Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) and VNI Service Adoption...Global Internet Growth and Trends Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021 Key Digital Transformers

Thomas Barnett, Jr. | Director, SP Thought Leadership

Arielle Sumits | Senior Analyst

Shruti Jain | Senior Analyst

Usha Andra | Senior Analyst

Taru Khurana | Senior Analyst

June 2017

Global Forecast Update, 2016–2021

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) and VNI Service Adoption

© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential

Global Internet Growth and Trends

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021

Key Digital Transformers

By 2021

2016

2021

3.3 Billion

4.6 Billion

17.1 Billion

27.1 Billion

27.5 Mbps

53.0 Mbps

73% of Traffic

82% of Traffic

More Devices & Connections

FasterBroadbandSpeeds

More Video Viewing

More Internet Users


Overview


3.3 zettabytes is equal to:

• 14X more than all IP traffic generated in 2010 (232 exabytes)

• All movies ever made crossing global IP networks every minute

By 2021, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 3.3 zettabytes per year

• One trillion gigabytes

• Approximately 1021

(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)

What is a zettabyte?

Establishing the Zettabyte Era



VNI Projections and Actuals (Global)Actual growth has been within ±10% of projected growth

29.1% 29.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2011-2016 CAGR

Projected in 2012

Actual (Reported in 2017)Compound Annual Growth

Rate (CAGR)



24% CAGR 2016–2021

Global IP Traffic Growth Global IP traffic will increase 3-fold from 2016 to 2021

96 122

151

186

228

278

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Exabytes per Month



24% CAGR 2016–2021

Global IP Traffic Growth by RegionMEA has the highest growth rate (42%) from 2016 to 2021APAC will generate 39% of all IP traffic by 2021

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Middle East and Africa (MEA) (42% CAGR)

Latin America (LATAM) (21% CAGR)

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (22% CAGR)

Western Europe (WE) (22% CAGR)

North America (NA) (20% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (APAC) (26% CAGR)

Exabytes per Month


30.6%

38.7%

5.6%

13.5%

6.1%

5.6%


Fixed and Mobile Growth in 2016Most countries have higher mobile than fixed growthBut there are a growing number of exceptions

AustraliaCanada

ChinaFrance

India

Indonesia

JapanUKUS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Mobile Growth

in 2016

Fixed Internet Growth in 2016



Top Trends


Top Trends

Devices & Connections

Devices/Connections Mix

IoT/M2M by Verticals

IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends

Traffic Growth by App

Traffic Pattern Analysis

“Cord-Cutting”

Network Performance and User Experience

Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis


Top Trends




IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends



“Cord-Cutting”


Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis


10% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Device/Connection Growth by TypeBy 2021, M2M connections will be more than half of total connections

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other (1.6%,1.8%)

Tablets (3%,3%)

PCs (8%,5%)

TVs (12%,12%)

Non-Smartphones (19%,6%)

Smartphones (21%,23%)

M2M (34%, 51%)

Billions of Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 device share



Global Devices and ConnectionsAverage per capita and per household

Average Number

of Devices and

Connections per

Capita

2016

2.3 Devices &

Connections

2021

3.5 Devices &

Connections

Average Number

of Devices and

Connections per

Household

6 Devices &

Connections

8.5 Devices &

Connections



9% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Video Capable Device Growth by TypeBy 2021, nearly half (48%) of total devices and connections will be video capable

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other (0.4%,0.2%)

Tablets (7%,6%)

PCs (18%,10%)

TVs (25%,25%)


M2M (6%, 12%)

Billions of Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 device share



SD 2 Mbps

HD 7.2 Mbps

UHD 18 Mbps

Connected 4K TV Sets

(M)

Increasing Video DefinitionBy 2021, more than half (56%) of connected flat panel TVs will support 4K


85

156

253

373

513

663

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

51% CAGR 2016–2021


Global Average IP Traffic Per Device


2016 2021MBs per Month MBs per Month

3,500 14,900

9,100 25,600

15,882 27,731

30,600 55,100

27,375 47,804

M2M Module

Tablet

Smartphone

Internet Set-Top or Dongle

Laptop / PC

328 1044

Ultra High Definition TV*

* Note: Includes IP VoD traffic


24% CAGR 2016–2021

Global IP Traffic by Device TypeBy 2021, non-PC devices will drive 75% of global IP traffic

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other (0.03%,0.02%)

