Technical Seminar on Accreditation -Delivering Confidence in the Provision of Energy
Organized by
Sri Lanka Accreditation Board for Conformity Assessment &
Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority
Global Importance of Sustainable Energy and Sri Lankan Context
Thusitha SugathapalaDirector General
Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy AuthorityMinistry of Environment & Renewable Energy
09th June 2014
• The Facts Development, Energy and Environment
• Solutions for Sustainability• Energy Stock• Renewable Energies
RE Technologies Cost of REs
• National Energy Scenario Features of Energy Sector Energy Intensity in Economy Renewable Energy Resources
OVERVIEW
2
Development and Energy
FACTS
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
3
Energy and Fossil Fuel Global Primary Energy Supply by Source (in EJ)
FACTS
Nuclear
Hydro Electricity
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Biomass
Fossils81%
Other
Fossil Fuel Era 4
Role of Renewable Energy Global Primary Energy Supply by Source in 2010
FACTS
Oil 31.2%
Coal 27.4%
Natural Gas 22.0%
Nuclear 2.7%
Traditional Biomass
8.47%
Biofuels 0.67%
Modern Biomass Heat/Electricity
3.27% Geothermal
Heat/Electricity 0.18%
Hydro power 3.36%
Wind Power 0.52%
Solar PV / CSP
0.07% Solar Thermal Hot water/Heat
0.17%
Renewables 16.7%
5
Role of Renewable Energy Global Electricity Production in 2012
FACTS
Fossil fuels and nuclear
78.3% Hydro power
16.5%
Other renewables
5.2%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Inst
alle
d C
aaci
ty (
GW
)
6
Extraction and Consumption of Resources
FACTS
Construction Minerals
Biomass
Fossil Energy Carriers
Ores and Industrial Minerals
GDP
GDPTrillion International Dollars
Material ExtractionBillion tons
Depletion of Natural Resources7
Extraction and Consumption of Resources Eg: Oil
FACTS
The Energy Crisis ! 8
FACTS Extraction and Consumption of Resources
Fossil Fuel Reserve to Production Ratios
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Re
se
rve
to
Pro
du
cti
on
Ra
tio
(Y
ea
rs)
Year
Oil
Coal
Gas
The Energy Crisis !
FACTS
10
Energy Efficiency Eg: Lighting
Water Pumping
FACTS
11
Energy Efficiency Eg: Transport
100% 20%
Engine Losses
63
%
Standby/ Idle
15
%
Accessories2%
Driveline Losses
6%
14%
Energy Efficiency Comfort
FACTS
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Eff
icie
ncy
Regulator Setting
Fan 1
Fan 2
Fan 3
Fan 4
Fan 5
Fan 6
Fan 7
Fan 8
Fan 9
Fan 10
Average
GNI / Capita / Year
Development and Food Consumption
FACTS
USA
UK
Brazil
China
India
More Meat More Energy + More Water + More Land
Cost of Living Arithmetic average of prices in four commodity sub-
indices (food, non-food agro items, metals, and energy)
FACTS
14
Carrying Capacity of Biosphere (Overloading!) Effects on natural cycles (Sustainability!)
FACTS
The Environment Crisis !
Climate Change and GHG Emissions Drivers of CC is anthropogenic substances and processes
that alter the Earth’s energy budget Main substances affecting the Earth’s energy budget is
GHGs GHG emissions continue accelerate despite reduction
efforts - due to fossil fuel combustion industrial processes The current trajectory of global annual and cumulative
emissions of GHGs is inconsistent with widely discussed goals of limiting global warming at 1.5 to 2 C above the pre-industrial level
Main drivers of GHG emissions are growth in economic output and population, outpacing emission reductions from improvements in energy intensity
Future development pathways and energy sector will be shaped by climate change than resource depletion.
FACTS
16
Main drivers of GHG emissions are growth in economic output and population.
