Thomas Barnett, Jr. | Director, SP Thought Leadership
Arielle Sumits | Senior Analyst
Shruti Jain | Senior Analyst
Usha Andra | Senior Analyst
Taru Khurana | Senior Analyst
June 2017
Global Forecast Update, 2016–2021
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) and VNI Service Adoption
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Internet Growth and Trends
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
Key Digital Transformers
By 2021
2016
2021
3.3 Billion
4.6 Billion
17.1 Billion
27.1 Billion
27.5 Mbps
53.0 Mbps
73% of Traffic
82% of Traffic
More Devices & Connections
FasterBroadbandSpeeds
More Video Viewing
More Internet Users
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Overview
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
3.3 zettabytes is equal to:
• 14X more than all IP traffic generated in 2010 (232 exabytes)
• All movies ever made crossing global IP networks every minute
By 2021, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 3.3 zettabytes per year
• One trillion gigabytes
• Approximately 1021
(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)
What is a zettabyte?
Establishing the Zettabyte Era
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
VNI Projections and Actuals (Global)Actual growth has been within ±10% of projected growth
29.1% 29.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2011-2016 CAGR
Projected in 2012
Actual (Reported in 2017)Compound Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
24% CAGR 2016–2021
Global IP Traffic Growth Global IP traffic will increase 3-fold from 2016 to 2021
96 122
151
186
228
278
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Exabytes per Month
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
24% CAGR 2016–2021
Global IP Traffic Growth by RegionMEA has the highest growth rate (42%) from 2016 to 2021APAC will generate 39% of all IP traffic by 2021
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Middle East and Africa (MEA) (42% CAGR)
Latin America (LATAM) (21% CAGR)
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (22% CAGR)
Western Europe (WE) (22% CAGR)
North America (NA) (20% CAGR)
Asia Pacific (APAC) (26% CAGR)
Exabytes per Month
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
30.6%
38.7%
5.6%
13.5%
6.1%
5.6%
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Fixed and Mobile Growth in 2016Most countries have higher mobile than fixed growthBut there are a growing number of exceptions
AustraliaCanada
ChinaFrance
India
Indonesia
JapanUKUS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Mobile Growth
in 2016
Fixed Internet Growth in 2016
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
10% CAGR 2016–2021
Global Device/Connection Growth by TypeBy 2021, M2M connections will be more than half of total connections
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Other (1.6%,1.8%)
Tablets (3%,3%)
PCs (8%,5%)
TVs (12%,12%)
Non-Smartphones (19%,6%)
Smartphones (21%,23%)
M2M (34%, 51%)
Billions of Devices
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 device share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Devices and ConnectionsAverage per capita and per household
Average Number
of Devices and
Connections per
Capita
2016
2.3 Devices &
Connections
2021
3.5 Devices &
Connections
Average Number
of Devices and
Connections per
Household
6 Devices &
Connections
8.5 Devices &
Connections
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
9% CAGR 2016–2021
Global Video Capable Device Growth by TypeBy 2021, nearly half (48%) of total devices and connections will be video capable
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Other (0.4%,0.2%)
Tablets (7%,6%)
PCs (18%,10%)
TVs (25%,25%)
Smartphones (44%,48%)
M2M (6%, 12%)
Billions of Devices
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 device share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
SD 2 Mbps
HD 7.2 Mbps
UHD 18 Mbps
Connected 4K TV Sets
(M)
Increasing Video DefinitionBy 2021, more than half (56%) of connected flat panel TVs will support 4K
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
85
156
253
373
513
663
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
51% CAGR 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Average IP Traffic Per Device
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
2016 2021MBs per Month MBs per Month
3,500 14,900
9,100 25,600
15,882 27,731
30,600 55,100
27,375 47,804
M2M Module
Tablet
Smartphone
Internet Set-Top or Dongle
Laptop / PC
328 1044
Ultra High Definition TV*
* Note: Includes IP VoD traffic
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
24% CAGR 2016–2021
Global IP Traffic by Device TypeBy 2021, non-PC devices will drive 75% of global IP traffic
