Preventative Defense & Space Cooperation:

A Case for Liberal Engagement with the Russian Space Industry

Dan BerkenstockStanford University Aero/Astro Department

2005 IDL Student Conference on International Security

Background

United States foreign policy towards Russia during the 1990’s was dominated by a struggle between realists and liberalists in the United States government:

Should US policy seek to increase US favor in the struggle for international power?

Should the US should bring its full weight towards enacting internal change in Russia?

A Two Tiered Problem

Tier One

Missile Technology Control RegimeInternational Space Station

The emergence of stabilizing forces

RSA (РКА)

Realist threat, met with liberal engagement

Crisis

Tier TwoMission statementPlace in global space marketplace

Future

Liberal interests: international institutions, development of commercial interests

A Strategic Choice

Potential missile cooperation/ proliferation

Input

OutputsLiberal engagement

Realist disengagement

Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000No transferring of funds from NASA to Russian Space Agency for International Space Station

Sanctions for Russian entities in violation of MTCR

Penalties to American companies collaborating

Preventative Defense

Preventative Defense says:

Identify rising A-level threats, shape international environment to avert them preventatively.

A-Level Threat

Emergence of Russian Space Industry as pariah providing turn-key missile packages to a number of regimes

Arguments vs. Realism

Issue of monolithic chain of command

Asymmetric impact of funding withdrawal

Success stories required engagement

Alternatives

Targeted funding for engineering development (ISTC’s)

Boots on the ground

Space Station contingency engineering

Integration at all levels

Conclusions

Big Task

Change decades old business plan in face of possible political and security considerations for Russia. Will not happen overnight.

United States as Salesman vs. Policeman