1. 2012CenterforEconomicandPolicyResearch1611ConnecticutAvenue,NW,Suite400Washington,D.C.200092022935380www.cepr.net

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CEPR i ................................................................................................................................................................. 1 ................................................................................... 3 ............................................................................................................................................. 6 ................................................................................................................... 8 ......................................................................................................................................10 ...........................................................................................................................................11 ;........................................................................................................................15 .................................................................................................................................................................22This report was originally published in English and translated into Greek in February 2012 byChristina Laskaridis 2012 3. CEPR 1 130 , , 2010. , , . - , , . 2010-11 8,7% . , . , 6,9% - ( ) 2010. ( 2011) , . 2012 , 2013-2014. . - 15% , 22% 2017. , 2020 120% 138%. . , . , . : 245 , 170 . 160% 2020. , , . 4. CEPR 2 , , 2012 15,8% - . , 20 21 . , , 6,8% . 4%, , , 6%, . . , , 20,9% . 17% 2016, . 2013 , 14,5% 19,5%. 1994. , . 150.000 2015, 20% ( 32% 25), . . : , , . , , 2006. , . . , . . , 1998, . 2001 , ( 4,9% ), 63% . . , , . , , 5. CEPR 3 - - - . , . . 2010 (). - (), . , , , ., , . , . , - . . - 1 , 20112 , 2012 14,4% , 2007. 3 , 20 21 .4 , 15,8%. , ., . 1 - , 2010. , 2012, 6,9% . , 1 IMF (2011a).2 , , .3 IMF (2011a), . 37.4 Reinhart and Rogoff (2009). 6. CEPR 4 , . , , , 2. 2013 , 14,5% 19,5%. , 2011 19,2%. , , 20,9% . 1 : , , .. 7. CEPR 5 2 : , .. , , . , , . , PSI . , , , , .5, - 35 , 15,4% . 22%, , , 2017. , :5 IMF (2011a), . 11. 8. CEPR 6 2011 390 , 1,7 . , 50% 6. 70% , : , , 2013-14, . , , , . .7 , , / , 5% , . , , , ., - - .. (1998-2002) (1997-1998), - . . , , . , . , , . . , , , 5% , 6 IMF (2011a), . 9.7 IMF (2011a), . 34. 9. CEPR 7 , () . , , . 1, . , . 2011, , 4,1% , 1,9% , . 1 ( )20092010 2011 2012 201320142015 37,9 39,540,6 42,843,2 43,644,0 48,3 44,642,9 42,640,8 38,739,1 -10,4-5,1-2,20,2 2,44,9 5,0 5,35,5 6,84,9 6,36,4 6,1 -15,7 -10,6-9,0 -4,7-3,9 -1,5-1,0 -3,7 -1,7 -0,3-1,8 -2,10,4 -4,6 -4,1 -1,5-1,5 -1,21,6 0,92,41,2-0,3 -0,9-1,2 (( )232 228216 210212217 223 -1,9 -5,0 -2,80,72,3 3,1: 2010 2011 8,7% . - 1,3 . 2012, - - 2,8% . 8 . , , , . 2012 , . , . , , 8 IMF (2011a), . 15. 10. CEPR 8 , , , . , 2012 , . 2013 2014 , , , . 9 , . . , 20,9% . 2016 17%, , 7,7% . 10 . 3 . 2011 1994, 2008, . 150.000 2010-2015, 22% . : 12% , 3% (2008), 9% , ( .. ). 11 22%, 32% 25 . 880 . , . , , .129 IMF (2011a), . 23.10 , , 11 IMF (2011a), . 16.12 Du Caju et al. (2009). 11. CEPR 9 3 : Eurostat , . 13 , , , . 14 . TheLancet: 17% 2007 2009, 2010 25% 2009. 40% 2011 2010 [...] , , 2007 2009. 1513 IMF (2011a), . 9.14IMF (2011a), . 25.15 Kentikelenis et al. (2011). 12. CEPR 10 , 52% HIV 2010 2011. , . . , : , . , . 16 , . , , . , . , . , . , . , , 2010 , 2006, () 7,6% 2011 2006. , , . 2011 , 2,5%. . , . , , , 16 IMF (2011a), . 10 13. CEPR 11 . 17 , , , . 161% 120% 2020. 21 2012 , . , . , , . : (1) , , / ; (2) , ; 4 ( 2011) 2020. : 2011, , 2012. (161% ) 120% 2020, . , , . , . , . , .17 14. CEPR 12 4 : . 2011, 1% 0,5% 2012 2013. , 2,5% 2012. 