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Other (0.03%,0.02%)
Tablets (5%,7%)
PCs (46%,25%)
TVs (33%,30%)
Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%)
Smartphones (13%,33%)
M2M (2%, 5%)
Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
26% CAGR 2016–2021
Global Internet Traffic by Device TypeBy 2021, non-PC devices will drive 72% of global Internet traffic
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Other (0.04%,0.03%)
Tablets (7%,8%)
PCs (56%,28%)
TVs (16%,19%)
Non-Smartphones (0.2%,0.1%)
Smartphones (17%,39%)
M2M (3%, 6%)
Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
By 2021, M2M modules will be 51%(13.7 billion) of total global devices and connections and will account for 5% (14.3 EBs/month) of total global IP traffic.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
19% CAGR 2016–2021
Global M2M Connections / IoT GrowthBy 2021, 1.75 M2M connections per capita globally
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Middle East and Africa (21% CAGR)
Latin America (19% CAGR)
Central and Eastern Europe (20% CAGR)
Western Europe (19% CAGR)
North America (19% CAGR)
Asia Pacific (18% CAGR)
Billions of M2M
Connections
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
5.6%
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
49% CAGR 2016–2021
Global M2M Traffic GrowthM2M traffic will grow more than 7-fold from 2016 to 2021
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Middle East and Africa (52% CAGR)
Latin America (53% CAGR)
Central and Eastern Europe (57% CAGR)
Western Europe (48% CAGR)
North America (45% CAGR)
Asia Pacific (51% CAGR)
Exabytes per Month
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
5.6%
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
19% CAGR 2016–2021
Global M2M Connections / IoT Growth by VerticalBy 2021, connected home largest, connected health fastest growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Other (1% CAGR)
Energy (25% CAGR)
Mfg & Supply Chain (9% CAGR)
Retail (15% CAGR)
Connected Car (29% CAGR)
Connected Cities (29% CAGR)
Connected Health (30% CAGR)
Connected Work (15% CAGR)
Connected Home (18% CAGR)
Billions of M2M
Connections
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
IPv6 Capable Mobile
Devices
IPv6 Capable Fixed
Devices
3.4B
8.1B
1.6B
Global IPv6-Capable Devices/Connections By 2021, 61% of devices/connections will be IPv6-capable
8.4B
Number of Devices (Billions)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
27% CAGR 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Middle East and Africa (MEA) (100%
CAGR)Latin America (LATAM) (61% CAGR)
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
(68% CAGR)Western Europe (WE) (67% CAGR)
North America (NA) (80% CAGR)
Asia Pacific (APAC) (73% CAGR)
Global IPv6 Traffic Growth / RegionsBy 2021, IPv6 will represent 37% of total Internet traffic
34.1%
Exabytes per Month
5.5
87
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
33.1%
15.3%6%5.3%6.2%
74% CAGR 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
24% CAGR 2016–2021
Global IP Traffic by Application TypeBy 2021, video will account for 82% of global IP trafficGaming starts showing significant growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Gaming (1%,4%)
File Sharing (8%,3%)
Web/Data (18%,11%)
IP VOD (22%,14.5%)
Internet Video (51%, 67.4%)
Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
31% CAGR 2016–2021
Global Internet Video Traffic by TypeBy 2021, live video will increase 15-fold and reach 13% of Internet video traffic
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Video Surveillance (2%,3%)
Live Internet Video (3%,13%)
Long-Form Internet VoD (60%,57%)
Short-Form Internet VoD (34%, 26%)
Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
0.09 0.24
0.49
0.85
1.25
1.72
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Virtual and Augmented Reality TrafficBy 2021, VR/AR traffic will increase 20-fold, 1% of Entertainment Traffic
82% CAGR 2016–2021
Exabytes per
Month
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
26% CAGR 2016–2021
High Definition Content Impacts IP Video GrowthUHD IP video will account for 21% of global IP video traffic by 2021
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (2%, 21%)
High Def (HD) Video (47%,57%)
Standard Def (SD) Video (51%,22%)Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
14% CAGR 2016–2021
High Definition Content Impacts IP VOD GrowthUHD VOD will account for 30% of global IP VOD traffic by 2021
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Ultra-High Def (UHD) VOD (1%, 30%)
High Def (HD) VOD (76%,66%)
Standard Def (SD) VOD (23%,4%)Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage
Average Traffic
per User
2016
24 GB per month
2021
57 GB per month
Future
