Obama and Cameron:What the poll ‘tea leaves’ show
Julia Clark
Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI
Some quick fundamentals about politics in Britain
Source: Ipsos MORI
Electoral Arithmetic Core vote for Labour - 30% (tested 1983)
Core vote for Tories - 30% (tested 1997)
Core vote for Others - 20% (tested 1989)
Total 80%
Floating Voters = 20%
Marginal Constituencies = 20%
20% x 20% = 4% x c. 25 million = c. 1 million voters
Source: Ipsos MORI
10%
9%
10%
5%
66%
10% decide whether to vote - or not - on the final day (and 19% in the last week)
In the first week
Within the last week
Before the campaign beganAround the middle
Within the last 24 hours
Q When did you decide which party to vote for?
Base: Voted in the General Election (1,399) 18+, 7-11 April 2005 Source: MORI
84.0 82.576.7 78.8 77.1 75.8
72.078.7 76.0 75.3 77.7
71.5
59.3 61.3
39 37
72.772.872.7
1945 '50 '51 '55 '59 '64 '66 '70 '74Feb
'74Oct
'79 '83 '87 '92 '97 '01 '05
18-24s
General Election Turnout Since 1945
%
Source: Ipsos MORI
But WHY?
Where have all the voters gone?
Source: Ipsos MORI
61
59
59
60
60
-39
-40
-40
-40
-39
Not Interested in Politics??
June 1973
Q How interested would you say you are in politics?
% Very/fairly interested% Not particularly/at all interested
Base: c.2,000 British/UK adults 18+
Mar 1991
Apr 1997
Source: MORI/JRRT/Electoral Commission, Times, FT
May 2001
April 2005
What would make political parties more appealing?
Q Which two or three of the following changes to political parties would help to make political parties more appealing to you?
Making better use of internet/ information technology
Making constituency offices more inviting / interesting to visit
Working more with single-issue organisations
Acting more as social organisations
Allowing interested people to influence policy more
Leading more campaigns around local issues
Drawing party candidates from a wider cross-section of society
Taking the time to talk to people about their organisation and explaining their values
Parties would listen more to the public
Involving people more in local decision making
Source: Ipsos MORI/ Young FoundationBase: 973 British adults 15+, 31.8-7.9.06
Involve people locally, you say?
So: The Obama Effect
Source: www.pollingreport.com
Good ratings
Americans think world leaders respect Obama
Source: www.pollingreport.com
42%
14%
43%
Just 14% of Americans think America’s image has got worse under Obama
Worse
Better
Same
Unsure (1%)
Q Under Obama, do you think America's image in the rest of the world has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
Base: N=1,000 adults nationwide, March 26-29, 2009. Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll.
Obama is doing well…
Pew data indicates that between 2002-2008, favourable opinion of the US declined in 14 of 19 countries polled
Obama highly trusted on economy (71% [Gallup]) – compared to 46% trusting the Brown/Darling team
Americans’ public approval for Obama’s handling of foreign policy has gone from 54% in Feb to 61% in March (Gallup)
79% of Americans think people in other countries will have a more positive view of the US because of Obama (CNN/ORC)
So what can British politicians take away
from all this?
A quick overview of where things stand here
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan '9
7
Jun '9
7
Nov '9
7
Apr
'98
Sep '9
8
Jan '9
9
Jun '9
9
Nov '9
9
Apr
'00
Sep '0
0
Feb '0
1
Jul '
01
Dec '0
1
May '0
2
Oct '0
2
Mar
'03
Aug '0
3
Jan '0
4
Jun '0
4
Oct '0
4
Mar
'05
Aug '0
5
Jan '0
6
Jun '0
6
Nov '0
6
Apr
'07
Sep '0
7
Feb '0
8
Jul '
08
Dec '0
8
Index (get better minus get worse)
The economy will be the most important election issue for GE 2010
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-4
-29
-56
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
23%
20%27%
28%
1%
22%
27%21%
29%
1%
Fear of redundancy (amongst full-time workers)How concerned if at all would you say you are about the possibility of being made redundant or becoming unemployed over the next few months?
