Prof. Dr. Volker QuaschningHTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
Energy Transition in Germany –The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply
Energy Transition in Germany –The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply
www.volker-quaschning.de
US Congress Longworth BuildingMarch 12, 2012Washington DC
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
2
Impact of Climate Change
Source: NASA
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
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Impact of Climate Change
Source: NASA
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
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High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise
+7 m
Washington DC
Gra
phic
: N
orb
ert
Geuder
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
5
High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise
Washington DC
Gra
phic
: N
orb
ert
Geuder
+70 m
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
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former CO2 emissions
reduction pathfor the two degree target
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Global Requirements for Climate Protection
data: WRI, IEA, PIK-Potsdam
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
Some Nuclear Incidents with Impact on Germany
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Chernobylaccident 1986
Forsmarknear-accident 2006
Asseradioactivestorage disaster 2007
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
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Goals for Renewable Electricity of German Parties
Federal Government
shutdown of nuclear power until 2022>80% renewables until 2050
Opposition
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2050
2030
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2010
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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2010
100% renewables until 2030
75% renewables until 2030
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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2010
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
Installed Renewable Capacity in Germany
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Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
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and in
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fossil power
nuclear power
import (renewable)
photovoltaic
wind power
geothermal power
biomass
hydropower
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Gross Electricity Demand in Germany
HTW scenario: climate protection and sustainable development
20 % 100 %
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
Power Generation of a 100 % Renewable Power Supply
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mean monthly power generation and demand
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solar import
geothermal
hydro power
biomass
wind power
photovoltaics
gross demand
GW
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
Storage Solutions for a Renewable Electricity Supply
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decentralizedbattery storage
electrolysis
methanization
water
oxygen
hydrogen
carbon dioxide
water
methanenatural gasstorage
natural gaspowerstation
naturalgas grid
heat
electricity
excesselectricity
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
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coal or nuclear power
PV Germany, roof
PV Germany, open space
PV North Africa
wind power
domestic electricity price
ct/kWh
Development of Electricity Prices
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grid parity
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
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ct/
kW
h
domestic PV
domestic fuel oil +5% .p.a.
domestic fuel oil +3% p.a.
domestic fuel oil +1% p.a.
Cost Development of Domestic Fuels
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Assumptions: Boiler efficiency 80%, calorific value of fuel oil 10.5 kWh/l
oilparity
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning
HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences
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TWh
Expected Share of PV for the Global Electricity Supply
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0.3 % 50 %
Assumptions: 30% market growth per year until 2025, then 550 GW p.a.
todayGER: 3.5 %USA: 0.05 %