200 GB per month
Average Traffic
per Household
63 GB per month 155 GB per month 500 GB per month
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Internet Households Reshape Usage LimitsInternet households exceeding 1 TB doubled in 2016
1.9
3.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2015 2016
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
Terabyte
Households
(Millions)
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Usage Limits: Fixed vs. MobileHistorically, mobile caps affected a larger percentage of users than fixedWith unlimited mobile plans, top-end user ratio is similar to fixed
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
1.9%
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
4.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.7%
0.6%
0.1%
Latin America
COUNTRY
2015 2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
% Broadband HH
> 1 TB
% Mobile Users
> 20 GB
Global 0.5% 0.8%
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Pbps
Busy Hour Internet Traffic (CAGR 35%)
Average Internet Traffic (CAGR 26%)
Global Busy-Hour vs. Average Hour Internet TrafficBy 2021, busy Internet traffic will be 3X greater than average traffic (video driven)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
26% CAGR 2016–2021
Global Content Delivery Network (CDN) TrafficCDNs will deliver 71 percent of Internet traffic by 2021
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Non-CDN Internet Traffic (48%,29%)
CDN Internet Traffic (52%, 71%)
Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
End-User Internet Traffic Moving Closer to the EdgeOver one-third of traffic will bypass core completely by 2021
Within Metro22% in 201635% by 2021
(100% cumulative)
Core – Regional20% by 201623% by 2021
(64% cumulative)
Core – Cross-Country58% in 201641% by 2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
10% CAGR 2016–2021
Global Enterprise SD-WAN TrafficSD-WAN traffic will grow at a CAGR of 44% compared to 5% for traditional WAN SD-WAN will increase 6x and will be 25% of WAN traffic by 2021
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
SD-WAN Traffic (6.4%,24.9%)
Traditional IP WAN Traffic (94%, 75.1%)
Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Video Users / SubscribersMobile video growing fastest, followed by online video
1.91.6
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Online Video (5.8% CAGR)
Digital TV HH (4.2% CAGR)
Mobile Video (14.8% CAGR)
Billions
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
Global Digital Media Adapters* GrowthBy 2021, DMAs will represent 16% of global Internet set-top boxes (STB)by 2021, DMAs will represent 34% of global Internet STB traffic
Digital Media
Adapters(M) 138.8
172.4
203.7
230.3 249.6
261.3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
4.3
6.3
8.7
11.1
13.414.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DMA Traffic (EB/Month)
* DMAs include devices such as Roku, Apple TV, Chromecast
14% CAGR 2016–2021
27% CAGR 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cord-Cutting Household Traffic Is 86% HigherA global cord-cutting household generates 117 GB per month in 2017, compared to 63 GB per month for an average household
63
117
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2016
Average Household
Cord-Cutting HouseholdGB per
Household per Month
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Wi-Fi Hotspot Coverage and Availability
Existing Growth Future
• Pay-as-you-go
• Free access promoting other services (Retail free Wi-Fi)
• Managed services (venues and outdoor)
• Cellular offload (user promoted)
• Added value for broadband subscription
• Advertising and sponsorship
• Cellular offload (carrier driven)
• Community Wi-Fi/ homespots
• Carrier-grade VoWiFi
• TV everywhere
• Large events
• Big data analytics
• Public transportation Wi-Fi
• Wi-Fi Capacity trading
• Transaction platform
• Internet of things
• Context awareness
• HetNet Wi-Fi + mobile
• Connected car (in-car Wi-Fi)
Back to Trends Menu
Total Public WLAN + Community Hotspots
2016 2021
94.0 M 541.6 M
Total Incremental Hotspots ?
Source: Maravedis, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
42% CAGR 2016–2021
Global Public Wi-Fi HotspotsAsia Pacific leads with 246 Million (45%) Hotspots by 2021
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Middle East and Africa (MEA) (34% CAGR)
Central and Eastern Europe (49% CAGR)
Latin America (72% CAGR)
North America (34% CAGR)
Western Europe (25% CAGR)
Asia Pacific (59% CAGR)
Millions of Hotspots
Source: Global Public Wi-Fi Hotspots Asia Pacific Leads with 246 Million (45%) Hotspots by 2021
23%
45%
4%
17%
9%
* Middle East and Africa represents 1% of global public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2021