17
MAJOR FINDINGS
Increased use of coal relative to many other energy sources has reversed a long‐ standing pattern of gradual de-carbonization of the world’s energy supply
The decline of energy intensity of economic output has had an offsetting effect on global emissions arisen from growth in population
Source: IPCC AR5, 2014
Growth in Economic output is the major driver of GHG emissions
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY Drivers
Socio Economic Development Energy Security Environment Sustainability
The Solutions
18
Energy Security
Environment Sustainability
Socio-Economic Development
Sustainable Energy
(A) Developing Renewable Energy
(B) Improving Energy Efficiency
(C) Rational Use of Energy
A
B C
Energy Industry - The Targets Energy demand
19
World primary energy demand by scenario
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Energy Industry - The Targets Technology options for mitigation of GHG emissions
20
World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario
Role of RE and EE
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Buildings Evolution of energy intensity for materials
21Source: The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy By 2050, WWF
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Buildings Evolution of energy intensity in the buildings sector
22Source: The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy By 2050, WWF
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Buildings: Main Areas of Challenges
23
Refurbishment to Transform Existing Buildings into EEB Systems and equipment for energy use for existing buildings EnvelopeSolutions for cultural heritageSystemic approach for existing buildings
Neutral/Energy Positive New Buildings Systems and equipment for energy use for new buildings Systemic approach for new buildings
ENERGY EFFICIENT DISTRICT/COMMUNITIESIntegration between buildings, grid, heat network … Systems and Equipment for energy production
District and urban design Systems and Equipment
for energy use Storage of energy: thermal,
electrical or other Retrofitting
Systems and Equipment for energy use
Storage of energy Energy production Quality indoor environment Design – integration of new
solutions Envelope and components Mass customization Automation and control Life cycle analysis (LCA) Energy Management
Systems Labeling and standardization Materials: embodied energy
and multi-functionality Diagnosis and predictive
maintenance
Relationship between user and energy
Geoclustering Value chain and
SMEs focus Knowledge transfer Business models,
organizational and financial models (including ESCOs)
Organizational Aspects
Technological Aspects
Cross-Cutting Challenges
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Interventions in Transport Energy Efficient & Environmentally Sustainable Transport
System (E3ST) - Energy intensity reduction by improving technical efficiency- Emission intensity reduction by cleaner fuels- Structural and systems efficiency improvement - Production and resource efficiency improvement
24
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
ENERGY STOCK The Resources
Annual Solar Energy
Solar Energy for Wind
Exploitable Wind Energy
Solar Energy for Photosynthesis
Renewable Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Solar Energy for Evaporation of Water
Total Geothermal Energy(<10 km)
Total Coal Reserve
Exploitable Coal Reserve
Total Oil Reserve
Exploitable Oil Reserve
Total Gas Reserve Exploitable Gas Reserve
Exploitable Oil Shale
Uranium for Conventional Nuclear Reactors
Uranium for Breeder Nuclear Reactors
Total Energy Consumption of the World
Energy Received by the Earth
Power = 122 PW
Energy = 3,850,000 EJ/y
Global Energy Demand: 445 EJ/y
25
RENEWABLE ENERGIES RE Technologies
26
Tidal
Wave
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Resource / Technology
Typical Characteristics Cost (LKR/kWh)
Large hydro 10 MW - 20,000 MW 4 to 10Small hydro 0.1 kW - 10 MW 7 to 50Wind (On-shore) 1.5 MW - 3.5 MW 7 to 22Wind (Off-shore) 1.5 MW - 7.5 MW 16 to 33Wind (Small scale) 0.1 kW - 100 kW 20 to 46Biomass Power 20 kW - 20 MW 10 to 23Geothermal Power 1 MW - 100 MW 7 to 13
