Prof. Dr. Volker QuaschningHTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Energy Transition in Germany –The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply

Energy Transition in Germany –The Way to a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply

www.volker-quaschning.de

US Congress Longworth BuildingMarch 12, 2012Washington DC

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

2

Impact of Climate Change

Source: NASA

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Impact of Climate Change

Source: NASA

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

4

High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise

+7 m

Washington DC

Gra

phic

: N

orb

ert

Geuder

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

5

High Risk Areas due to Sea Level Rise

Washington DC

Gra

phic

: N

orb

ert

Geuder

+70 m

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

0

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CO

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former CO2 emissions

reduction pathfor the two degree target

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Global Requirements for Climate Protection

data: WRI, IEA, PIK-Potsdam

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Some Nuclear Incidents with Impact on Germany

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Chernobylaccident 1986

Forsmarknear-accident 2006

Asseradioactivestorage disaster 2007

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

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Goals for Renewable Electricity of German Parties

Federal Government

shutdown of nuclear power until 2022>80% renewables until 2050

Opposition

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2050

2030

2020

2010

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2050

2030

2020

2010

100% renewables until 2030

75% renewables until 2030

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2050

2030

2020

2010

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Installed Renewable Capacity in Germany

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Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

0

100

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7001990

1995

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Gro

ss e

lectr

icity d

em

and in

TW

h

fossil power

nuclear power

import (renewable)

photovoltaic

wind power

geothermal power

biomass

hydropower

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Gross Electricity Demand in Germany

HTW scenario: climate protection and sustainable development

20 % 100 %

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Power Generation of a 100 % Renewable Power Supply

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mean monthly power generation and demand

0

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solar import

geothermal

hydro power

biomass

wind power

photovoltaics

gross demand

GW

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Storage Solutions for a Renewable Electricity Supply

12

decentralizedbattery storage

electrolysis

methanization

water

oxygen

hydrogen

carbon dioxide

water

methanenatural gasstorage

natural gaspowerstation

naturalgas grid

heat

electricity

excesselectricity

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

0

20

40

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

coal or nuclear power

PV Germany, roof

PV Germany, open space

PV North Africa

wind power

domestic electricity price

ct/kWh

Development of Electricity Prices

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grid parity

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

0

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ct/

kW

h

domestic PV

domestic fuel oil +5% .p.a.

domestic fuel oil +3% p.a.

domestic fuel oil +1% p.a.

Cost Development of Domestic Fuels

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Assumptions: Boiler efficiency 80%, calorific value of fuel oil 10.5 kWh/l

oilparity

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

0

5000

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45000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh

Expected Share of PV for the Global Electricity Supply

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0.3 % 50 %

Assumptions: 30% market growth per year until 2025, then 550 GW p.a.

todayGER: 3.5 %USA: 0.05 %

Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning

HTW Berlin – University of Applied Sciences

Thank you for your Attention

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www.volker-quaschning.de

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