commerce
Price of Selected Electronic ProductsIn Terms of Weekly Household IncomeNumber Of Weeks Income To Pay For Product
Year Radio Set B&W TV Color TV VCR CD Player
1929 1.8*1947 5.31950 3.31955 1.8* 6.61960 4.11965 3.11970 1.9*1975 6.21980 3.31983 1.4 1.81985 1.1* .71987 .8 .41989 .7 .4
Source: US Department of Commerce
* Year Technology Entered Half of US Households
Average Price Of Home Computers 1981 to 1998
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Dollars
Sources: Dataquest; US Dept of Commerce
Number of Years to Reach 50% Penetration of U.S. Households
Sources: Electronic Industry Association; US Dept. of Commerce; Dataquest
Newspapers 100+Telephone 70Phonograph 55Electricity 43 Cable Television 39FM Radio 30Color Television 17Personal Computer 17Compact Disk Player 15VCR 10AM Radio 9Black & White Television 8
Percentage of U.S. Households With Telephone Service 1900 - 1998
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
'00 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '98Source: US Dept. of Commerce
Replacement Cycles For Electronic Products
Product Average Life Cycle
Cordless Telephone 10 YearsColor TV 8Camcorder 7CD Player 7VCR 6Personal Computer 6Telephone Answering Machine 5Fax 4
Source: Gannett News Service & Appliance
Computer Households With Modems1988 - 1998
0
25
50
75
100
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Source: Veronis & Suhler
Percentage of PC Homes With A Modem
Average Monthly Cellular Phone Bill1987 - 1998
Source: Cellular Telecom Association
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Business Vs Personal Cellular Phone Use(Percentage of Bills Paid By Businesses vs Individuals)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1991 1992 1994 1996 1998
Source: Cellular Telecom Industry Association
Business Use
Personal Use
Share of Radio Audience
0102030405060708090
100
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985
Source: Statistical Research
FM Radio
% of Audience
AM Radio
Current Media Trends
Penetration of Media, 1999 Percentage of U.S. Households With Technology or Service, Jan. 1999
98%
95%
91%
67%
67%
50%
43%
27%
15%
11%
2%
Television
Telephone Service
VCR
Basic Cable
Answering Machine
Home Computer
Cellular Phone
Web Service
Fax
Satellite Dish
DVD
Sources: CEMA; NY Times; Video Business, CTIA
Household Spending on Subscription Video Services - Cable, Satellite, MMDS & SMATV, 1988 - 2002 (Actual & Projected)
41.9
34.3
27.121.519.4
12.416.3
50
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Source: Veronis, Suhler & Assoc.
$ Billion
How U.S. Households Receive TV
Broadcast Only22%
Cable, Satellite or Other78%
Source: SRI; Cable World
Network Primetime Audience Share1977 - 1998
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998
Source: Veronic, Suhler & Assoc.
Broadcast & CableViewing Share and Revenue Share, 1998
Source: Veronis & Suhler
Broadcast TV56.5%
Basic Cable37.2%
Pay Cable6.3%
TV Networks29.2%
TV Stations42.7%
Cable 18.9%
Barter/Syndication4.7%
Total Day Viewing Share Ad Revenue Share
Number of TVs In Households
27%
35%
22%
10%
6%
1 2 3 4 5+
Percentage of Households
Source: SRI CONTAM Survey
Number of TVs
Number of Household Telephones
20%
36%
24%
10%9%
1 2 3 4 5+
Percentage of Households
Number of TelephonesSource: SRI CONTAM Survey
Number of Household PCs
36%
10%
4%
1 2 3+
Percentage of Households
Number of Personal ComputersSource: Cable World Survey
45% of PC owners have a PC and TV in the same room
Spending on Technology in U.S. K-12 Public Schools, 1992 - 1999
2.12.5
2.8
3.63.9
4.3
5.25.4*
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Quality Education Data
$ Billion
* Estimated
Internet Trends
Number of US Households Subscribing ToAn Online/Internet Service Provider, 1985 - 1998
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Source: Veronic & Suhler; Jupiter Communication, Decision Analysts
Millions of Households
Online in 1998: 31% of Adults
27 % of Those Under 18
Education Level of Adult Internet Users, 1998
Less than H.S. 18% 4%
H.S. Grad 34 25
Some College 25 31
College Grad 24 39
Gen. Population Internet Users
Source: US Census Bureau; Pew Research Center
Percentage of Adults Online By Household Income, 1998
11% 13%
45%
70%
48%49%
32%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
>20K 20-29K
30-39K
40-49K
50-74K
75-99K
100K+
Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp
Percentage of Adults Online By Age, 1998
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp
Percentage of Adults OnlineBy Ethnic Group, 1998
35%
17%19%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
White AfricanAmer.
