Digital Futures 2050’s visions inspiring 2020’s policies Franco Accordino Head of Task Force "Digital Futures" DG CONNECT, European Commission Brainstorming

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  • Digital Futures2050s visions inspiring 2020s policies

    Franco AccordinoHead of Task Force "Digital Futures"DG CONNECT, European CommissionBrainstorming with the CRIS CommunityBrussels, 11 September 2012

  • Missioninspire future strategic choicesDigital Futures is a participatory visioning project aiming to devise 2050s visions & policy routes underpinned by the long term advances of ICT

  • */102015-2025 (?)2035-20452040-2050Futures 2040-2050Policy OptionsEC mandates2010-20142015-20192035-20392040-2044Barroso IIPolicy FrameworksInspire strategic choicesPurpose: inform future strategic choices2010-2020 (Europe 2020) Evidence Participation Agility

  • */10Engagement strategy1) Host conversations/dialogues with stakeholdersStandard format: participatory brainstormingContributors: scientists, citizens, policy makers,Virtual (webinar) & in-person meetingsGoing local: Member States, schools, conferencesViral process: loosely coordinated, but with simple, shared rules2) Capture content into an open, standard online platform (futurium) Based on a fixed meta-model (futures, policies,) & workflowEnabling co-creation (wiki), voting, forecasting, back casting, mapping,Automatic semantic annotation, data mining, correlation, fact-findingAgent-based gaming and simulation (early 2013)

    emergent collective intelligence

  • */10Futures(Visions)PoliciesInspireImpact on individuals, society, economy, environment, politics, technologies,Scientific EvidenceSense & Analyse data, Identify issues and challenges,Elicit knowledge(Re-)shapeInformEnvisionIMPLEMENTATION /REVIEWDESIGNBuild on scientific evidence & peoples opinion to inform policy decisionsStakeholdersPolicy makersOther factors than evidence

  • */10Meta-model to engage stakeholdersFutureFutureFutureDAEPolicyA1A101AABACFutures (visions)Policies

    pillars

    actionsAgentsp1p72012 2020 2050Policies:Are expressed as S.M.A.R.T. objectivesMay be structured (e.g. pillars)Atomic level: timed actionsHave a measurable impact Other measurable attributes (e.g. plausibility, innovation, )Futures:Desirability (emotional view) Likelihood (rational/scientific view)Causality: antecedent->consequentForecasting vs. back castingAgents:Stakeholders in broad sense (EC, MS, Regions, Industry, Citizens)Implementers (those who execute the actions)VerifiersDecision makersPolicyAAppAAFutureFutureFuture@?#

  • */10Digital Futures workflow Conversation on FuturesCo-create (wiki) and synthesiseCo-create (wiki) and synthesiseFutures(outlined form)Futures(detailed form)Conversation on policiesPolicy options(outlined form)Back/Fore cast, analyse & votePrioritisedFuturesPolicy options(detailed form)ready?Reality check, analyse & votePrioritisedPoliciesready?NOYESNOYESSTART WITH A CONVERSATION (Mar 2012)START CREATING ONLINE (Oct 2012)(Dec 2012)

  • */10Digital Futures achievements(July 2012)70+ conversations in person/online , 20+ interviews100+ mind maps, 16 draft trends, 8 draft visionsEngaging non usual partners (schools, youth associations, )Meta-model and its experimental implementationTest phase till 30 September 2012 @ www.futurium.eu Next milestones: Click&Join futurium as of 01/10/12 @ www.europa.eu/digital_agenda/futures Digital Future conversations in the pipeline: Presidency event with youth, 14-15/09EP event, 27 Nov 2012Going local campaign, Sep-Dec 2012Futures @ World Foresight Forum, April 2013Final event, Nov 2013Releases of visions an policy options: 31/10/12, 31/05/13, 30/11/13Building on achievements and best practices (smart regulation,)!

  • */10Energy positivePlay & RewindBionics and cyborgs Implanted/ Embedded (bio-neuro-cogno-nano)Organic computingCloud computingEnergy efficientInternet Cognitive and soft robotsComplex systemsmodelingVirtualisation2015-202040-50Foundations Technologies Challenges/IssuesFinancial crisisSustainabilityHealthyageingResourceefficiencyClimatechangesGovernanceTrustSecurityprivacyProperty,OwnershipBalancedresource sharingParticipativedecisionGovernance~ImmortalityInterim/beta statusBody/mind adaptationQuantum Internet Trans-humanismTechnological futures & related challenges (ver. 07/12)Conventional ICT (Silicon based, Packet switching, Boolean, )Future foundatinos:ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Cogno-Quantum convergence

  • */10More emerging trends and visions (July 2012)Trends:Urbanisation (including transportation)Tension between representative and delegate democracyRise of digital nativesBehavioural transformationShifting power in geopoliticsCurrent model of capitalism is running out of steamCyber-physical convergencePersonalized manufacturing (3D printing and more)Hyper-connectivity (e.g. internet, pervasiveness of ICT)Global WarmingDepreciation of money (governmental monetary policies)Globalisation and ethicsExponential rate of technological changeRenaissance of space explorationInstability through instrumentalisation of religionScarcity of natural resources (including energy)Visions:Environment, energy and space in 2050Personal life in 2050Economy in 2050Robotics in 2050Technology in 2050Health in 2050Social life in 2050Politics in 2050Work in progress @ http://www.futurium.eu/all-editable-futures

  • */10Thankshttp://ec.europa.eu/digital-futures

    http://www.europa.eu/digital_agenda/futures (as of 1 Oct 2012)

  • */10IntroVoting & selectionOpen circle(all suggest topics)The conversation of the day with euroCRISParallel tablesParallel tablesParallel tablesReportingFinal closing circle

  • */10StakeholdersParticipatoryToolsPolicy Makersmine & visualise mine & visualise Social Media (Twitter, FB, G+,)ParticipateParticipateParticipateParticipateData GatheringData CrawlingKnowledgeHarvesting ToolsFuturiums conceptual architecture

    ****Other factors than evidence= ideologies, personal interest, wishes, and other non-computable factors.

    *Meta-model=Taxonomy or vocabulary of terms/concepts (e.g. visions, trends, policies, targets, actions,) each with their attributes.Workflow to process the terms/concept*****