Opportunity analysisand theory of change
- introduction -
Knowledge
Know-how
Motivation
Behavior
Market
(society)
The approach of the “traditional” entrepreneur
The approach of the “social” entrepreneur
Knowledge
Know-how
Passion
Behavior
Vision
Society
(needs)
The approach of the “social” entrepreneur
The motivation of a social enterprise
Operations oriented for a social change
Resourcesand infrastructure
Financial products
Investments and working capital
Social impact
Societal value
Inspired from: ESSEC Chaire entrepreneuriat social
Social enterprise
Corporate responsibility
Strategy
Business model
Gouvernance
Values
ISO 26000
Principles of action
Looking at the many faces of an organization
Vision
Relations
Mission
In a systemic approach, the faces of the organization are a superposition of models
Val
ues
Val
ues
Permanent model«mission»
Relations model«management»
Dynamic model«vision»
Coherence axis «the values»
And we can design them with canvas !
How do we link all that to the TOC ?
Situation analysis
Where?
With whom?
Why?
Verifiable ?
Who?
With what? What?
By what ?
Our values
But how to begin an opportunity analysis?
The truth is out there !
La véritéest ailleurs !
Where?Rich
picture &
PESTEL
So, lets start with the context !
Rich picture of the context The rules are very simple!
Where?
PESTEL: in which context, which domain,who influences, with how much intensity?
Political
Economic
SocialTechnological Technological
EnvironmentalEnvironmental
Legal Legal
Don’t forget: Your stakeholders also influences your organization!
Publicsector
Politics
FundersSuppliers
Concurrents
SocietyCustomers
Directbenefi-ciaries Medias
Press
Social
networks
Committee
Members
Volunteers
Direction
Staff
Partners
Prescribers
Opinionmakers
Our values
Its your turn!• Group in pairs of organizations• Take 10 minutes to each design your rich picture and 5
minutes to check some relevant points in the PESTEL factors examples sheet
• Twice 10 minutes to explain your results to the other organization
• 10 minutes to debrief the difficulties
Why and for whom?
Short termoutputs
Specificoutcomes
Globalimpacts
• “In the customer shoes”• Problem tree• Goals/objectives tree
Tools
Society
Directs & indirectcustomers
Beneficiaries
Consequences
Causes
Central problem
Our values
Putting yourself in the "customer shoes“ to understand the problem!
Thinks and feels
Sees
Speaks
Listens
Does
Has needs
BeingDoing
Why? – Problems tree
Consequences
Causes
Central problem
Our values
Why – problems tree
• We start with a central problem
• We go down listing the causes:
– Asking why?… why?… why? (like a small child)
• We go up, listing the consequences:
– Telling so what?… so what?… and so what?(like a teenager)
The shea butter production is low and
the quality is poor
Causes
Consequences
Problems tree example: shea butter production
The shea butter production is low and
the quality is poor
There are long translating by foot
There are heat and high hazards
(snake bites)
The nuts transportation is
heavy
The operations are essentially
manual
The operations are done in a
painful context
There are bag hygiene
procedures
The packaging is improper
The rural exodus is a fact
The quality is low and inconstant
The operations are slow
The shea nutspicking is difficult
Causes
Central problem
There are few local opportunities
The selling price is low and fluctuates
There are no international opportunities
Consequences
Problems tree example: shea butter production
Backfeed!(vicious circle)
Why and for whom?
Society
Directs & indirectcustomers
Beneficiaries
Our values
For whom?
Who: what are the target audiences?
Our values
• Who are the direct beneficiaries?• Who are the indirect beneficiaries?• Who are the customers?
• How many are they• What is the market size?
Why – transformation in objectives tree
• We modify the problem tree transforming the negative sentences into positive sentences (objectives)
• We go down, looking for drivers (for this to happen, we need…)
• We go up doing the same(if we reach this situation, it’s possible that this happens…)
The shea butter production increased and the quality is high
Drivers
Impacts
Objectives tree example: shea butter production
The shea butter production is low and
the quality is poor
There are long translating by foot
There are heat and high hazards
(snake bites)
The nuts transportation is
heavy
The operations are essentially
manual
The operations are done in a
painful context
There are bag hygiene
procedures
The packaging is improper
The rural exodus is a fact
The quality is low and inconstant
The operations are slow
The shea nutspicking is difficult
There are few local opportunities
The selling price is low and fluctuates
There are no international opportunities
Translations facilities exist
It’s less dangerous
(snakes bites)
The nuts transportation is
easy
The operations are partially mechanized
The operations are done in a better context
The hygiene procedures are
respected
The packaging is adequate
Big goalThere are better living conditions
The quality is good and
standardized
The operations are much more
faster
The shea nuts picking is easier
Immediate results
The shea butter production increased and the quality is
highShort term outputs
The local market is interested
The selling price is correct
and is stable
Potential international
opportunities existLong term outcomes
Its your turn!• Group in pairs of organizations• Take around 15 + 10 minutes to each create the
problem tree for which your organization exists and then transform it into an objectives tree
• Twice 10 minutes to explain your results to the other organization
• 10 minutes to debrief the difficulties
Interventionarea
No interventionzone
What’s next? – Intervention strategy
Break time !
The link between TOC and the objective tree
Context: Where is our organization is working?
Issue: What is the key issue we are facing?
Domain: In what sector/domain do we work?
EXERCISE: Your situation analysis and theory of change
Big Goal
Short term outputs
Long-term outcomes
What do we achieve in the short-term through the activities, products and services we produce?Outputs are largely within our organization’s control
What are the long term outcomes, that will help us reach our big goal?These are indirectly caused by our work, not completely within our control.
What do we want the world to look like? What is the key goal we are trying to achieve?
Values and principles: What are the values and principles that will guide my activities?
Situ
ation
an
alys
isTh
eory
of C
hang
eCo
re
valu
es
Verifiable – How to measure progress through KPI’s
Our values
Short termoutputs
Long term outcomes
Big goal
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