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Financial Foresights
FEDERATION OF INDIAN CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY
Foreign Exchange Risk Management
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FULL PAGE ADfor Digest PartnerSize- W-8, H-11.25Screen Ruling- 150Ad Color- CMYK
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About FICCI
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DISCLAIMER
Acknowledgments
We thank our Partners
Partner Exchange
Industry Insights Partner
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Contents1. PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
2. INDUSTRY INSIGHTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7The Risk Management Imperative 9
Role of Foreign Exchange Risk Management in Indian Corporate Performance 17
Divining the Rupees future 21
The macroeconomics of managing the rupee 25
Foreign Exchange Risk Management 30
Foreign Exchange Risk Management 34
Foreign Exchange Risk Management 38
Foreign Exchange Risk Management for Corporates 42
A perspective on the trends in the foreign exchange market and identifying and
managing foreign exchange risk 46
Foreign Exchange Risk Management 50
Foreign Exchange Risk Management 56
Foreign Exchange Risk Management 62
Foreign Exchange Risk Management 65
Foreign Exchange Risk Management-The way forward 69
3. THE POLICY PULSE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
Banking Sector 76
Capital Markets Sector 79
Insurance Sector 82
Reforms Tracker
4. FICCIS DATA CENTRE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
Indian Economy-An Update 89
Investment Banking Updates 92
Markets Watch 97
5. FINANCIAL SECTOR EVENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98
Synopsis of Past Events 98
6. FINTAINMENT SECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99
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Preface
Dr. A. Didar Singh
Secretary General
FICCI
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Industry Insights
In association with
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9Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
The Risk Management Imperative
Mr. V.K. Sharma,
The last two years
have been characterized
by unprecedented and
excessive volatility in
asset prices and currencyvalues, catapulting the
critical imperative of
Risk Management to the
centre-stage like never
before
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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10
Industry Insights
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11Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
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12
Industry Insights
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13Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
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14
Industry Insights
Industry Insights Partner
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15Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
As regards commodity
prices, business
and industry canuse international
commodity exchanges
to hedge dollar price
risk, and domestic
commodity exchanges
to hedge rupee price
risk
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16
Industry Insights
V.K. SharmaExecutive Director
Reserve Bank of India
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17Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Role of Foreign Exchange RiskManagement in Indian CorporatePerformance
Mr. B.A. Prabhakar,
The economic
liberalization hasfacilitated theintroduction ofderivatives basedon interest rates andforeign exchange
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18
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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19Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Role of the Boards in ForexRisk Management
Role of Banks in Forex RiskManagement
Companies incurred huge forex losses
No Company
2007-08
3
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20
Industry Insights
Forex Risk Management-Accounting Standards
Way forward
It is essential
for corporates to
implement systematichedging action plan
so that any adverse
movements in
currency rates will
not cause pressure
on their margins and
B A PrabhakarChairman & MD
Andhra Bank
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21Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Divining the Rupees futureMr. Saugata Bhattacharya and Mr. Abhishek Upadhyay
Just as death and
taxes are the two
constants of life, forex
markets have become
the polar opposite in
terms of volatility
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22
Industry Insights
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23Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Oct-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Jan-13
CNY - China
BRL-Brazil
MYR - Malaysia
INR - India
KRW - Korea
TRL - Turkish
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct- 10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12
REER (6 country trade based, 2004-05=100)
Mean+ 1SD
Mean- 1SD
(April'04:USDINR - 43.9)
(July'12: USDINR -
53.05)
47%
56%50%
53%
60%67%
79%
97%
114% 116%
99%
106%110%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