1/3, 2/3. , 1,5 .: . PSI . 18 PSI , , . , ,., , , 120% 2020 138%.19 , 2011, , , 6,8% 18. IMF (2011a), . 7019 IMF (2011a), . 68 15. CEPR 13 6%. 20 , 2012 . , , , . 4, 129% 2020. , , , 2020 120% ., , . , 2012 . , 2,5%, 2012, 2/3 . , , . , , 2020 144% , 120% . , . 1. 6,8% 2011. , 100 , 4,9% 2012, 6% 2015. . 5 .. 4% . , . , . 21 , , , , .20 Hellenic Statistical Authority (2012)21 Johnston and Montecino (2011). 16. CEPR 14 5 .. 2011: , . IMF World Economic Outlook Eurostat. . , 130 . . , , 120% 2020., Reuters Financial Times . : 129% 2020 , , 160% 2020 , , .2222 Strupczewski (2012). 17. CEPR 15 Financial Times , , , : , 245 , 170 . , 50 , 136 2014 . , 2014 2,3% . 30 , 50 . , 50 , 30 2020 23 , , , , 100 , .; , . , , . , . 24 , , . , , . , . , 23 Spiegel (2012).24 , Mark Weisbrot, Why Greece Should Reject the Euro, The New York Times, May 9, 2011. 18. CEPR 16 : , . .25 . . , , , , . , . . , . , , . 2020, 33,6% , 42,8% 2007. , ( ), . . , , , . , , . , . , , . , , , . , . , . 26 25 Soros (2005) 26 IMF (2011a), . 33. 19. CEPR 17 , , , . , , , , ., . , $ 638 1% . . , , . , , . . , 2001. , 2002, , . . 5% 2002., . 63%, 90%. , 2005, . 2007 - . 6, ( ) ( ) . 100. , . . 2009, . , , . 2727 , 2007. Weisbrot et al (2011) . 20. CEPR 18 6 : (1996-2007) - (2005-2016): 1980 1997 (1,9%), 1980 2007 (2,1%): . , . . . , . , . , 12% 2002-2008.28 . , . , , , , . 29 ., . 28 Weisbrot et al. (2011).29 Frenkel and Rapetti (2007). 21. CEPR 19. , . , . , . . , , , . , , . : , . , ; ,30 , , . , . , , . , , . , . , 31 , .32 , , , 2002. . , , , .30 Weisbrot et al. (2011).31 Gulati and Buchheit (2010).32 Hellenic Ministry of Finance (2012) 22. CEPR 20 . : , , 4 , 4% 2002. / . . 2003 , - , . , . 33 2003, . , , 2001, 1998 2008., . 34 , , . , . . . , , , . , , 1997-98. . . , . , .33 Smith (2003).34 , , Levy-Yeyati Panizza (2011). 23. CEPR 21 , , . . , ., , . , , - - . . , . - . , , . , , . . 24. CEPR 22European Commission. 2011. Eurostat. . 2012.http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_databaseFrenkel, Roberto and Martn Rapetti. 2007. Argentinas Monetary and Exchange RatePolicies After the Convertibility Regime Collapse. Washington, DC: Center for Economicand Policy Research, April.http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/argentina_2007_04.pdfGulati, Mitu and Lee C. Buchheit. 2010. How to Restructure Greek Debt. Duke LawWorking Papers. No. 47.http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/working_papers/47/Hellenic Republic Ministry of Finance. 2012. PSI Launch Press Release. February 21.http://www.minfin.gr/portal/en/resource/contentObject/id/7ad6442f-1777-4d02-80fb-91191c606664Hellenic Statistical Authority. . 2012.http://www.statistics.gr/portal/page/portal/ESYEHellenic Statistical Authority. 2012. Quarterly National Accounts: 4th Quarter 2011 (FlashEstimates). Athens, Greece. February 14.http://www.statistics.gr/portal/page/portal/ESYE/BUCKET/A0704/PressReleases/A0704_SEL84_DT_QQ_04_2011_01_E_EN.pdfIMF (International Monetary Fund). 2011a. Greece: Fifth Review Under the Stand-ByArrangement, Rephasing and Request for Waivers of Non-observance of PerformanceCriteria; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the ExecutiveDirector for Greece.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11351.pdfIMF (International Monetary Fund). 2011b. Greece: Fourth Review Under the Stand-ByArrangement and Request for Modification and Waiver of Applicability of PerformanceCriteria.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11175.pdfIMF (International Monetary Fund). 2011c. Greece: Third Review Under the Stand-ByArrangementStaff Report; Informational Annex; Press Release on the Executive BoardDiscussion; Statement by the Staff Representative on Greece; and Statement by theExecutive Director for Greece.