Solar PV (module)Efficiency: (i) Crystalline 12 - 19 %, (ii) Thin film 4 - 20%
-
Solar PV (Concentrating)
Efficiency: 25% -
Rooftop solar PV 2 - 5 kWpeak 22 to 60Utility-scale solar PV 200 kW - 100 MW 20 to 46Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP)
50 - 500 MW (trough);10 - 20 MW (tower)
26 to 52
RENEWABLE ENERGIES Cost of REs
27
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO Primary Energy Supply by Source
28
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Pri
mar
y E
ner
gy
Su
pp
ly (
kTO
E)
Year
New RE
Large Hydro
Coal
Petroleum
Biomass
Hydro
Coal
Oil
Biomass
New RE
Electricity Sector – Gross Generation
29
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
Hydro
Coal
Oil
New RE
Large Hydro 23.1%
Oil 58.8%
Coal 11.9%
NRE 6.2%
Sectoral Energy Consumption by Source in 2011
30
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
Biomass72.8%
Petroleum11.6%
Coal2.3%
Electricity13.4%
Industrial Sector
Biomass78.0%
Petroleum8.8%
Electricity13.3%
Household, Commercial & others Sector
Electricity Sector
Gasoline27.3%
Diesel60.5%
Av. Fuel12.1%
Transport Sector
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Act
ive
Veh
icle
Fle
et
Year
Motor Cycles
Three Wheelers
Motor Cars
Dual Purpose Vehicles
Buses
Lorries
Land Vehicles
Transport Sector Dominated by Road Transport
31
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
The Issue
Active Vehicle Fleet
Life Style Electricity System Load Profile
32
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
Life Style Electricity Consumption
33
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
Electricity Consumption by Energy Service in a Typical Household
Electricity Consumption by Energy Service in a Typical Office Building
Refrigerator51%
Lights8%
TV13%
Rice Cooker12%
Water Pump4%
Blender1%
Iron4%
Others7%
Water pumping
0.32% Lighting15.97%
Lifts2.17%
Air Conditioning
77.54%
Office Equipments
& Others4%
CEB Generation Plan - Base Case 2013-2032
34
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
Existing Major Hydro 28%
New Major Hydro
0%
NCRE 6%
Coal 34%
Oil 32%
Energy Mix - 2015
Existing Major Hydro 22%
New Major Hydro
2% NCRE
8%
Coal 62%
Oil 6%
Energy Mix - 2020
Existing Major Hydro 12%
New Major Hydro
2%
NCRE 6%
Coal 79%
Oil 1%
Energy Mix - 2032
Industrial Competitiveness
35
ENERGY INTENSITY IN ECONOMY
Sri Lanka
Energy Intensity
Energy Management National Targets (by 2020)
36
ENERGY INTENSITY IN ECONOMY
Technology / Process Annual Saving (GWh)
Technology / Process Annual Saving (GWh)
Energy Labeling Program Efficient motors 185 Ceiling Fans 35 Building Management System 20
Tubular Fluorescent Lamps 65 Efficient office equipment 16 Magnetic Ballasts 80 Solar water heaters 5 Refrigerators 16 Telecommunication 10Efficient lighting 173 Efficient air compressors 11
Air Conditioning 250 Eliminating Incandescent Lamps 205
ISO 50001 375 Green Buildings 550
Total 1,990 GWh
Categories Conventional RE Resources
New Renewable Energy (NRE) Resources
Conventional RE Resources Conventional Biomass
Large Hydro
NRE Resources Small Hydro
Wind Solar Modern Biomass / Biofuels Geothermal Ocean Thermal/ Wave/ Tidal
37
Already being harnessed
Yet to be harnessed
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
Sustainability ?
NRE Targets – 20% by 2020
38
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES Grid Connected Power Plants - Progress
Approval Stage
Small Hydro
Wind Biomass Solar Total
No. MW No. MW No. MW No. MW No. MW
Commissioned 125 264.3 12 98.45 6 20 3 1.36 146 384.2
Energy Permit 90 181.4 2 11.3 16 92.8 4 40.0 112 325.4Provisional Approval 88 100.7 2 20.0 12 55.2 1 10.0 103 185.8
Challenges for RE Electricity Generation Constraints in national grid in absorbing RE based
electricityo Exceeding substation / transmission capacitieso Time / seasonal variability + Lack of storage optionso Non-dispatchable generation o Limitations in Peak-matchingo Geographical mismatch of resource and demand
Lack of dynamic modelling / advanced forecasting tools and technical knowhow
Lack of local capacity for manufacture Lack of R&D efforts Higher initial costs of new REs
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
39
Thank You
40