Preventative Defense & Space Cooperation:
A Case for Liberal Engagement with the Russian Space Industry
Dan BerkenstockStanford University Aero/Astro Department
2005 IDL Student Conference on International Security
Background
United States foreign policy towards Russia during the 1990’s was dominated by a struggle between realists and liberalists in the United States government:
Should US policy seek to increase US favor in the struggle for international power?
Should the US should bring its full weight towards enacting internal change in Russia?
A Two Tiered Problem
Tier One
Missile Technology Control RegimeInternational Space Station
The emergence of stabilizing forces
RSA (РКА)
Realist threat, met with liberal engagement
Crisis
Tier TwoMission statementPlace in global space marketplace
Future
Liberal interests: international institutions, development of commercial interests
A Strategic Choice
Potential missile cooperation/ proliferation
Input
OutputsLiberal engagement
Realist disengagement
Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000No transferring of funds from NASA to Russian Space Agency for International Space Station
Sanctions for Russian entities in violation of MTCR
Penalties to American companies collaborating
Preventative Defense
Preventative Defense says:
Identify rising A-level threats, shape international environment to avert them preventatively.
A-Level Threat
Emergence of Russian Space Industry as pariah providing turn-key missile packages to a number of regimes
Arguments vs. Realism
Issue of monolithic chain of command
Asymmetric impact of funding withdrawal
Success stories required engagement
Alternatives
Targeted funding for engineering development (ISTC’s)
Boots on the ground
Space Station contingency engineering
Integration at all levels
Conclusions
Big Task
Change decades old business plan in face of possible political and security considerations for Russia. Will not happen overnight.
United States as Salesman vs. Policeman