Digital Futures2050’s visions inspiring 2020’s policies
Franco AccordinoHead of Task Force "Digital Futures"
DG CONNECT, European Commission
Brainstorming with the CRIS CommunityBrussels, 11 September 2012
Mission
inspire future strategic choices
“Digital Futures is a participatory visioning project
aiming to devise 2050’s visions & policy ‘routes’
underpinned by the long term advances of ICT”
3/10
2015-2025 (?)
2035-2045
2040-2050
Futures 2040-2050
Policy Options
EC mandates2010-2014 2015-2019 2035-2039 2040-2044
Barroso II
Policy Frameworks
Insp
ire s
trate
gic c
hoices
Purpose: inform future strategic choices
2010-2020 (Europe 2020)
+ Evidence+ Participation+ Agility
4/10
Engagement strategy
1) Host conversations/dialogues with stakeholders
• Standard format: participatory brainstorming
• Contributors: scientists, citizens, policy makers,…
• Virtual (webinar) & in-person meetings
• Going local: Member States, schools, conferences…
• Viral process: loosely coordinated, but with simple, shared rules
2) Capture content into an open, standard online platform (futurium)
• Based on a fixed meta-model (futures, policies,…) & workflow
• Enabling co-creation (wiki), voting, forecasting, back casting, mapping,…
• Automatic semantic annotation, data mining, correlation, fact-finding
• Agent-based gaming and simulation (early 2013)
emergent collective intelligenceemergent collective intelligence
5/10
Futures(Visions)
Policies
Inspire
Impact on individuals, society, economy,
environment, politics, technologies,…
Real world
Trends
ScientificEvidence
Sense & Analyse data, Identify issues and challenges,
Elicit knowledge
(Re-)shapeInform
Envision
IMPLEMENTATION /REVIEW
DESIGN
Build on scientific evidence & people‘s opinion to inform policy decisions
Stakeholders
Policy makers
Other factors than evidence
6/10
Meta-model to engage stakeholders
Trend
Every European
Digital
Future
Future
Future
DAE Policy
A1 A101 AA
BA C
Futures (visions)
Policies
pillars
actions
Agents
p1 p7
2012 2020 2050
Policies:• Are expressed as S.M.A.R.T.
objectives• May be structured (e.g. pillars)• Atomic level: timed actions• Have a measurable impact • Other measurable attributes
(e.g. plausibility, innovation, …)
Futures:• Desirability (emotional view) • Likelihood (rational/scientific view)• Causality: antecedent->consequent• Forecasting vs. back casting
Agents:• Stakeholders in broad sense (EC, MS,
Regions, Industry, Citizens…)• Implementers (those who execute
the actions)• Verifiers• Decision makers
Policy
AA
p p
AA
FutureFutureFuture
@? #
7/10
Digital Futures workflow
Conversation on Futures
Co-create (wiki) and synthesise
Lock
Co-create (wiki) and synthesise
Futures(outlined form)
Futures(detailed form)
Conversation on policies
Policy options(outlined form)
Back/Fore cast, analyse &
vote
PrioritisedFutures
Policy options(detailed form)
ready?
Reality check, analyse & vote
PrioritisedPolicies
ready?
LockUnlock
NO YES
NO YES
START WITH A CONVERSATION (Mar 2012) START CREATING ONLINE (Oct 2012)
(Dec 2012)
8/10
Digital Futures achievements(July 2012)
• 70+ conversations in person/online , 20+ interviews
• 100+ mind maps, 16 draft trends, 8 draft visions…
• Engaging non usual partners (schools, youth associations, …)
• Meta-model and its experimental implementation– Test phase till 30 September 2012 @ www.futurium.eu
• Next milestones: – Click&Join futurium as of 01/10/12 @ www.europa.eu/digital_agenda/futures
– Digital Future conversations in the pipeline: • Presidency event with youth, 14-15/09
• EP event, 27 Nov 2012
• Going local campaign, Sep-Dec 2012
• Futures @ World Foresight Forum, April 2013
• Final event, Nov 2013
• …
– Releases of visions an policy options: 31/10/12, 31/05/13, 30/11/13
Building on achievements and best practices (smart regulation,…)!
9/10
Energy positive
“Play & Rewind”
Bionics and cyborgs
Implanted/ Embedded (bio-neuro-cogno-nano)“Organic”
computing
Cloudcomputing
Energy efficient
Internet
Cognitive and soft robots Complex
systemsmodeling
Virtualisation
2015-20 2040-50
Fou
ndati
on
s
T
ech
nolo
gie
s C
halle
nges/
Issu
es
Financial crisis
Sustainability
Healthyageing
Resourceefficiency
Climatechanges
Governance
TrustSecurityprivacy
Property,Ownership
Balancedresource sharing Participative
decision
Governance
~Immortality
Interim/beta status
Body/mind adaptation
Quantum Internet
Trans-humanism
Technological futures & related challenges (ver. 07/12)
“Conventional” ICT (Silicon based, Packet switching, Boolean, …)
Future foundatinos:ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Cogno-
Quantum convergence
10/10
More emerging trends and visions (July 2012)
Trends:
1. Urbanisation (including transportation)
2. Tension between representative and delegate democracy
3. Rise of digital natives
4. Behavioural transformation
5. Shifting power in geopolitics
6. Current model of capitalism is running out of steam
7. Cyber-physical convergence
8. Personalized manufacturing (3D printing and more)
9. Hyper-connectivity (e.g. internet, pervasiveness of ICT)
10.Global Warming
11.Depreciation of money (governmental monetary policies)
12.Globalisation and ethics
13.Exponential rate of technological change
14.Renaissance of space exploration
15.Instability through instrumentalisation of religion
16.Scarcity of natural resources (including energy)
Visions:1. Environment, energy and space in
20502. Personal life in 20503. Economy in 20504. Robotics in 20505. Technology in 20506. Health in 20507. Social life in 20508. Politics in 2050
Work in progress @ http://www.futurium.eu/all-editable-futures
11/10
Thanks
http://ec.europa.eu/digital-futures
http://www.europa.eu/digital_agenda/futures (as of 1 Oct 2012)
12/10
IntroVoting & selection
Open circle(all suggest topics)
The conversation of the day with euroCRIS
Parallel tables
Parallel tables
Parallel tables
ReportingFinal closing
circle
13/10
Stakeholders
ParticipatoryTools
Policy Makers
mine & visualise mine &
visualise
Social Media (Twitter, FB, G+,…)
Participate
Participate
Real world data
ParticipateParticipate
Data Gathering
Data Crawling
OpenDataCloud
KnowledgeHarvesting Tools
Futurium’s conceptual architecture
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