Very concerned
Don’t know
Not at all concerned
Base: 461 British adults in full-time work, 16th-18th January 2009
Fairly concerned
Not very concerned
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2009October 2008
Very concerned
Don’t know
Not at all concerned
Fairly concerned
Not very concerned
Base: 452 British adults in full-time work, 17th-19th October 2008
Total concerned = 43% Total concerned = 49%
6732
2523
1212111098
The economy, stupid…
Base: 995 British adults 18+, 19th – 24th February 2009
What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Unemployment
Economy
Crime/law and order
Inflation/prices
Education/Schools
Top mentions %
NHS
Race relations/immigration
Housing
Morality/Individual Behaviour
Change since Jan
-3
-2
-1
-1
+1
-1
+2
+2
Defence/Foreign Affairs/Terrorism
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
-2
+4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
Issues Facing Britain: Long Term Trends (current top 5)
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+
NHS
Crime/ Law & Order
Race/ immi-
gration
Economy
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Unemployment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
Issues Facing Britain: Economy vs. Unemployment vs. Inflation/Prices
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Howard becomes
Tory Leader
Cameron becomes
Tory Leader
Brown becomes
PM
Pound at 15- year high
against dollar Sub-prime mortgage
crisis in the US
Northern Rock
nationalised
Stock Market falls
Global Recession and Russian
Financial crisis
Highest score since 1992. Most important
issue for the first time
Inflation rate hits 16 year
peak
Inflation/ prices
Unemployment
Economy
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
Issues Facing Britain: NHS / Hospitals / Healthcare
Howard becomes
Tory Leader
Cameron becomes
Tory Leader
Brown Becomes
PM
General Election – “Battle of
Margaret’s shoulder”
London Bombs
Hewitt heckled at UNISON conference –
fears over NHS job cuts
Blair tells doctors “not enough” has been done for the NHS – allocates extra £20 billion. Report says
waiting lists have doubled under Labour
Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more nurses, 40 new hospitals and development of foundation trusts
as part of NHS plan
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Blair – “We have under funded the NHS for years and we are paying the price for it” – BBC NHS day
Lowest score since
December 1985
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
Issues Facing Britain: Defence / Foreign Affairs / International terrorism
Howard becomes
Tory Leader
Cameron becomes
Tory Leader
Brown becomes
PM
9/11
Foot and Mouth crisis
London Bombs
War in Iraq
General Election - extra £400 million
allocated for defence budget
War in Kosovo
Failed terror attacks in
London and Glasgow
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
Howard becomes
Tory Leader
Cameron becomes
Tory Leader
BrownBecomes
PM
9/11
Fuel Protests
Blair activates civil contingencies machinery to deal with spiralling
street crime
Prison overcrowding
reaches record levels
May day riots
Tory election pledge of 40,000 more police
Foreign prisoners scandal – Clarke is sacked
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Rhys Jones and Gary Newlove
murdered
Issues Facing Britain: Crime / Law & Order / Violence / Vandalism / ASB
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
Issues Facing Britain: Race Relations / Immigration / Immigrants
Howard becomes
Tory Leader
Cameron becomes
Tory Leader
Brown becomes
PM
9/11
Foreign prisoners
furoreRace riots in Burnley,
Oldham, and Bradford
Sangatte detention centre constantly in the news throughout
2002.
Anthony Walker
murdered in Liverpool
The Met publishes its first Race Equality Scheme under the terms of the legislative
response to the Stephen Lawrence Inquiry.
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
Issues Facing Britain: Education / Schools
London Bombs
Introduction of means-tested
tuition fees
Labour’s second term - pledge to improve failing
secondary schools
Fuel Protests
City academies introduced to combat entrenched failure in some urban schools Education and
Inspections Bill limits the power of LAs to open
new schools
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Howard becomes
Tory Leader
Cameron becomes
Tory Leader
Brown becomes
PM
Lowest score since Dec 1985
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0
5
10
15
20
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
Issues Facing Britain: Pollution / Environment
Cameron’s “Vote Blue, go Green”
campaign at 2006 local elections
9/11 London Bombs
Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic cloud reaches northern Spain
Wettest Autumn since records began – widespread flooding
across the UK
EC proposes carbon emission
cuts of 20% by 2020
Hurricane in Kensal Rise
Howard becomes
Tory Leader
Cameron becomes
Tory Leader
Brown becomes
PM
Stern report
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Voting intention
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-03
Ma
r-03
Ma
y-03
Jul-0
3
Se
p-0
3
No
v-03
Jan
-04
Ma
r-04
Ma
y-04
Jul-0
4
Se
p-0
4
No
v-04