Tablets (5%,7%)

PCs (46%,25%)

TVs (33%,30%)

Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%)


M2M (2%, 5%)

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share



26% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Internet Traffic by Device TypeBy 2021, non-PC devices will drive 72% of global Internet traffic

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other (0.04%,0.03%)

Tablets (7%,8%)

PCs (56%,28%)

TVs (16%,19%)

Non-Smartphones (0.2%,0.1%)


M2M (3%, 6%)

Exabytes per Month




Top Trends




IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends



“Cord-Cutting”


Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis

© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential

By 2021, M2M modules will be 51%(13.7 billion) of total global devices and connections and will account for 5% (14.3 EBs/month) of total global IP traffic.



19% CAGR 2016–2021

Global M2M Connections / IoT GrowthBy 2021, 1.75 M2M connections per capita globally

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Middle East and Africa (21% CAGR)

Latin America (19% CAGR)

Central and Eastern Europe (20% CAGR)

Western Europe (19% CAGR)

North America (19% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (18% CAGR)

Billions of M2M

Connections


5.6%


49% CAGR 2016–2021

Global M2M Traffic GrowthM2M traffic will grow more than 7-fold from 2016 to 2021

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Middle East and Africa (52% CAGR)






Exabytes per Month


5.6%


19% CAGR 2016–2021

Global M2M Connections / IoT Growth by VerticalBy 2021, connected home largest, connected health fastest growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other (1% CAGR)

Energy (25% CAGR)

Mfg & Supply Chain (9% CAGR)

Retail (15% CAGR)

Connected Car (29% CAGR)

Connected Cities (29% CAGR)

Connected Health (30% CAGR)

Connected Work (15% CAGR)

Connected Home (18% CAGR)

Billions of M2M

Connections



Top Trends




IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends



“Cord-Cutting”


Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

IPv6 Capable Mobile

Devices

IPv6 Capable Fixed

Devices

3.4B

8.1B

1.6B

Global IPv6-Capable Devices/Connections By 2021, 61% of devices/connections will be IPv6-capable

8.4B

Number of Devices (Billions)


27% CAGR 2016–2021


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Middle East and Africa (MEA) (100%

CAGR)Latin America (LATAM) (61% CAGR)

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

(68% CAGR)Western Europe (WE) (67% CAGR)

North America (NA) (80% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (APAC) (73% CAGR)

Global IPv6 Traffic Growth / RegionsBy 2021, IPv6 will represent 37% of total Internet traffic

34.1%

Exabytes per Month

5.5

87


33.1%

15.3%6%5.3%6.2%

74% CAGR 2016–2021


Top Trends




IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends



“Cord-Cutting”


Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis


24% CAGR 2016–2021

Global IP Traffic by Application TypeBy 2021, video will account for 82% of global IP trafficGaming starts showing significant growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Gaming (1%,4%)

File Sharing (8%,3%)

Web/Data (18%,11%)

IP VOD (22%,14.5%)

Internet Video (51%, 67.4%)

Exabytes per Month




31% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Internet Video Traffic by TypeBy 2021, live video will increase 15-fold and reach 13% of Internet video traffic

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Video Surveillance (2%,3%)

Live Internet Video (3%,13%)

Long-Form Internet VoD (60%,57%)

Short-Form Internet VoD (34%, 26%)

Exabytes per Month





0.09 0.24

0.49

0.85

1.25

1.72

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Virtual and Augmented Reality TrafficBy 2021, VR/AR traffic will increase 20-fold, 1% of Entertainment Traffic

82% CAGR 2016–2021

Exabytes per

Month


26% CAGR 2016–2021

High Definition Content Impacts IP Video GrowthUHD IP video will account for 21% of global IP video traffic by 2021

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (2%, 21%)

High Def (HD) Video (47%,57%)

Standard Def (SD) Video (51%,22%)Exabytes per Month




14% CAGR 2016–2021

High Definition Content Impacts IP VOD GrowthUHD VOD will account for 30% of global IP VOD traffic by 2021

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ultra-High Def (UHD) VOD (1%, 30%)

High Def (HD) VOD (76%,66%)

Standard Def (SD) VOD (23%,4%)Exabytes per Month




Top Trends




IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends



“Cord-Cutting”


Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis


Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage

Average Traffic

per User

2016

24 GB per month

2021

57 GB per month

Future

200 GB per month

Average Traffic

per Household

63 GB per month 155 GB per month 500 GB per month



Internet Households Reshape Usage LimitsInternet households exceeding 1 TB doubled in 2016

1.9

3.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2015 2016


Terabyte

Households

(Millions)


Usage Limits: Fixed vs. MobileHistorically, mobile caps affected a larger percentage of users than fixedWith unlimited mobile plans, top-end user ratio is similar to fixed

North America

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific

Central & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Africa

1.9%

0.3%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

4.7%

0.5%

0.2%

0.7%

0.6%

0.1%

Latin America

COUNTRY

2015 2020


% Broadband HH

> 1 TB

% Mobile Users

> 20 GB

Global 0.5% 0.8%


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Pbps

Busy Hour Internet Traffic (CAGR 35%)

Average Internet Traffic (CAGR 26%)

Global Busy-Hour vs. Average Hour Internet TrafficBy 2021, busy Internet traffic will be 3X greater than average traffic (video driven)



26% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Content Delivery Network (CDN) TrafficCDNs will deliver 71 percent of Internet traffic by 2021

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Non-CDN Internet Traffic (48%,29%)

CDN Internet Traffic (52%, 71%)

Exabytes per Month




End-User Internet Traffic Moving Closer to the EdgeOver one-third of traffic will bypass core completely by 2021

Within Metro22% in 201635% by 2021

(100% cumulative)

Core – Regional20% by 201623% by 2021

(64% cumulative)

Core – Cross-Country58% in 201641% by 2021


10% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Enterprise SD-WAN TrafficSD-WAN traffic will grow at a CAGR of 44% compared to 5% for traditional WAN SD-WAN will increase 6x and will be 25% of WAN traffic by 2021

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

SD-WAN Traffic (6.4%,24.9%)

Traditional IP WAN Traffic (94%, 75.1%)

Exabytes per Month




Top Trends




IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends



“Cord-Cutting”


Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis


Global Video Users / SubscribersMobile video growing fastest, followed by online video

1.91.6

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Online Video (5.8% CAGR)

Digital TV HH (4.2% CAGR)

Mobile Video (14.8% CAGR)

Billions



Global Digital Media Adapters* GrowthBy 2021, DMAs will represent 16% of global Internet set-top boxes (STB)by 2021, DMAs will represent 34% of global Internet STB traffic

Digital Media

Adapters(M) 138.8

172.4

203.7

230.3 249.6

261.3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

4.3

6.3

8.7

11.1

13.414.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DMA Traffic (EB/Month)

* DMAs include devices such as Roku, Apple TV, Chromecast

14% CAGR 2016–2021

27% CAGR 2016–2021


Cord-Cutting Household Traffic Is 86% HigherA global cord-cutting household generates 117 GB per month in 2017, compared to 63 GB per month for an average household

63

117

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2016

Average Household

Cord-Cutting HouseholdGB per

Household per Month



Top Trends




IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends



“Cord-Cutting”


Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis


Global Wi-Fi Hotspot Coverage and Availability

Existing Growth Future

• Pay-as-you-go

• Free access promoting other services (Retail free Wi-Fi)

• Managed services (venues and outdoor)

• Cellular offload (user promoted)

• Added value for broadband subscription

• Advertising and sponsorship

• Cellular offload (carrier driven)

• Community Wi-Fi/ homespots

• Carrier-grade VoWiFi

• TV everywhere

• Large events

• Big data analytics

• Public transportation Wi-Fi

• Wi-Fi Capacity trading

• Transaction platform

• Internet of things

• Context awareness

• HetNet Wi-Fi + mobile

• Connected car (in-car Wi-Fi)

Back to Trends Menu

Total Public WLAN + Community Hotspots

2016 2021

94.0 M 541.6 M

Total Incremental Hotspots ?