94
542
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
802.11n
600 Mbps Max
Medium Resolution Video
802.11ac
3.6 Gbps Max
High Resolution Video
Wired Complement
802.11ax
10 Gbps Max
Dense IoT Deployment
DOCSIS 3.0
38 Mbps per channel
VDSL2
100 Mbps Max
Medium Resolution Video
DOCSIS 3.1
54 Mbps.
VDSL2-VPlus
300 Mbps Max
G.fast
150-1000 Mbps Max.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Future of Wired and Wireless Technologies
By 2021, 98.1% of BB CPE will be equipped with 802.11acFuture Wi-Fi Enables Virtualization, IoT, Speech Processing, Security, Data Analytics
Full Duplex
DOCSIS 3.1
10 Gbps symmetrical
Inflection point for DOCSIS 3.1 in 2019Future Wired Enables 4K, Immersive 360 video, VR, High Dynamic Range, High Frame Rate, 8K
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
24% CAGR 2016–2021
Global IP Traffic by Local Access TechnologyBy 2021, 63% of total IP traffic will be wireless*
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mobile (46% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (16% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (48% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (18% CAGR)
Exabytes per Month
* Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
19.8%
25.7%
37.1%
17.4%
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
26% CAGR 2016–2021
Global Internet Traffic by Local Access TechnologyBy 2021, 73% of total Internet traffic will be wireless*
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mobile (46% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (18% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (48% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (18% CAGR)
Exabytes per Month
* Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
23.4%
29.3%
26.9%
20.5%
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Average Fixed Broadband SpeedsDoubling in speeds from 2016–2021
Global
BY REGION
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Central and Eastern Europe
North America
Middle East & Africa
27.5
33.9
9.3
30.2
29.2
32.9
7.8
53.0
63.7
20.5
53.6
45.5
74.2
17.1
Western Europe
GLOBAL
2016 2021
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
In Mbps
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences
85% of all broadband
connections by 2021
Online Video
(HD movie download)
22 minutes
(UHD movie download)
2 hours
51% of all broadband
connections by 2021
Online Video
(HD movie download)
9 minutes
(UHD movie download)
48 minutes
13% of all broadband
connections by 2021
Online Video
(HD movie download)
2 minutes
(UHD movie download)
12 minutes
10 Mbps 25 Mbps 100 Mbps
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
28 8161751
100
167
500
HD Camera
IP Video
2 UHD Cameras
UHD Streaming
VR
UHD IP Video
8K Wall TV
HD VR
UHD VR
Video in the Home of Today and the FutureSignificant demand for video in the home of the future
Application requirements In Mbps
Today
Future
Today
Future
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global Average Wi-Fi SpeedsWi-Fi speeds double from 2016–2021
Global
BY REGION
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Central and Eastern Europe
North America
Middle East & Africa
18.2
19.5
7.7
20.3
16.7
27.4
4.9
37.1
40.7
13.9
35.1
31.6
52.3
9.0
Western Europe
GLOBAL
2016 2021
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
In Mbps
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Top Trends
Devices & Connections
Devices/Connections Mix
IoT/M2M by Verticals
IPv6 Adoption
Traffic Trends
Traffic Growth by App
Traffic Pattern Analysis
“Cord-Cutting”
Network Performance and User Experience
Wi-Fi Momentum
Accelerating Speeds
Security Analysis
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Peak attack size increased 60% Y/Y.
DDoS attacks can represent up to 18% of a country’s total Internet traffic while they are occurring.
Average DDoS attack size increases at 22% which is relatively the same rate as Internet traffic at 29% Y/Y.
DDoS Attack Size and Traffic Increasing
Source: Arbor Networks, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
20% CAGR 2016–2021
Number of DDoS Attacks Greater than 1 GbpsAttacks grew 172% in 2016, will increase 2.5-fold to 3.1 million by 2021 globally
1.3
1.6
2.0
2.3
2.7
3.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021
Millions
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Technologies with the biggest security implications are publicclouds, big data and mobile applications, each of which have seen high adoption rates in recent years.
65%
63%
61%
60%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
Public-cloud
software
Big data
application
Mobile
business
applications
Hybrid
clouds
Source: Forbes Insight with BMC, 2017
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
33,488 Records Exposed per Breach
Source: 2016 Identity Theft Resource Center, 2016 EoY Report
Total Breaches: 1,093 Records Exposed: 36.6 Million
Highest in Business: 45.3% Highest in Healthcare: 43.6%
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Enabling Authentication and Secure Internet Percentage of secure Internet servers to all web-Facing Servers
North America
24% CEE
46%
Western
Europe
40%
Latin
America
12%
MEA
11%Asia Pacific
17%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index 2016-2021
© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
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