Hispanic Asian &Other
Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp
Gender of Internet Users in the U.S.
Female
Male
1994 1998
48%14%
52%86%
Source: GVU; Pew Research Center
Top 10 Web SitesMost Frequently Visited Web Sites - January, 1999
Source: Media Metrix
1 Yahoo 2 AOL 3 MSN 4 Go 5 Geocities 6 Netscape 7 Excite 8 Lycos 9 Microsoft10 Tripod
Electronic Commerce: Consumer Purchases on the Web
0.7
2.9
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 1997 1998
Billions of Dollars
Source: Forrester Research; WSJ
Have You Ever Shopped on the Web?
8%
33%36%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1995 1996 1997 1998Source: International Data Corp.; Cable World
Percentage of Web Users Who Say They Have Made a Purchase on the Web
Cost To Deliver a 42-Page Document
Internet 3 cents 3 cents
1st Class Mail $3 $7.40
Fedex $15.50 $26.25
Fax $2.40 $16
New York To: Los Angeles Tokyo
Via....
Source: Interactive Week
Cost of Banking Transactions
0.01 0.015
0.27
0.52
1.07
$0.00
$0.40
$0.80
$1.20
Internet PCBanking
ATM Telephone Branch
Cost Per Tranaction
Source: Booz-Allen & Hamilton; US Dept. of Commerce
Growth in Web Advertising Revenue
.06
.27
.91
1.8
0
1
2
1995 1996 1997 1998
Source: Internet Advertising Bureau
Billions of Dollars
Will People Pay for Content on The Web?
WSJ $29-59 275.000
The Street.com 99 25,000
Slate* 20 23,000
ESPN 29-39 235,000
Playboy Cyber Club 72 30,000
Content Source Cost Per Yr Est. Subcribers - 1998
Source: Crain's NY Business
In 1998, subscription revenue was 2 percent of all Web revenue.
* Abandoned subscription model in 1999
International Trends
U.S. $28,766 64.4
Germany 28,685 55.0
New Zealand 17,775 40.6
Brazil 4,909 10.7
China 670 5.6
Kenya 291 0.8
Per Capita GDP($US 1996)
Telephone LinesPer 100 Pop. ('97)
Source: ITU
Per Capital GDP & Telephone Lines
Households With Telephone Service, 1996
34%
16%
94%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
The World DevelopingCountries
DevelopedCountries
Percentage of Households
Source: ITU
Countries With The Most Cellular Subscribers Per 100 Population, 1998
1. Finland 50.92. Norway 46.53. Sweden 45.84. Guam 43.05. Hong Kong 39.06. Israel 37.47. Japan* 36.7
*U.S. ranks 14th with 25.0
Source: The Stratigic Group; USA Today
Rank N of Cell Phones Per 100 People
France 11% 7%
Germany 53 6
UK 11 19
Poland 23 2
Canada 76 3
Brazil 7 2
Japan 16 20
Cable TV Satellite
Source: The Strategis Group
Cable TVand Direct BroadcastSatellite (DBS) Penetration, 1998
Percent of TV HHs
Internet Access in Selected Countries, 1998
Italy 8%
Sweden 25
Hungary 8
Canada 42
Mexico 1
Argentina 2
Japan 14
Australia 11
Source: The Strategis Group
Percentage of Households
Internet Content Worldwide: Language and Source, 1998
Language of Web Sites Source of Web Sites
Other Languages15%
English85%
U.S.80%
Other Countries20%
Source: Fortune
Projected Distribution of World Online Households By Region, 2000
North America57%
38.2 Million HHsEurope
25%16.5 Million HHs
Asia/Pacific Rim15%
10 Million HHs
Other Regions3%
1.9 Million HHs
Source: Jupiter Communications/Multichannel News
Spotlight on China: Technology & Media Usage, 1998
Technology in Households
TV 25%
Telephone Line 3
Personal Computer 1-2
Credit Cards 1-2
Internet <1
China
Population 1.2 Billion
Rural 70%Urban 30%
Source: Grey Advertising; The Industry Standard
Spotlight on China: Technology & Media Usage, 1998...continued
Technology Use By Households In Four Cities*
Source: Grey Advertising; The Industry Standard
Pagers 62%Cell Phone 32Personal Computer 16DVD 3
* Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, & Chengdu
Growth of Web Users
Users
1997 670,0001998 1,200,000
Social Trends That Affect Media Usage
& Impacts of Media
on Social Life
Growth of ATM Machines in the U.S. 1972-1998
Sources: The Nielson Report, Diebold