FY93 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Total external flows as % of GDP
Trade flows % GDP
Financial flows % of GDP
Chart 1: Comparative performance of Rupee
and other EM currencies
Chart 3: Real Effective Exchange Rate
Chart 2: Indias integration with the
global economy
Indias growth is too
strong an attraction
for the vast pools ofglobal capital in quest
of returns
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24
Industry Insights
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
70
75
80
85
90
95
Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12
DXY Dollar Index USD/INR (RS, Inverted)
Chart 1: Comparative performance of Rupee and
other EM currencies
Abhishek UpadhyaySenior Manager and
Economist, Axis Bank
Saugata Bhattacharya
Senior Vice President and ChiefEconomist at Axis Bank
Russia 2.9 10.0 0.7 5.3 97.6
Brazil 4.2 5.2 -2.5 -1.5 65.4
India 8.1 9.2 -7.8 -2.3 72.5
S.Africa 2.7 7.0 -2.7 -4.9 52.0
Mexico 1.5 4.4 -2.9 -0.8 42.4
Turkey 3.6 8.1 -2.5 -6.0
Korea 3.5 3.4 1.6 2.3 32.4
China 10.5 3.7 -1.2 6.5 22.7
US 0.6 2.2 -8.5 -3.8 86.9
UK 0.1 3.2 -7.3 -2.1 64.5
Japan -0.1 -0.2 -7.2 3.3 206.0
Fiscal balance
as % of GDP
CAD as a % of
GDP
Govt debt as
% of GDP
GDP
yoy%
Inflation
yoy%
Table 1
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25Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Three phases of RBI policy
The macroeconomics of managing the rupeeMr. Indranil Sen Gupta,
INR will not
stabilize till the RBI
rebuilds FX reserves
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26
Industry Insights
Till 2004: Buying FX tobuild reserves
2005-07: Buying FX to stemappreciation
2009-11: Strong INR at costof FX reserves
Cyclically high current challenge
38.0
42.0
46.0
50.0
54.0
58.0
M ar -
00
M ay-
01
J ul-
02
S e p -
03
N o v -
04
J an -
06
M ar -
07
M ay-
08
J ul -
09
S e p-
10
N o v -
11
INR / USD
Chart 1: Forex reserve management key to stabilize Rupee
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27Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Higher FX reserves,stronger INR
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12
Import cover
Months
Chart 2: Import cover lowest since FY96
Item FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
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28
Industry Insights
Higher nostro balancescan fund US$5-8bn FXintervention
The Rupees Dilemma
1. RBI buys FX, market buys INR:
2. RBI doesnt buy FX, market sellsINR:
Table 2: Indias external indicators are trailing BRIC levels
Pre-Crisis Crisis Current
Brazil
Russia
India
China
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12
Import cover
Months
Chart 2: Import cover lowest since FY96We think the best
solution surely will
be for the RBI to
accumulate FX and
the FX market to
buy INR. The RBI
should then achieve
its twin objectives
of stabilizing the FX
market and reducing
pressures
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29Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
3. RBI buys FX, market sells INR:
4. RBI doesnt buy FX, market buys
INR:
Sen Gupta, IndranilEconomist India
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30
Industry Insights
O
Foreign Exchange Risk ManagementMr. Vipul Chandra,
Asian Companies
have been severely
impacted by this
increased volatility
in FX Markets
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31Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Interplay between Financial and
Business risks:
Risk Management Process
95% CFaR
Forecasted
Firm Value
Firm Value Rs MM
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32
Industry Insights
3. Setting Risk Strategy:
4. Hedging Strategy and Alternatives
evaluation:
5. Review and Re-balancing :
Accounting and RiskManagement
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33Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Vipul ChandraManaging Director
Corporate Sales & Structuring -
South Asia Markets
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34
Industry Insights
Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Introduction
Mr. Himanshu Kaji,
Ministry of Corporate
Affairs has taken the
cognizance of high
rupee volatility and
has permitted Indian
companies to capitalize
term foreign borrowings
due to exchange rate
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35Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Risk Awareness
Risk Management StrategiesRisk Transfer Strategy
Risk Avoidance Strategy
Risk Mitigation Strategy
Hedging through Exchanges
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36
Industry Insights
Hedging through OTCcontracts
Right Risk Strategy:
Recommended Exchangerelated reforms
Low liquidity on the
exchanges across the
existing contracts
is one of the key
concerns for the
Indian companies
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37Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Recommended OTC relatedreforms
Conclusion
Himanshu Kaji
Executive Director,Edelweiss Financial
Services Limited
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38
Industry Insights
Mr. Baby K P,
Foreign Exchange Risk Management
In life, as in chess,forethought wins.
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39Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Foreign Exchange RiskManagement framework
and exchange rate risks
3.