Source: Maravedis, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021


42% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Public Wi-Fi HotspotsAsia Pacific leads with 246 Million (45%) Hotspots by 2021

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Middle East and Africa (MEA) (34% CAGR)






Millions of Hotspots

Source: Global Public Wi-Fi Hotspots Asia Pacific Leads with 246 Million (45%) Hotspots by 2021

23%

45%

4%

17%

9%

* Middle East and Africa represents 1% of global public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2021

94

542


802.11n

600 Mbps Max

Medium Resolution Video

802.11ac

3.6 Gbps Max

High Resolution Video

Wired Complement

802.11ax

10 Gbps Max

Dense IoT Deployment

DOCSIS 3.0

38 Mbps per channel

VDSL2

100 Mbps Max

Medium Resolution Video

DOCSIS 3.1

54 Mbps.

VDSL2-VPlus

300 Mbps Max

G.fast

150-1000 Mbps Max.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Future of Wired and Wireless Technologies

By 2021, 98.1% of BB CPE will be equipped with 802.11acFuture Wi-Fi Enables Virtualization, IoT, Speech Processing, Security, Data Analytics

Full Duplex

DOCSIS 3.1

10 Gbps symmetrical

Inflection point for DOCSIS 3.1 in 2019Future Wired Enables 4K, Immersive 360 video, VR, High Dynamic Range, High Frame Rate, 8K


24% CAGR 2016–2021

Global IP Traffic by Local Access TechnologyBy 2021, 63% of total IP traffic will be wireless*

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mobile (46% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (16% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (48% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (18% CAGR)

Exabytes per Month

* Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile


19.8%

25.7%

37.1%

17.4%


26% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Internet Traffic by Local Access TechnologyBy 2021, 73% of total Internet traffic will be wireless*

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mobile (46% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (18% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (48% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (18% CAGR)

Exabytes per Month

* Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile


23.4%

29.3%

26.9%

20.5%


Top Trends




IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends



“Cord-Cutting”


Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis


Global Average Fixed Broadband SpeedsDoubling in speeds from 2016–2021

Global

BY REGION

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Central and Eastern Europe

North America


27.5

33.9

9.3

30.2

29.2

32.9

7.8

53.0

63.7

20.5

53.6

45.5

74.2

17.1

Western Europe

GLOBAL

2016 2021


In Mbps


Global Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences

85% of all broadband

connections by 2021

Online Video

(HD movie download)

22 minutes

(UHD movie download)

2 hours


connections by 2021

Online Video

(HD movie download)

9 minutes


48 minutes


connections by 2021

Online Video

(HD movie download)

2 minutes


12 minutes

10 Mbps 25 Mbps 100 Mbps


28 8161751

100

167

500

HD Camera

IP Video

2 UHD Cameras

UHD Streaming

VR

UHD IP Video

8K Wall TV

HD VR

UHD VR

Video in the Home of Today and the FutureSignificant demand for video in the home of the future

Application requirements In Mbps

Today

Future

Today

Future


Global Average Wi-Fi SpeedsWi-Fi speeds double from 2016–2021

Global

BY REGION

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Central and Eastern Europe

North America


18.2

19.5

7.7

20.3

16.7

27.4

4.9

37.1

40.7

13.9

35.1

31.6

52.3

9.0

Western Europe

GLOBAL

2016 2021


In Mbps


Top Trends




IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends



“Cord-Cutting”


Wi-Fi Momentum

Accelerating Speeds

Security Analysis


Peak attack size increased 60% Y/Y.

DDoS attacks can represent up to 18% of a country’s total Internet traffic while they are occurring.

Average DDoS attack size increases at 22% which is relatively the same rate as Internet traffic at 29% Y/Y.

DDoS Attack Size and Traffic Increasing

Source: Arbor Networks, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021


20% CAGR 2016–2021

Number of DDoS Attacks Greater than 1 GbpsAttacks grew 172% in 2016, will increase 2.5-fold to 3.1 million by 2021 globally

1.3

1.6

2.0

2.3

2.7

3.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Millions


Technologies with the biggest security implications are publicclouds, big data and mobile applications, each of which have seen high adoption rates in recent years.

65%

63%

61%

60%

57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

Public-cloud

software

Big data

application

Mobile

business

applications

Hybrid

clouds

Source: Forbes Insight with BMC, 2017


33,488 Records Exposed per Breach

Source: 2016 Identity Theft Resource Center, 2016 EoY Report

Total Breaches: 1,093 Records Exposed: 36.6 Million

Highest in Business: 45.3% Highest in Healthcare: 43.6%


Enabling Authentication and Secure Internet Percentage of secure Internet servers to all web-Facing Servers

North America

24% CEE

46%

Western

Europe

40%

Latin

America

12%

MEA

11%Asia Pacific

17%

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index 2016-2021


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Documents

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) and VNI Service Adoption...Global Internet Growth and Trends Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021 Key Digital Transformers