French meteorological “vigilance” procedure A presentation and evaluation of the procedure Vigilance procedure – december 2007

French meteorological “vigilance” procedure

A presentation and evaluationof the procedure

Vigilance procedure – december 2007

« vigilance » procedure –december 2007


Context Procedure’s routine working Users’ feedback Conclusion


Why?

Effective since the 1st of October 2001, replaced older (BRAM and ALARM) procedures wich were in effect since 1993.

Goals:– to better inform, thanks to a simple and condensed message that focuses on

dangerous weather phenomena,– to improve the early warning,– to broaden the dissemination of the information.


How?

Two parts:– The meteorological watch map– A follow-up report in case of a dangerous phenomenon


For whom?

Governmental Services– National;– Regional (administrative unit made of multiple

“departments”);– Departmental (a department is a regional

administrative unit). Media The public at large

The crisis room of the COGIC(Operational Centre for Interministerial Crisis Management)


Vigilance is not alarm

The “vigilance” is a meteorological watch (Météo-France) and the alarm is decided by the Civil Defence Organization

– watch => follow-up ;– No systematic watch –> alarm tipping ;– Both work to create a risk culture ;





The meteorological watch map (1 of 3)

This map over continental France represents for the next 24 hours a definition of potential meteorological danger;

by department; Four levels of risk, associated with 4 colours : green, yellow, orange and red.



Which phenomena are indicated :

Violent winds;

Heavy precipitation -> rain - flooding;

Thunderstorms;

Snow/sleet;

Avalanches;

Coldwave;

Heatwave




Follow-up reports

Produced in case of orange or red watch Approximately every 3 hours


The 4 watch levels

Green :– No particular vigilance is required.

Yellow :– Be attentive if practising activities exposed to meteorological risk, for some

phenomena have been forecast, that are occasionally dangerous, although usual in the region (e.g. mistral wind, summer thunderstorms); keep informed about weather developments.

Orange :– Be very vigilant; dangerous meteorological phenomena have been

forecasted; keep informed about weather developments and directives broadcasted by the authorities;

Red :– Absolute vigilance is required; dangerous and exceptionally intense

meteorological phenomena have been forecasted ; keep regularly informed about weather development and conform to directives or orders broadcasted by the authorities


Production

Produced twice a day, broadcasted at 6 h and 16 h standard time. Exceptional production may be initiated outside these hours (if the risk significantly

increases or diminishes). In case of an orange or red zone:

– a clear, concise text about the phenomenon;– some directives on behaviour, drawn up by authorities.


Dissemination

In projected (“input”) modeNational, regional and departemental services in charged of Civil Defence, Road, Health, Environment and Media;

• In take-over (“pull out”) mode on www.meteo.fr web-site :– Media;

– Mayors;

– Corporate and private users;

• Backup Internet site

http://www.meteo.fr/


Follow-up in case of orange or red zone(s)

At Météo-France national and regional forecasting level

– Co-ordination of forecasting– A follow-up national level report– The regional Centres are

responsible for regional reports

At Météo-France departemental level

– The departmental centres play an essential role as interfacing with their local partners: prefects (head of departements), rescue services, customers, media.


Follow-up reports

Produced in case of orange or red vigilance ;– approximately, every 3 hours

The content is:– Type of event– Location and duration (time of start and finish)– Present situation, development– Description of the event (comparisons, frequency)– Possible consequences– Recommandation on behaviour– Time of the next report





Usefulness and common knowledge

The general public: a wide common knowledge– The map is very well known (80%);– one feels sufficiently informed (70%);– main access to information (96%): television.

Prefectures: a noticeable improvement– + early warning;– + a decreasing number of weather watches;– + local expertise;– – reports must be improved;– – improved communication to be performed towards mayors and the general public


Knowledge of the chart by the general public (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007


Influence on self behaviour

– Do you follow the recommendation on behaviour (%) ?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

"- 25years"

"25 - 34" "35 - 49" "50 - 59" "60 - 69" "70 +"

sometimes

yes everytime


Conclusion

Vigilance : a concept which has been making rapid strides

– European meteorological vigilance ;www.meteoalarm.eu

– Specific Flood vigilancewww.vigicrues.ecologie.gouv.fr


Statistical data 2006

46 orange vigilance episodes 96 separate days with orange

vigilance.

Nombre de journées de vigilance orangeen 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Janvie

r

Févrie

r

Mars

Avril

Mai

Juin

Juillet

Août

Septe

mbre

Octo

bre

Novem

bre

Décem

bre


A dynamic procedure…

Evaluated and assessed by a follow group in which active partners meet 3 times a year;

An interministerial steering committee meets once a year to decide on procedural developments;

An annual evaluation is co-authored by all the active partners


The “annual assessment” document

An institutional communication tool on meteorological vigilance; feedback about procedure and presentation of statistical data;

A 20 page document, deliberately a digest;

Published and produced by Météo-France, with logos from the 4 Ministries: Interior, Ecology, Transportation and Health;

A foreword co-signed by Météo-France & Ministry of the Interior


Continuous improvement

– A partnership procedure providing real progress: focusing on the most dangerous events, conversion of meteorological thresholds into risks, massive and parallel distribution, mindful of staying close to end users.

Note: 2001 was a transition year between former procedure Bram-Alarme and new meteorological vigilance procedure, set up on the 1st of October.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Performances in 2006

2003 2004 2005 2006

percentage of false alarms 21 23 19 25

percentage of non detection 6 6 4 2

Percentage of early warning > 1h 69 76 76 74 (91)

percentage of early warning > 3h 65 52 66 (81)

() departemental level


Statistical data 2005

Documents

French meteorological “vigilance” procedure A presentation and evaluation of the procedure Vigilance procedure – december 2007