French meteorological “vigilance” procedure
A presentation and evaluationof the procedure
Vigilance procedure – december 2007
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
French meteorological “vigilance” procedure
Context Procedure’s routine working Users’ feedback Conclusion
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Why?
Effective since the 1st of October 2001, replaced older (BRAM and ALARM) procedures wich were in effect since 1993.
Goals:– to better inform, thanks to a simple and condensed message that focuses on
dangerous weather phenomena,– to improve the early warning,– to broaden the dissemination of the information.
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
How?
Two parts:– The meteorological watch map– A follow-up report in case of a dangerous phenomenon
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
For whom?
Governmental Services– National;– Regional (administrative unit made of multiple
“departments”);– Departmental (a department is a regional
administrative unit). Media The public at large
The crisis room of the COGIC(Operational Centre for Interministerial Crisis Management)
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Vigilance is not alarm
The “vigilance” is a meteorological watch (Météo-France) and the alarm is decided by the Civil Defence Organization
– watch => follow-up ;– No systematic watch –> alarm tipping ;– Both work to create a risk culture ;
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
French meteorological “vigilance” procedure
Context Procedure’s routine working Users’ feedback Conclusion
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
The meteorological watch map (1 of 3)
This map over continental France represents for the next 24 hours a definition of potential meteorological danger;
by department; Four levels of risk, associated with 4 colours : green, yellow, orange and red.
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
The meteorological watch map (2 of 3)
Which phenomena are indicated :
Violent winds;
Heavy precipitation -> rain - flooding;
Thunderstorms;
Snow/sleet;
Avalanches;
Coldwave;
Heatwave
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Follow-up reports
Produced in case of orange or red watch Approximately every 3 hours
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
The 4 watch levels
Green :– No particular vigilance is required.
Yellow :– Be attentive if practising activities exposed to meteorological risk, for some
phenomena have been forecast, that are occasionally dangerous, although usual in the region (e.g. mistral wind, summer thunderstorms); keep informed about weather developments.
Orange :– Be very vigilant; dangerous meteorological phenomena have been
forecasted; keep informed about weather developments and directives broadcasted by the authorities;
Red :– Absolute vigilance is required; dangerous and exceptionally intense
meteorological phenomena have been forecasted ; keep regularly informed about weather development and conform to directives or orders broadcasted by the authorities
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Production
Produced twice a day, broadcasted at 6 h and 16 h standard time. Exceptional production may be initiated outside these hours (if the risk significantly
increases or diminishes). In case of an orange or red zone:
– a clear, concise text about the phenomenon;– some directives on behaviour, drawn up by authorities.
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Dissemination
In projected (“input”) modeNational, regional and departemental services in charged of Civil Defence, Road, Health, Environment and Media;
• In take-over (“pull out”) mode on www.meteo.fr web-site :– Media;
– Mayors;
– Corporate and private users;
• Backup Internet site
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Follow-up in case of orange or red zone(s)
At Météo-France national and regional forecasting level
– Co-ordination of forecasting– A follow-up national level report– The regional Centres are
responsible for regional reports
At Météo-France departemental level
– The departmental centres play an essential role as interfacing with their local partners: prefects (head of departements), rescue services, customers, media.
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Follow-up reports
Produced in case of orange or red vigilance ;– approximately, every 3 hours
The content is:– Type of event– Location and duration (time of start and finish)– Present situation, development– Description of the event (comparisons, frequency)– Possible consequences– Recommandation on behaviour– Time of the next report
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
French meteorological “vigilance” procedure
Context Procedure’s routine working Users’ feedback Conclusion
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Usefulness and common knowledge
The general public: a wide common knowledge– The map is very well known (80%);– one feels sufficiently informed (70%);– main access to information (96%): television.
Prefectures: a noticeable improvement– + early warning;– + a decreasing number of weather watches;– + local expertise;– – reports must be improved;– – improved communication to be performed towards mayors and the general public
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Knowledge of the chart by the general public (%)
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Influence on self behaviour
– Do you follow the recommendation on behaviour (%) ?
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"- 25years"
"25 - 34" "35 - 49" "50 - 59" "60 - 69" "70 +"
sometimes
yes everytime
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Conclusion
Vigilance : a concept which has been making rapid strides
– European meteorological vigilance ;www.meteoalarm.eu
– Specific Flood vigilancewww.vigicrues.ecologie.gouv.fr
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Statistical data 2006
46 orange vigilance episodes 96 separate days with orange
vigilance.
Nombre de journées de vigilance orangeen 2006
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30
Janvie
r
Févrie
r
Mars
Avril
Mai
Juin
Juillet
Août
Septe
mbre
Octo
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Novem
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Décem
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« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
A dynamic procedure…
Evaluated and assessed by a follow group in which active partners meet 3 times a year;
An interministerial steering committee meets once a year to decide on procedural developments;
An annual evaluation is co-authored by all the active partners
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
The “annual assessment” document
An institutional communication tool on meteorological vigilance; feedback about procedure and presentation of statistical data;
A 20 page document, deliberately a digest;
Published and produced by Météo-France, with logos from the 4 Ministries: Interior, Ecology, Transportation and Health;
A foreword co-signed by Météo-France & Ministry of the Interior
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Continuous improvement
– A partnership procedure providing real progress: focusing on the most dangerous events, conversion of meteorological thresholds into risks, massive and parallel distribution, mindful of staying close to end users.
Note: 2001 was a transition year between former procedure Bram-Alarme and new meteorological vigilance procedure, set up on the 1st of October.
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
« vigilance » procedure –december 2007
Performances in 2006
2003 2004 2005 2006
percentage of false alarms 21 23 19 25
percentage of non detection 6 6 4 2
Percentage of early warning > 1h 69 76 76 74 (91)
percentage of early warning > 3h 65 52 66 (81)
() departemental level