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ESA Space Weather Study, Final Presentation:

Study OverviewMike Hapgood

CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory

6 December 2001, ESTEC

THE STUDY TEAM

• CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory• Oxfordshire, UK

• QinetiQ (formerly DERA) • Farnborough and Malvern, UK

• Astrium,• Stevenage, UK

• Finnish Meteorological Institute, • Helsinki, Finland

• Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy• Brussels, Belgium

• Office National d'Etudes et de Recherches Aérospatiales,• Département Environnement Spatial, Toulouse, France

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STUDY APPROACH:study aims and logic

Models ofPhysics

PracticalSystems

Physics

Operator

UpstreamEnvironment

SpaceWeather

Products*

*products may be forecasts, nowcasts or postcasts

measurement ofenvironmentalparameters

LocalEnvironment

CONCEPTUAL VIEW OF A SPACE WEATHER SERVICE

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Two key features:User

Requirements

SystemMeasurementRequirements

InstrumentDefinition

MarketInterviews

Spaceinstruments

Groundsupport

Groundinstruments

Spacearchitecture

SpaceWeatherServiceRequirements for models

OVERALL STUDY FLOW

Traceability!

Benefits & market

analysis

using scientific knowledge of SW

systems approach,

SOME KEY RESULTSjust a flavour!

see our later talks for details

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User CommunityEnd Users

DecisionMakers

Commentators

Perception of User NeedsL a c k o f

P r o t e c t i o n

I n e f f e c t i v ef u n c t i o n a l i t y

G o o dS e r v i c e

OUTREACH

is a critical issue; to improve knowledge of SW among users

Students

NICHE OPPORTUNITIES• Study showed demand for specific well-targeted services:

– e.g. power systems, airlines, geological survey/drilling, ...

• No user demand for over-arching service– integration must be justified by technical or financial advantages to users

• User demand provides a series of niche opportunities – may be exploited by industry (SMEs), government labs & academia

– bottom-up (market) approach appropriate here … BUT …

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DATA INFRASTRUCTURE• Basic data is needed to support these services

• Users see provision of this as public sector task– routine monitoring of environment, e.g. SSN, Kp, foF2, TEC, etc.

– dissemination of physical parameters from that monitoring

– users will not pay for what they see as basic “scientific data”

• This is an important message– key issue for Outreach, especially towards decision-makers

– need to secure existing European data sources as well as developnew sources

measurement ofenvironmentalparameters

Models ofPhysics

PracticalSystems

Physics

Operator

UpstreamEnvironment

SpaceWeather

Products*

*products may be forecasts, nowcasts or postcasts

LocalEnvironment

Science

Data infrastructure is a key part of systemData sources

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DATA SOURCES• requirement analysis shows we need a mix of

space- & ground-based sources

• ground-based sources have major advantages– usually much cheaper and easier to maintain

• but some key requirements must be addressed by space measurements:– practicability (EUV/X-ray, in-situ, kHz radio)

– quality (coronagraphs)

SPACE-BASED MEASUREMENTS• existing/planned missions provide limited data

– SOHO is main European mission

– also smaller European missions, e.g. CHAMP

– international collaboration helps (especially with US)

– still potential gap in L1 coverage 2003-2006

• explored hitch-hiker and dedicated mission solutions

• conclude that a mix of the two is required

• see overview on next slide

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L4 - as L5

L1 - dedicated:solar wind/HMF + solar protons+CRs; solar observations

SUN

L5 - dedicated: observations of Earth-directed solar ejecta

GEO - hitch-hiker:outer radiation belt, solar protons+CRs; solar observations

GTO - dedicated:radiation belt, plasmasphere

SS - hitch-hiker/ dedicated: auroral monitor,micro-particles

Measurement type Network Index Develop?Cross-tail electric field (HF backscatter radarnetwork, i.e. SuperDARN)

Y ? Y

Geomagnetic indices Y YGeomagnetic variations YIonospheric critical frequencies Y YIonospheric total electron content YInterplanetary scintillation (remote sensing ofheliospheric density and velocity)

? Y Y

Secondary neutron fluxes YSolar 10.7 cm radio emission (Penticton index) YSolar surface magnetic field (magnetograph)Sunspot number Y Y

EXAMPLES OF GROUND-BASED SPACE WEATHER MEASUREMENTS

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EXISTING MEASUREMENTS

• ~100 existing European systems catalogued

• good coverage of ground effects, ionosphere & Sun

• but fragmentation leads to vulnerability to funding cuts

Ground

Ionosphere

Sun

ThermosphereSolar wind

Magnetosphere

ESA

ESA SPACE WEATHEROUTREACH CENTRE

NETWORK FORGROUND-BASED SPACE

WEATHER MEASUREMENTS

SPACE WEATHERDEVELOPMENT

GROUP

SPACE WEATHERRESEARCH GROUP

PUBLIC

EndUsers

DecisionMakersCommentatorsService

Providers

DataProviders

Sta

ndar

ds b

odie

s (e

.g. C

CS

DS

, W3C

,etc

.)

fundingStep 1: Encourage key low cost initiatives: (a) secure

existing measurements; (b) identify key open areas for research. BUILD GOOD CASES FOR SUPPORT!

Step 2: Establish outreach centre (moderate cost)

Steps 3-5: Establish space weather development group:3. prototype service (moderate cost)4. prototype space segment (high short-term cost)5. full space segment (high long-term cost)

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More during the day

Implementation Plan at ~5 pm!

SpacecraftInterface

SpaceWeatherService

s/coperator

Ground station

TM & TC

External dataproviders

Users

space weathermonitor

commands

TM parametersTC

monitoring

SW products

comments

problem reports

Conceptual view of SW ground

segment

Classical ground segment:

s/c monitoring and control, TM

up/downlink, TM processing, flight

dynamics

Data to/from hitch-hiker host g/s.

Data from other sources (space &

ground)

Convert basic data to products; user support &

outreach

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number of instances, time resolution, maximum telemetry gap,data rates (raw/reduced), size, mass, power, cost, general

description, heritage, European expertise

SystemMeasurement Requirements

(WP410)

Space-basedmeasurements

Identifypossible

orbits

Ground-basedmeasurements

Identify genericinstruments

Identifyinstrumentattributes

Space segmentoptions (WP420)

Europeanco-ordination

(WP500)

Systems approach is carried into the detail