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr1168.pdfIMF (International Monetary Fund). 2011d. Greece: Second Review Under the Stand-ByArrangementStaff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; andStatement by the Executive Director for Greece.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr10372.pdf 25. CEPR 23IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2011e. Greece: First Review Under the Stand-ByArrangement.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr10286.pdfIMF (International Monetary Fund). 2011f. World Economic Outlook Database, September2011 Edition. Online Database. Accessed February 2012.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspxIMF (International Monetary Fund). 2011g. Portugal: Second Review Under the ExtendedArrangement. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11363.pdfIMF (International Monetary Fund). 2011g. Ireland: Fourth Review Under the ExtendedArrangement and Request for Rephasing of the Arrangement - Staff Report; Letter of Intent;Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies; Technical Memorandum ofUnderstanding; Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Understanding on Specific EconomicPolicy Conditionality (College of Commissioners); Staff Supplement; Press Release on theExecutive Board Discussion.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11356.pdfJohnston, Jake and Juan Antonio Montecino. 2011. Jamaica: Macroeconomic Policy, Debt,and the IMF. Washington, DC: Center for Economic and Policy Research, May.http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/jamaica-qr-2011-04.pdfKentikelenis, Alexander, Marina Karanikolo, Irene Papanicolas, Sanjay Basu, MartinMcKee, and David Stuckler. 2011. Health Effects of Financial Crisis: Omens of a GreekTragedy. The Lancet, Vol. 378, Issue 9801, pp. 1457-1458.http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2811%2961556-0/fulltext#fig1Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo and Ugo Panizza. 2011. The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults.Journal of Development Economics. Vol. 94, pp. 95-105.Philip Du Caju, Erwan Gautier, Daphne Momferatou, and Melanie Ward-Warmedinger.2008. Institutional Features of Wage Bargaining in 23 European Countries, The US andJapan. European Central Bank Working Paper Series. No. 974.http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp974.pdfReinhart, Carmen and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2009. The Aftermath of Financial Crises.National Bureau ofEconomic Research WorkingPaperNo.14656.http://www.nber.org/papers/w14656.Smith, Tony. 2003. Argentina Defaults on $3 Billion IMF Debt. The New York Times.September 10.http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/10/business/argentina-defaults-on-3-billion-imf-debt.htmlSoros, George. 2005. George Soros on Globalization. Public Affairs.Spiegel, Peter. 2012. Greek Debt Nightmare Laid Bare. Financial Times. February 21. 26. CEPR 24http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b5909e86-5c0f-11e1-841c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1n8Po1u5WStrupczewski, Jan. 2012. Factbox: Details of Greek Sustainability Report. Reuters. 20February. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/20/us-greece-debt-troika-report-idUSTRE81J1CE20120220Weisbrot, Mark, Rebecca Ray, Juan Montecino, and Sara Kozameh. 2011. The ArgentineSuccess Story and its Implications. Washington, DC: Center for Economic and PolicyResearch, October.http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/argentina-success-2011-10.pdf