Forecasting exchange rate
movements
Factors affecting exchange
rate
Movement of Capital:
Interest Rates:
Current account position:
Public debt:
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Industry Insights
Measurement of risk
Benchmarking andformulation of policyguidelines
Risk mitigation
Forward contracts,
Currency options
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41Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Option contracts maybecombined to form strategies that
reduce cost and achieve desired pay
Currency futures
It is obvious that
multiple currencies
are here to stay forthe foreseeable
future and so is the
foreign exchange risk
Baby K P Asst General Manager,
Federal Bank
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Industry Insights
Foreign Exchange Risk Managementfor Corporates
Why manage foreign
exchange risk?
Mr. Mohan N. Shenoi,
In India, the gradualliberalization of theIndian economy afterthe 1990s and itsintegration into theglobal marketplace hasresulted in substantialexposure to foreignexchange risks forIndian corporates
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43Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
How is foreign exchangerisk managed?
start by isolating andenumerating the currency exposures
A. Transaction Risk:
B. Translation Risk:
C. Contingent Risk
D. Economic Risk:
E. Policy Risk:
The risk management
policy should be
primarily driven
by the business thecompany is in
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Industry Insights
How can foreign exchangerisk be managed?
Recent Lessons
Hedge accounting:
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45Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
RBI regulations:
Mohan N. ShenoiPresident- Group Treasury
& Global Markets
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Limited
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46
Industry Insights
A perspective on the trends in the foreignexchange market and identifying and managing
foreign exchange risk
Introduction
.
Mr. Ramaswamy Govindan,
As the liquidity across
markets dried up,
challenged the micro-structure of foreign
exchange markets
across many countries
with increased
volatility
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47Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Global FX Markets Deep,liquid but volatile
The FX market in India
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48
Industry Insights
Foreign Exchange RiskManagement L&TPerspective
Risk management processinvolves following elements:-
Under this
stricter operating
environment, anincreasing number of
corporates, especially,
the medium scale
enterprises have found
with the regulatory
requirements.
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49Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Risk Evaluation:
Risk Mitigation:
Risk monitoring:
Ramaswamy Govindan
Toubro Limited.
References
Indian Derivatives Market a regulatory and Contextual Perspective - RBI Speeches
BIS Triennial Survey 2007 & 2010 ww.bis.org
Report on Currency & Finance RBI Publications
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50
Industry Insights
Foreign Exchange Risk ManagementSmt. Usha Ananthasubramanian,
The Backdrop
ation and
Globalisation
has yielded
magnanimous scope
for internationalbusinesses
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51Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Indian Perspective ToEconomic LiberalisationAnd InternationalBusinesses
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52
Industry Insights
Foreign Exchange Risk
3.
1. Exchange Rate Risk:
Exchange Rate Risk
Forex Forward contracts:
Currency Futures:
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53Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Currency Options:
Cross Currency Swaps: A
Interest Rate Risk:
Forex Exposure
Hedging Instrument
Unhedged Company
Effect of Hedging
Money saved by hedging: 60,150,000 58,000,000 = Rs 2.15 mio
Graphical Representation of Currency Option Payoffs
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54
Industry Insights
Interest Rate Risk
Sovereign risk Compliance Risk:
compliance risk
Settlement risk:
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55Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
settlement risk
Summary and Conclusion
The need of the hour
is to educate ourselves
with the vibrantderivative products
and participate
effectively in the
derivatives market to
help it evolve to its
optimum levels
Usha AnanthasubramanianExecutive Director
Punjab National Bank
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Industry Insights
Domestic Scenario
Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Shri Nishant Jha, Shri Selvaraj Kalyanasundaram,
Human beings, who
are almost unique in
having the ability
to learn from the
experience of others,
are also remarkable
for their apparent
disinclination to do
so.
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57Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
India Highly Exposed toExchange Rate Fluctuations
Sources of Risk forCorporates
Exchange Rate RiskManagement
Risk Measurement
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58
Industry Insights
Risk Control and
Mitigation Hedging
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59Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Hedging Products in India
3.
Companies should
break even exchange
rate based on their
costing and then
hedge the risk after
accounting for some
margin
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60
Industry Insights
3.
Documentation - ISDAMaster Agreement andCSA
Move TowardsTransparency ExchangeTraded Products and CCPs
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61Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Nishant Jha
Selvaraj KalyanasundaramDeputy General Manager
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62
Industry Insights
A
.
.
