Future &
Emerging
TTechnologiesechnologiesin the
IInformationnformation
Society
Technologies programme of
European
Commission
Future &
Emerging
TTechnologiesechnologiesin the
IInformationnformation
Society
Technologies programme of
European
Commission
Ralph [email protected]
Complex systems research funding Complex systems research funding in European Commissionin European Commission
Why funding complex systems research?
Moreis different:Interactionsdetermine
system behaviour
Social systemsLi
ving
sys
tem
s
Large scale artificial systems
From individual to collectives:The Internet - P2P systemsThe cell - The brainStock marketCulture - NormsAnt colonies - EcosystemsThe climate
Are there general organisational and functional principles
for such systems?
Can we design/build better
functioning systems based on such understanding?
Why funding complex systems research?
Moreis different:Interactionsdetermine
system behaviour
Social systemsLi
ving
sys
tem
s
Large scale artificial systems
From individual to collectives:The Internet - P2P systemsThe cell - The brainStock marketCulture - NormsAnt colonies - EcosystemsThe climate
Are there general organisational and functional principles
for such systems?
Can we design/build better
functioning systems based on such understanding?
Example of a FET funded projectExample of a FET funded projectSelf-organising semantics in embodied agentsSelf-organising semantics in embodied agents
Three SONY AIBOs paying attention to an object
Interacting swarm-bots
Can ‘human-like’ language arise in communicating embodied robots ? What are the prerequisites for developing communication?Grammar combinatorial systems
FET project: ECAGENT
Example of FET funded projects:Internet -unbounded world of information
‘‘The Internet is the most complex artificial The Internet is the most complex artificial computational artefact ever created by man. computational artefact ever created by man. It evolves in It evolves in absence of any central controlabsence of any central control guided by the economic interests of guided by the economic interests of participantsparticipants’ (Papadimitriou 2001)’ (Papadimitriou 2001)
Internet is ever growing:
Nodes are constantly
added and removed
An Expanding universe
FET projects:EVERGROWDELIS
Funding of complex systems: Funding of complex systems: EC framework/national programmesEC framework/national programmes
EC Funding within ICTEC Funding within ICT (directorate for information & media)(directorate for information & media)
40Million Euros – FET40Million Euros – FET EC Funding outside ICTEC Funding outside ICT (directorate for research) (directorate for research)35 Million Euros - NEST35 Million Euros - NEST National funding:National funding: EPSRC (10Mpounds), CNRS…… EPSRC (10Mpounds), CNRS…… Coordination activitiesCoordination activities: ONCE-CS.net: ONCE-CS.net
Outlook EC 7Outlook EC 7thth framework programme: framework programme: Complex systems science for socially intelligent ITComplex systems science for socially intelligent IT Complex systems ideas taken up in many areasComplex systems ideas taken up in many areas
What does all this have to What does all this have to do with economics ?do with economics ?
IT drives a novel set of transformations:What consequences for society and business?
Convergence ofSystems
TransportationThe ‘physical’
InternetThe InternetInformation
unbound
Economy
Eco systemSustainability
Power gridsThe ‘energy’ Internet
Economy
Media
From Individual to Mass and back
‘Social computing’ or Anarchy
-From centralised media/telecoms to P2P participatory Media-Online diversity versus cultural diversity
Societies of minds Are Wikipedia, Google, e-bay … ‘social’ cognitive tools?
Mass self-communication Do blogging, podcasting … lead to ‘after Gutenberg’ era?
Towards an information science of social processesBridging human and computational processes
Hum
aniti
es
Soci
al sc
ienc
es
Economics
Computer
science
Data + Models +Computation
Agent-based/ behavioural economics
AI Interfaces
Formal modelsServices
Services in the large:How to manage millions ofonline services?
Thank youAnnexes
Annexe:Three signatures of complexity
• Emergence: Self-organisation - Collective behaviour • Multiple levels of description & operation: ‘micro to macro’ ‘Complex systems often show simple global behaviour’ Quarks Bulldozer
• Input and output not proportional: ‘small change -big effect’• Positive Feedback loops• Extreme events dominate the mean: cascading failures, crashes…
Existence of multiple equilibria:Existence of multiple equilibria: Systems can evolve along several paths – no global optimumSystems can evolve along several paths – no global optimum Role of prediction? (experiment versus simulation)Role of prediction? (experiment versus simulation)
Sensitivity to parameters
‘More is different’
‘‘Pool of possibilities’Pool of possibilities’