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 95 97 98
190,000
Growth in Remote Control PenetrationPercentage of TV Households With Remotes
0
20
40
60
80
100
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Sources: EIA, SRI; Video Business
Two-Income Households: Percentage Of Married Couples With Both Spouses Working
22%
29%
39%
47%52%
62%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1997
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Pressed For Time: Percentage of People Who Feel Rushed And Have No Spare Time
30%
33%
42%
41%
45%
35%
All Men
All Women
Men 35-44
Women 35-40
Men Working 40+ Hours
Women Working 40+ Hours
Source: Maryland Univ. Time Use Project
Home Offices in the U.S. 1988 - 1998
20.6
26.6
31.734.8
39
52.1
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Sources: IDC/Link, Find/SVP
Millions of Households
TelecommutersPeople Who Work Part Time or Full Time At Home
2.4
4.6
8.39.1
8.18.7 9
11.1
1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Millions of Workers
Sources: USA Today/Link; Find/SVP
Mobility: Percentage of U.S. Households That Move Each Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1997
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Press Stories About The Internet And PrivacySelected Newspapers, Magazines & TV News Sources, 1990 - 1997
0
200
400
600
800
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Source: Greystone Communications
Privacy Concerns: Percentage of People Who Say They Are Concerned About Privacy
34%
47%
64%
77% 79% 78%84% 84%
1970 1977 1978 1983 1990 1992 1994 1996
Source: Louis Harris Assoc../SNET/Equifax
Percentage of U.S. Population 65 or Older: Actual and Projected
4%
20%
16%
13%13%11%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1900 1950 1980 2000 2010 2020 2030
Source: US Census Bureau
Average Household Size
2.62.62.52.63.33.4
4.14.5
4.8
5.8 5.6
3.12.8
Sources: Historical Statistics of the US; American Demographics
Skepticism" We are in a great haste to construct a magnetic telegraph from Main to Texas, but Maine and Texas, it may be, have nothing important to communicate."
Henry David Thoreau, 1849
Hype and Stock Speculation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
IPO... Anglo -American Brush Electric Lighting Corp., 1882
Source: The Economist
Hype and Stock Speculation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
IPO of Anglo -American Brush Electric Lighting Corp., 1882
1882 1883Source: The Economist
Serendipity
Two U.S. companies rent audio-books on tape to truck drivers at truck stopson the East coast. Drivers rent at one stop and return the tapes further up the road.
-- The New York Times, 12/26/98
Communications Sector of U.S. Economy
267
61
291
76
322
94
357
106
395
120
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Total Revenues in Billions
Source: Census Bureau; 1998 Telecom Market Review
Communication Services Communication Equipment
Information Technology: Share of U.S. Economy
4.2 4.54.9
6.1 6.4
8.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1977 1980 1985 1990 1993 1998
% of GDP
Source: US Dept. of Commerce
U.S. Industries Ranked By 5-Yr Growth 1992-1997
US Industry Rank CompoundAnnual Growth
Telecommunication Services 1 9.4%Electronic Equipment & Services 2 8.4Educational Services 3 7.8Communications Media 4 7.2Motor Vehicles & Parts 5 7.0Insurance 6 6.9Health & Medical Services 7 6.3
Source: Verronis & Suhler; US Dept. of Commerce
US Labor Force, 1900 - 2000Percentage of All Workers in Each Job Category
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: US Dept. of Commerce
Agriculture Industrial Services
How Companies Train Workers
Classroom Instruction
1997 2000
Electronic/ Web
Other
1997 Corporate Training = $61 BillionSource: Am. Society for Training