Foreign Exchange Risk ManagementMr. James Berry,
The global FX
turnover has tripled
between 2001 and
2010
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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63Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
3.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
3
With the Indian
economy expanding
at circa 6% p.a, thereis an increased
focus on FX risk
management
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64
Industry Insights
James Berry
India & South Asia,
Standard Charted Bank
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65Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Hedging of market risk
Foreign Exchange Risk ManagementMr. Ananth Narayan G,
I will never die for
my beliefs; because I
might be wrong
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66
Industry Insights
So what should the
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67Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Managing market
risks has become a
critical imperative
of every corporate
treasury
Industry Insights Partner
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68
Industry Insights
In Summary
Ananth Narayan GCo-Head of Wholesale
Banking, South Asia.
Standard Charted Bank
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69Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Introduction
Foreign Exchange Risk Management-The way forward
Mr. Apoorv Srivastava,
In India, the economic
liberalization in the
early nineties provided
the economic rationale
for the introduction of
Foreign exchange (FX)
derivatives
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70
Industry Insights
Foreign Exchange Risk: AHistorical Perspective
Need for a dynamic foreignexchange market in India:
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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71Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
Issues in the Indian market:
Impact of Global economyand the India story
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72
Industry Insights
3.
Way Forward:
Recommendations:
The problem in the
Indian context is
that the market for
derivatives in India
other than forward
contracts is veryshallow
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73Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Industry Insights
References:
3.
Apoorv SrivastavaResearch Associate - Financial Sector
FICCI
Disclaimer: Views are personal and not of the organization.
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The Policy Pulse
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76
The Policy Pulse
December, 2012
RBI plans to push Export Lending
Companies in Agri Business now in Priority
Sector
RBI plans to roll out gold linked products
Gold deposit schemes
Gold - linked accounts
Gold accumulation plan
Banking Sector
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77Foreign Exchange Risk Management
The Policy Pulse
Gold Pension Plan
Figures on Gold Imports
RBI bans bank loans to buy gold in any form
RBI to simplify KYC norms
RBI trying to mesh current liquidity, Basel-III
norms
www.mcx-sx.com
Indias
new generationstockexchange
offershedgingin
,, and$
Manage your currency risk in
Yen, Euro, Pound and USD
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78
RBI to set aside funds for buying illiquid gilts
payment system
The Policy Pulse
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79Foreign Exchange Risk Management
SEBI allows Mutual Funds to take part in credit
default swaps market
SEBI relaxes MF exposure for Housing Finance
companies
SEBI allows trading of ETFs in SLB segment
Capital Markets Sector
SEBI seeks more powers to deal with defaulters
SEBI comes out with norms for RGESS and asks
stock exchanges to furnish list of eligible stocks for
RGESS
.
Government asks States to act against illegal
share trading
The Policy Pulse
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80
SEBI Committee to review depository system
Government may cut withholding tax on FII debt
SEBI discontinues mini derivatives contracts on
bourses
SEBI allowed 12 more Alternative Investment
Funds in October and November 2012
.
SEBI raises minimum capital requirement for
brokers
www.mcx-sx.com
Hedge on
Insure
againstuctuating
currency
prices
The Policy Pulse
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81Foreign Exchange Risk Management
SEBI takes measures to beef-up retail investor
safety
Companies Act gives SEBI a leg-up
Inc.
