1
ESA Space Weather Study, Final Presentation:
Study OverviewMike Hapgood
CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
6 December 2001, ESTEC
THE STUDY TEAM
• CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory• Oxfordshire, UK
• QinetiQ (formerly DERA) • Farnborough and Malvern, UK
• Astrium,• Stevenage, UK
• Finnish Meteorological Institute, • Helsinki, Finland
• Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy• Brussels, Belgium
• Office National d'Etudes et de Recherches Aérospatiales,• Département Environnement Spatial, Toulouse, France
2
STUDY APPROACH:study aims and logic
Models ofPhysics
PracticalSystems
Physics
Operator
UpstreamEnvironment
SpaceWeather
Products*
*products may be forecasts, nowcasts or postcasts
measurement ofenvironmentalparameters
LocalEnvironment
CONCEPTUAL VIEW OF A SPACE WEATHER SERVICE
3
Two key features:User
Requirements
SystemMeasurementRequirements
InstrumentDefinition
MarketInterviews
Spaceinstruments
Groundsupport
Groundinstruments
Spacearchitecture
SpaceWeatherServiceRequirements for models
OVERALL STUDY FLOW
Traceability!
Benefits & market
analysis
using scientific knowledge of SW
systems approach,
SOME KEY RESULTSjust a flavour!
see our later talks for details
4
User CommunityEnd Users
DecisionMakers
Commentators
Perception of User NeedsL a c k o f
P r o t e c t i o n
I n e f f e c t i v ef u n c t i o n a l i t y
G o o dS e r v i c e
OUTREACH
is a critical issue; to improve knowledge of SW among users
Students
NICHE OPPORTUNITIES• Study showed demand for specific well-targeted services:
– e.g. power systems, airlines, geological survey/drilling, ...
• No user demand for over-arching service– integration must be justified by technical or financial advantages to users
• User demand provides a series of niche opportunities – may be exploited by industry (SMEs), government labs & academia
– bottom-up (market) approach appropriate here … BUT …
5
DATA INFRASTRUCTURE• Basic data is needed to support these services
• Users see provision of this as public sector task– routine monitoring of environment, e.g. SSN, Kp, foF2, TEC, etc.
– dissemination of physical parameters from that monitoring
– users will not pay for what they see as basic “scientific data”
• This is an important message– key issue for Outreach, especially towards decision-makers
– need to secure existing European data sources as well as developnew sources
measurement ofenvironmentalparameters
Models ofPhysics
PracticalSystems
Physics
Operator
UpstreamEnvironment
SpaceWeather
Products*
*products may be forecasts, nowcasts or postcasts
LocalEnvironment
Science
Data infrastructure is a key part of systemData sources
6
DATA SOURCES• requirement analysis shows we need a mix of
space- & ground-based sources
• ground-based sources have major advantages– usually much cheaper and easier to maintain
• but some key requirements must be addressed by space measurements:– practicability (EUV/X-ray, in-situ, kHz radio)
– quality (coronagraphs)
SPACE-BASED MEASUREMENTS• existing/planned missions provide limited data
– SOHO is main European mission
– also smaller European missions, e.g. CHAMP
– international collaboration helps (especially with US)
– still potential gap in L1 coverage 2003-2006
• explored hitch-hiker and dedicated mission solutions
• conclude that a mix of the two is required
• see overview on next slide
7
L4 - as L5
L1 - dedicated:solar wind/HMF + solar protons+CRs; solar observations
SUN
L5 - dedicated: observations of Earth-directed solar ejecta
GEO - hitch-hiker:outer radiation belt, solar protons+CRs; solar observations
GTO - dedicated:radiation belt, plasmasphere
SS - hitch-hiker/ dedicated: auroral monitor,micro-particles
Measurement type Network Index Develop?Cross-tail electric field (HF backscatter radarnetwork, i.e. SuperDARN)
Y ? Y
Geomagnetic indices Y YGeomagnetic variations YIonospheric critical frequencies Y YIonospheric total electron content YInterplanetary scintillation (remote sensing ofheliospheric density and velocity)
? Y Y
Secondary neutron fluxes YSolar 10.7 cm radio emission (Penticton index) YSolar surface magnetic field (magnetograph)Sunspot number Y Y
EXAMPLES OF GROUND-BASED SPACE WEATHER MEASUREMENTS
8
EXISTING MEASUREMENTS
• ~100 existing European systems catalogued
• good coverage of ground effects, ionosphere & Sun
• but fragmentation leads to vulnerability to funding cuts
Ground
Ionosphere
Sun
ThermosphereSolar wind
Magnetosphere
ESA
ESA SPACE WEATHEROUTREACH CENTRE
NETWORK FORGROUND-BASED SPACE
WEATHER MEASUREMENTS
SPACE WEATHERDEVELOPMENT
GROUP
SPACE WEATHERRESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC
EndUsers
DecisionMakersCommentatorsService
Providers
DataProviders
Sta
ndar
ds b
odie
s (e
.g. C
CS
DS
, W3C
,etc
.)
fundingStep 1: Encourage key low cost initiatives: (a) secure
existing measurements; (b) identify key open areas for research. BUILD GOOD CASES FOR SUPPORT!
Step 2: Establish outreach centre (moderate cost)
Steps 3-5: Establish space weather development group:3. prototype service (moderate cost)4. prototype space segment (high short-term cost)5. full space segment (high long-term cost)
9
More during the day
Implementation Plan at ~5 pm!
SpacecraftInterface
SpaceWeatherService
s/coperator
Ground station
TM & TC
External dataproviders
Users
space weathermonitor
commands
TM parametersTC
monitoring
SW products
comments
problem reports
Conceptual view of SW ground
segment
Classical ground segment:
s/c monitoring and control, TM
up/downlink, TM processing, flight
dynamics
Data to/from hitch-hiker host g/s.
Data from other sources (space &
ground)
Convert basic data to products; user support &
outreach
10
number of instances, time resolution, maximum telemetry gap,data rates (raw/reduced), size, mass, power, cost, general
description, heritage, European expertise
SystemMeasurement Requirements
(WP410)
Space-basedmeasurements
Identifypossible
orbits
Ground-basedmeasurements
Identify genericinstruments
Identifyinstrumentattributes
Space segmentoptions (WP420)
Europeanco-ordination
(WP500)
Systems approach is carried into the detail
Recommended