Jan
-05
Ma
r-05
Ma
y-05
Jul-0
5
Se
p-0
5
No
v-05
Jan
-06
Ma
r-06
Ma
y-06
Jul-0
6
Se
p-0
6
No
v-06
Jan
-07
Ma
r-07
Ma
y-07
Jul-0
7
Se
p-0
7
No
v-07
Jan
-08
Ma
r-08
Ma
y-08
Jul-0
8
Se
p-0
8
No
v-08
Jan
-09
Ma
r-09
Voting Intentions Jan 03 – March 09 (all certain to vote)
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
(42%)
(32%)
(14%)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Howard elected (Nov 03)
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
-05
Fe
b-0
5M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-0
5Ju
l-05
Au
g-0
5S
ep
-05
Oct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-0
6F
eb
-06
Ma
r-06
Ap
r-06
Ma
y-06
Jun
-06
Jul-0
6A
ug
-06
Se
p-0
6O
ct-06
No
v-06
De
c-06
Jan
-07
Fe
b-0
7M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-0
7Ju
l-07
Au
g-0
7S
ep
-07
Oct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-0
8F
eb
-08
Ma
r-08
Ap
r-08
Ma
y-08
Jun
-08
Jul-0
8A
ug
-08
Se
p-0
8O
ct-08
No
v-08
De
c-08
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9M
ar-0
9Conservative vote share including margins of error
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical representations of voting intention
2005 General Election Cameron elected
(Dec 05)Brown as PM
(Jun 07)
42%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-05
Fe
b-0
5M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-0
5Ju
l-05
Au
g-0
5S
ep
-05
Oct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-0
6F
eb
-06
Ma
r-06
Ap
r-06
Ma
y-06
Jun
-06
Jul-0
6A
ug
-06
Se
p-0
6O
ct-06
No
v-06
De
c-06
Jan
-07
Fe
b-0
7M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-0
7Ju
l-07
Au
g-0
7S
ep
-07
Oct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-0
8F
eb
-08
Ma
r-08
Ap
r-08
Ma
y-08
Jun
-08
Jul-0
8A
ug
-08
Se
p-0
8O
ct-08
No
v-08
De
c-08
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9M
ar-0
9
Labour vote share including margins of error
2005 General Election
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
32%
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical representations of voting intention
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-05
Fe
b-0
5M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-0
5Ju
l-05
Au
g-0
5S
ep
-05
Oct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-0
6F
eb
-06
Ma
r-06
Ap
r-06
Ma
y-06
Jun
-06
Jul-0
6A
ug
-06
Se
p-0
6O
ct-06
No
v-06
De
c-06
Jan
-07
Fe
b-0
7M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-0
7Ju
l-07
Au
g-0
7S
ep
-07
Oct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-0
8F
eb
-08
Ma
r-08
Ap
r-08
Ma
y-08
Jun
-08
Jul-0
8A
ug
-08
Se
p-0
8O
ct-08
No
v-08
De
c-08
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9M
ar-0
9
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2005 General Election
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
Liberal Democrat vote share including margins of error
Clegg elected (Dec 07)
14%
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical representations of voting intention
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Leads and error margins
40
30
20
10
0
10
20
Jan2003
Jul2003
Jan2004
Jul2004
Jan2005
Jul2005
Jan2006
Jul2006
Jan2007
Jul2007
Jan2008
Jul2008
Jan2009
Co
nse
rvat
ive
lead
Lab
ou
r le
ad General Election ’05 (Labour majority of 66 seats)
Est. Labour lead required for a Labour overallmajority
Est. Cons’ve lead required for a Cons’ve overallmajority
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
BLACK WEDNESDAY
GE 1992
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
nNet satisfaction with new Prime Ministers: Thatcher/Major vs. Blair/Brown
MAJOR /
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
THATCHER /
NEW PM
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
GEN. ELEC SPECULATION
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
BANK ‘BAILOUT’ #1
BLAIR
BROWN
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Net
sat
isfi
ed
HAGUE
DUNCAN SMITH
HOWARD
What about Cameron? Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2009)
Number of months from becoming leader
CAMERON
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR
Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week of the month Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Note: methods change for Cameron; see below
Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy; the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Best party on economy
30%
29%
8%
25%
9%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,005 British adults 18+, 15th -17th August 2008
January 2009
Liberal Democrats
Labour
Conservatives
Other
Don’t know
38%
23%
5%
27%
7%
August 2008
Conservatives
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Other
Don’t know
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 16th -18th January 2009
Conservative lead = +15 Conservative lead = +1
Looking forward (the ‘tea leaves’)
We will have a Conservative government in 2010…
AND a new Prime Minister: PM David Cameron
Cameron will need to take lessons from Obama (change of govt, unstable economy, int’l conflicts)
Election 2010: Role of new media and blogs – how far can Cameron’s team model themselves on the Blue State people?
THANK YOU
QUESTIONS?