Global Economic Development - United Nations · DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS Scenarios for poverty reduction, 2030 Baseline: Constant inequality Scenario 1: Consumption

UNITED NATIONSDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICAND SOCIAL AFFAIRS

Global Economic Development

As of January 2019

High Level Seminar on the Future of Economic Statistics3-5 June, Shanghai, China

Economic Analysis and Policy Division

UNDESA, New York

www.bit.ly/wespreport

Key messages

• On the surface, global economic growth remains

steady, masking underlying risks and imbalances

• Confluence of risks threaten short-term outlook:

trade tensions, financial fragilities, climate risks

• Economic growth is uneven and is often failing to

reach where it is most needed

• Underlying vulnerabilities endanger longer-term

progress towards the implementation of the 2030

Agenda for sustainable development


Majority of developing countries saw

faster growth in 2018

3

USA

ChinaIndia

Turkey

Brazil

JapanIran

Saudi Arabia

ArgentinaCanada

EU

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

Developed East Asia South Asia Western Asia Latin Americaand Caribbean

Otherdeveloping and

transition

Shifting contributions to world gross product growth, 2017-2018Percentage points


On the surface growth appears

steady…

• Acceleration in over

½ the world in 2017

and 2018

• Many developed

countries close to

potential

• East and South Asia

remain relatively

strong

• Commodity

exporters recovering

3.1 3.0 3.0

2.2 2.11.9

4.2 4.24.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f

GDP growth

World

Developed economies

Developing and transition economies

… but may have peaked

%


Global trade tensions pose a threat to

the outlook…

5… amid rising trade disputes

0

10

20

30

40

501

99

6

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

*

Total number of active trade disputes


Trade disputes have already impacted

certain sectors…

6… such as steel and soybeans

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18

$ per metric ton

Steel prices - United States

Steel prices - WorldMarch 2018: Introduction of steel tariffs in the United States


Extended escalation of trade tensions

could slow global growth sharply

Source: UN/DESA.

2.5

2.8 2.72.5

3.1 3.1 3

2.9

1.8

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Growth of world gross product

Baseline forecast Alternative scenario


High levels of global debt pose a

threat to financial sustainability

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

USD-denominated credit to non-bank borrowers

2011 Q4 2018 Q1

…especially where FX debt is rising

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2007 2011 2018 2007 2011 2018

Developed economies Emerging economies

% of GDP

Non-financial sector debt

Government Corporates Households


Potential triggers of financial

stress

• Global trade tensions

• Monetary policy adjustment in developed

economies

• Commodity price shocks

• Policy disruption in Europe associated with

‘Brexit’

• Domestic political or economic disruptions


Economic growth is uneven…

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United

Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

GDP per capita growth,

2018

…and often failing to reach where it is most needed


Many countries continue to be

left behind

• In 2018, 47 developing and transition

economies had less than 1% per capita growth•

• Majority of these (38) have experienced below-

average growth since 1980

• Most (41) highly dependent on commodities

• Several face long-standing armed conflict or

civil unrest and political instability


Even with steady global growth, high

inequality constrains higher living standards

Improvements in Latin America:

• Cyclical factors

• Minimum wage policy

• Education policy

• Government transfers

Source: UN/DESA.Source: World Bank Poverty and Equity Database and UN/DESA projections to 2030.

20

30

40

50

60

70

20 30 40 50 60 70

20

14

-20

15

2005-2008

DevelopedLatin America and CaribbeanAfricaAsiaEconomies in Transition


Scenarios for poverty reduction, 2030

Baseline: Constant inequality

Scenario 1: Consumption per capita growth at least 4% pa

Scenario 2: Reduce inequality 0.5% pa

Scenario 3: Combine 1 and 2

Scenario 4: Combine 1 and reduce inequality by 50% by 2030

0

10

20

30

40

World Africa LDCs

Extreme poverty headcount ratios, scenarios for 2030

Baseline

Scenario 1: Faster income growth

Scenario 2: Declining inequality

Scenario 3: Faster income growth and declining inequality

Scenario 4: Faster income growth and inequality halved

Source: UN/DESA.Source: World Bank Poverty and Equity Database and UN/DESA projections to 2030.


Transition towards sustainable

production and consumption…

14…is not happening fast enough

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

% GDP and CO2 emissions growth

Global GDP

CO2 emissions 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

20

04

20

08

20

12

20

16

Number of relevant weather-related loss events

Hydrological Meteorological Climatological


Concluding remarks

• A dynamic and inclusive global economy is central to

delivering the 2030 Agenda

• The essential transition towards sustainable production and

consumption is not happening fast enough.

• While containing short-term risks, there is urgent need to

advance the longer-term development strategy towards

economic, social and environmental goals.

• Decisive actions rely on a multilateral, cooperative and long-

term approach to global policymaking in key areas, including

climate change, sustainable finance, sustainable production

and consumption, and redressing inequality.


THANK YOU!

THANK YOU!

Documents

Global Economic Development - United Nations · DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS Scenarios for poverty reduction, 2030 Baseline: Constant inequality Scenario 1: Consumption