SEBI seeks approval for foreign funds inalternative investment funds
SEBI eases debt allocation mechanism for FIIs
SEBI to revise rules on insider trading; to
synchronize norms with the guidelines of
Companies Bill
SEBI mulls norms for trading permitted stocks on
exchanges
The Policy Pulse
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82
Standard insurance product for rural and social
sector: IRDA
Finance Minister announced incentives to
promote life insurance
applications
Insurance Sector
SEBIs unveils share buyback proposals
Government asks SEBI to remove cool-off period
in OFS
The Policy Pulse
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83Foreign Exchange Risk Management
IRDA gears up to deliver better and faster product
decisions
Insurers eye tier II and tier III cities to evaluate
new business statistics
Premium collection drops for life insurance
companies
Insurance Firms being investigated for suspected
nonpayment of Service Tax
www.mcx-sx.com
SMS MCXSX CurrencyCode
to567678
Currency codes:
USDINR /GBPINR/JPYINR / EURINR
CurrencyFuturesPricesonmobile
The Policy Pulse
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84
Motor Insurance Policy Tenure may rise to 2 Years
soon: IRDA
Cabinet defers decision on Insurance and Pension
reforms bill
Reforms Tracker: A Review of the Winter Session
of Parliament and Bills Passed
IRDA relaxes proof of residence norms for micro-
insurance products
Reforms Tracker
www.mcx-sx.com
Hedge on
Insure
against
uctuating
currencyprices
The Policy Pulse
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85Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Bills Introduced In
Lok Sabha
Bills Passed By Lok
Sabha
Bills Introduced
In Rajya Sabha
Bills Passed By
Rajya Sabha
Bills Passed By
Both Houses
1. The Coal Mines
Amendment Bill, 2012
2. The Central
Universities
2012
3. The Criminal Law
2012
4. The Competition
2012
5. The Appropriation
6. The Governors
Allowances
Amendment Bill, 2012
7. The Constitution
1. The Prevention of
Money Laundering
2. The Unlawful Ac-
Amendment Bill, 2011
3. The Enforcement of
Security Interest and
Recovery of Debts Laws
4. The Appropriation
5. The Constitution
-
Bill, 2012
6. The Banking Laws
7. The Companies Bill,
2012
1. The Child
Amendment Bill,
2012
1. The North
Eastern Areas
Amendment Bill,
2012
1. The North
Eastern Areas
Amendment Bill,
2012
Winter Session, 2012
The Policy Pulse
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86
Enforcement of Security Interest and Recovery of
The Companies Bill, 2012
The Policy Pulse
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FICCIs Data Centre
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89Foreign Exchange Risk Management
FICCIs Data Centre
Indian Economy-An Update
Economic Scenario
3.
Key Economic Indicators
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90
FICCIs Data Centre
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91Foreign Exchange Risk Management
FICCIs Data Centre
Rupee Movement
Reference:
3.
Informationis
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FICCIs Data Centre
India
Outbound M&A
Inbound M&A
Domestic M&A
Investment Banking Updates
Mergers & Acquisitions
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93Foreign Exchange Risk Management
FICCIs Data Centre
Equity Capital Markets
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94
FICCIs Data Centre
India DCM
Corporate IG and Agency
Reliance Industries Power
Finance Corp
Domestic DCM
International
Debt Capital Markets
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95Foreign Exchange Risk Management
India loan
Leveraged
Investment grade
Building
Loan Markets
FICCIs Data Centre
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96
IB Revenue
India IB Revenue
Syndicated Loan revenue
M&A revenue
ECM fees DCM fees
FICCIs Data Centre
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97Foreign Exchange Risk Management
FICCIs Data Centre
Markets Watch
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98
Financial Sector Events
Synopsis of past events
Asian Financial Cooperation Conference26th- 27th November, 2012, Mumbai
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99Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Across
Down
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10
11 12 13
14 15
16
17 18
19 20 21 22 23
24
25 26
27 28 29
30 31 32
Fintainment Section
CrosswordNotes:
Fintainment Section
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100
Greenspan Put -
Dogs of the Dow
Squawk Box
and Business Research, by 2015 which city is expected to employ
Roth and Lloyd Shapley in 2012, the Nobel Prize in Economic
last working day of February. What is the name of the Finance
Minister who changed the budget announcement time to
11am?
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Currencyfutures
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Financial Fundas
Fintainment Section
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101Foreign Exchange Risk Management
1. StockTwits
2. FRED
3. IRDA
Jumble
Mangesh Ghogre
Fintainment SectionCredits
Fintainment Section
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102
I1
N S2
U R A3
N C4
E F5
I I P6
L C7
N U D R D D
D8
E B T O R E9
Q U I T Y C10
R R
E S D A
X I I P11
L12
T D13
D
14
E A L T C
15
A R T E L C
R16
Y O A O O F
B E17
C18
R I S I S P
I19
N C20
C21
F O H P22
U N T E R23
O O M24
B A E I E
N N P C O C
N25
A T I O N A L I26
Z A T I O N E
P A M N S U SA
27
N N U I T Y S28
E N S E29
X S
G C U U I
I30
P O S31
E C E32
M B A R G O O
O N
Answers of
Answer: 1
Answer: 2
Answer: 3
Answers of Jumble
Answer 1: a - b - c - d - e - f -
Answer 2: a - b - c - d - e - f -
Answer 3: a - b - c - d - -
Solution of Fintainment Section
Fintainment Section
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