Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.
19th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum
“Let the Good Times Roll
Buy It…Build It…or Rehab It”Tampa Westshore Marriott Hotel
November 20th , 2013Sponsored by:
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2008 2009 2010Oct. 2011 Aug. 2012 Aug. 2013
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
OCCUPANCY TRENDS
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL PRICING TRENDS
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
2013 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT
UC/Leasing Planned/Proposed
2012 2013 2012 – 2013 2013 – 2014
MARKET Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units
Hills 11 3,333 13 2,829 2 3,968 12 3,417
Pinellas 3 639 12 2,172 11 2,998 9 2,404
Pasco 2 558 4 856 7 2,403 5 1,674
Polk 0 0 0 0 1 240 0 0
Manatee 1 272 2 567 7 1,977 3 1,169
Sarasota 0 0 1 326 4 998 2 670
Bay Area 17 4,802 32 6,750 32 12,584 31 9,334
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
HILLSBOROUGH PIPELINE
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
PINELLAS PIPELINE
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
PASCO PIPELINE
1 2
3 4 1
3
2
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
MANATEE/SARASOTA PIPELINE
1
3
2
2 2
1
3
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
NEW DYNAMICS OF THE METHODOLOGIES
OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND
SUPPLY SUPPLY REMAINS UNBALANCED COMPARED TO DEMAND – LIMITED NEW CONSTRUCTION PICKING UP - CONTINUED SHIFT FROM OWNERSHIP TO RENTAL HOUSING FOR LIFESTYLE & CONSUMER CHOICE – BAY AREA NEEDING 3K TO 4K PER YEAR
INCOMES ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS – RENTING MORE AFFORD THAN OWNERSHIP
CONSUMERS ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – INCOME DRIVEN CHOICES – - BETTER LOCATIONS – LESS COMMUTING – URBAN/SUBURBAN – LIFESTYLE CHOICES
THEORY METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, & JOB GROWTH NOW OUT,. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY
CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE & SHIFTING CONSUMER CHOICES.
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
BAY AREA MULTIFAMILY TRENDSHIL SUBURBAN LAND OPPS IN BRANDON, WESTCHASE, WESTSHORE & DOWNTOWN ACTIVE NEW CONS WESTSHORE. BRANDON & WESTSHORE & \DOWNTOWN – COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW
PIN CONS IN GATEWAY, CARRILON & URBAN ST PETE – MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW - URBAN & URBAN/SUBURBAN MOST ACTIVE
PAS ONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s – OPP IN MID COUNTY & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW, AS LAND DIMINISHES MOVEMENT NORTH
POL LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOWER OCC & FINANCING DIFFICULTIES
MAN LAND AVAIL & DEMAND SUPPORTS FUTURE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION & PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN THE FUTURE – CONS ACTIVITY IN LWR & I-75 AT THIS TIME – MARKET RECOVERY STRONG
SAR NEW CONST FINALLY RETURNING DWNTWN & I-75 CORRIDOR – MARKET NOW IN RECOVERY – LAND EXPENSIVE – OCC & RENT GROWTH VERY STRONG
GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST RETURNING STRONGLY – DEMAND IS STILL CONTINUING TO GROW DUE TO HOUSING SHIFTS & ECONOMIC TIMES - OCC RECOVERY TO 95%-97% & ANNUAL RENTAL REVUEW GROWTH HAPPENING NOW – REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF FLORIDA - GOOD OPPORTUNITIES FOR 24-48 MONTHS – MOSTLY URBAN & STRONG SUBURBAN.
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
Sponsored by:
19th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum
Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.