UNITED NATIONSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICAND SOCIAL AFFAIRS
Global Economic Development
As of January 2019
High Level Seminar on the Future of Economic Statistics3-5 June, Shanghai, China
Economic Analysis and Policy Division
UNDESA, New York
www.bit.ly/wespreport
Key messages
• On the surface, global economic growth remains
steady, masking underlying risks and imbalances
• Confluence of risks threaten short-term outlook:
trade tensions, financial fragilities, climate risks
• Economic growth is uneven and is often failing to
reach where it is most needed
• Underlying vulnerabilities endanger longer-term
progress towards the implementation of the 2030
Agenda for sustainable development
UNITED NATIONSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICAND SOCIAL AFFAIRS
Majority of developing countries saw
faster growth in 2018
3
USA
ChinaIndia
Turkey
Brazil
JapanIran
Saudi Arabia
ArgentinaCanada
EU
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
Developed East Asia South Asia Western Asia Latin Americaand Caribbean
Otherdeveloping and
transition
Shifting contributions to world gross product growth, 2017-2018Percentage points
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On the surface growth appears
steady…
• Acceleration in over
½ the world in 2017
and 2018
• Many developed
countries close to
potential
• East and South Asia
remain relatively
strong
• Commodity
exporters recovering
3.1 3.0 3.0
2.2 2.11.9
4.2 4.24.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f
GDP growth
World
Developed economies
Developing and transition economies
… but may have peaked
%
UNITED NATIONSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICAND SOCIAL AFFAIRS
Global trade tensions pose a threat to
the outlook…
5… amid rising trade disputes
0
10
20
30
40
501
99
6
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
*
Total number of active trade disputes
UNITED NATIONSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICAND SOCIAL AFFAIRS
Trade disputes have already impacted
certain sectors…
6… such as steel and soybeans
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18
$ per metric ton
Steel prices - United States
Steel prices - WorldMarch 2018: Introduction of steel tariffs in the United States
UNITED NATIONSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICAND SOCIAL AFFAIRS
Extended escalation of trade tensions
could slow global growth sharply
Source: UN/DESA.
2.5
2.8 2.72.5
3.1 3.1 3
2.9
1.8
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Growth of world gross product
Baseline forecast Alternative scenario
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High levels of global debt pose a
threat to financial sustainability
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
USD-denominated credit to non-bank borrowers
2011 Q4 2018 Q1
…especially where FX debt is rising
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2011 2018 2007 2011 2018
Developed economies Emerging economies
% of GDP
Non-financial sector debt
Government Corporates Households
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Potential triggers of financial
stress
• Global trade tensions
• Monetary policy adjustment in developed
economies
• Commodity price shocks
• Policy disruption in Europe associated with
‘Brexit’
• Domestic political or economic disruptions
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Economic growth is uneven…
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United
Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
GDP per capita growth,
2018
…and often failing to reach where it is most needed
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Many countries continue to be
left behind
• In 2018, 47 developing and transition
economies had less than 1% per capita growth•
• Majority of these (38) have experienced below-
average growth since 1980
• Most (41) highly dependent on commodities
• Several face long-standing armed conflict or
civil unrest and political instability
UNITED NATIONSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICAND SOCIAL AFFAIRS
Even with steady global growth, high
inequality constrains higher living standards
Improvements in Latin America:
• Cyclical factors
• Minimum wage policy
• Education policy
• Government transfers
Source: UN/DESA.Source: World Bank Poverty and Equity Database and UN/DESA projections to 2030.
20
30
40
50
60
70
20 30 40 50 60 70
20
14
-20
15
2005-2008
DevelopedLatin America and CaribbeanAfricaAsiaEconomies in Transition
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Scenarios for poverty reduction, 2030
Baseline: Constant inequality
Scenario 1: Consumption per capita growth at least 4% pa
Scenario 2: Reduce inequality 0.5% pa
Scenario 3: Combine 1 and 2
Scenario 4: Combine 1 and reduce inequality by 50% by 2030
0
10
20
30
40
World Africa LDCs
Extreme poverty headcount ratios, scenarios for 2030
Baseline
Scenario 1: Faster income growth
Scenario 2: Declining inequality
Scenario 3: Faster income growth and declining inequality
Scenario 4: Faster income growth and inequality halved
Source: UN/DESA.Source: World Bank Poverty and Equity Database and UN/DESA projections to 2030.
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Transition towards sustainable
production and consumption…
14…is not happening fast enough
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
% GDP and CO2 emissions growth
Global GDP
CO2 emissions 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
20
12
20
16
Number of relevant weather-related loss events
Hydrological Meteorological Climatological
UNITED NATIONSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICAND SOCIAL AFFAIRS
Concluding remarks
• A dynamic and inclusive global economy is central to
delivering the 2030 Agenda
• The essential transition towards sustainable production and
consumption is not happening fast enough.
• While containing short-term risks, there is urgent need to
advance the longer-term development strategy towards
economic, social and environmental goals.
• Decisive actions rely on a multilateral, cooperative and long-
term approach to global policymaking in key areas, including
climate change, sustainable finance, sustainable production
and consumption, and redressing inequality.
UNITED NATIONSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICAND SOCIAL AFFAIRS
THANK YOU!
THANK YOU!