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Opportunity analysis and theory of change - introduction -

Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

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This is the presentation and exercices that were used during a workshop for the first 2014 seminar of the Ashoka's Impact program in Switzerland, given for the third consecutive year. The work shop is about opportunity analysis for social entrepreneurs, integrated with Dalberg's Theory of Change. Rich picture, PESTEL analysis, Problem and objective trees, all around a Social Business Model canvas.

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Page 1: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Opportunity analysisand theory of change

- introduction -

Page 2: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Knowledge

Know-how

Motivation

Behavior

 

Market

(society)

The approach of the “traditional” entrepreneur

Page 3: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

The approach of the “social” entrepreneur

Knowledge

Know-how

Passion

Behavior

Vision

 

Society

(needs)

Page 4: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

The approach of the “social” entrepreneur

Page 5: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

The motivation of a social enterprise

Operations oriented for a social change

Resourcesand infrastructure

Financial products

Investments and working capital

Social impact

Societal value

Inspired from: ESSEC Chaire entrepreneuriat social

Social enterprise

Page 6: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Corporate responsibility

Strategy

Business model

Gouvernance

Values

ISO 26000

Principles of action

Looking at the many faces of an organization

Vision

Relations

Mission

Page 7: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

In a systemic approach, the faces of the organization are a superposition of models

Val

ues

Val

ues

Permanent model«mission»

Relations model«management»

Dynamic model«vision»

Coherence axis «the values»

And we can design them with canvas !

Page 8: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

How do we link all that to the TOC ?

Situation analysis

Page 9: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
Page 10: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Claude Michaud

Opportunityor situation

[email protected]

Fribourg May 2014

Page 11: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Where?

With whom?

Why?

Verifiable ?

Who?

With what? What?

By what ?

Our values

But how to begin an opportunity analysis?

Page 12: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

The truth is out there !

La véritéest ailleurs !

Page 13: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Where?Rich

picture &

PESTEL

So, lets start with the context !

Page 14: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Rich picture of the context The rules are very simple!

Where?

Page 15: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

PESTEL: in which context, which domain,who influences, with how much intensity?

Political

Economic

SocialTechnological Technological

EnvironmentalEnvironmental

Legal Legal

Page 16: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Don’t forget: Your stakeholders also influences your organization!

Publicsector

Politics

FundersSuppliers

Concurrents

SocietyCustomers

Directbenefi-ciaries Medias

Press

Social

networks

Committee

Members

Volunteers

Direction

Staff

Partners

Prescribers

Opinionmakers

Our values

Page 17: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Its your turn!• Group in pairs of organizations• Take 10 minutes to each design your rich picture and 5

minutes to check some relevant points in the PESTEL factors examples sheet

• Twice 10 minutes to explain your results to the other organization

• 10 minutes to debrief the difficulties

Page 18: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Why and for whom?

Short termoutputs

Specificoutcomes

Globalimpacts

• “In the customer shoes”• Problem tree• Goals/objectives tree

Tools

Society

Directs & indirectcustomers

Beneficiaries

Consequences

Causes

Central problem

Our values

Page 19: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Putting yourself in the "customer shoes“ to understand the problem!

Thinks and feels

Sees

Speaks

Listens

Does

Has needs

BeingDoing

Page 20: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Why? – Problems tree

Consequences

Causes

Central problem

Our values

Page 21: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Why – problems tree

• We start with a central problem

• We go down listing the causes:

– Asking why?… why?… why? (like a small child)

• We go up, listing the consequences:

– Telling so what?… so what?… and so what?(like a teenager)

The shea butter production is low and

the quality is poor

Causes

Consequences

Page 22: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Problems tree example: shea butter production

The shea butter production is low and

the quality is poor

There are long translating by foot

There are heat and high hazards

(snake bites)

The nuts transportation is

heavy

The operations are essentially

manual

The operations are done in a

painful context

There are bag hygiene

procedures

The packaging is improper

The rural exodus is a fact

The quality is low and inconstant

The operations are slow

The shea nutspicking is difficult

Causes

Central problem

There are few local opportunities

The selling price is low and fluctuates

There are no international opportunities

Consequences

Page 23: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Problems tree example: shea butter production

Backfeed!(vicious circle)

Page 24: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Why and for whom?

Society

Directs & indirectcustomers

Beneficiaries

Our values

Page 25: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

For whom?

Page 26: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Who: what are the target audiences?

Our values

• Who are the direct beneficiaries?• Who are the indirect beneficiaries?• Who are the customers?

• How many are they• What is the market size?

Page 27: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Why – transformation in objectives tree

• We modify the problem tree transforming the negative sentences into positive sentences (objectives)

• We go down, looking for drivers (for this to happen, we need…)

• We go up doing the same(if we reach this situation, it’s possible that this happens…)

The shea butter production increased and the quality is high

Drivers

Impacts

Page 28: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Objectives tree example: shea butter production

The shea butter production is low and

the quality is poor

There are long translating by foot

There are heat and high hazards

(snake bites)

The nuts transportation is

heavy

The operations are essentially

manual

The operations are done in a

painful context

There are bag hygiene

procedures

The packaging is improper

The rural exodus is a fact

The quality is low and inconstant

The operations are slow

The shea nutspicking is difficult

There are few local opportunities

The selling price is low and fluctuates

There are no international opportunities

Translations facilities exist

It’s less dangerous

(snakes bites)

The nuts transportation is

easy

The operations are partially mechanized

The operations are done in a better context

The hygiene procedures are

respected

The packaging is adequate

Big goalThere are better living conditions

The quality is good and

standardized

The operations are much more

faster

The shea nuts picking is easier

Immediate results

The shea butter production increased and the quality is

highShort term outputs

The local market is interested

The selling price is correct

and is stable

Potential international

opportunities existLong term outcomes

Page 29: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Its your turn!• Group in pairs of organizations• Take around 15 + 10 minutes to each create the

problem tree for which your organization exists and then transform it into an objectives tree

• Twice 10 minutes to explain your results to the other organization

• 10 minutes to debrief the difficulties

Page 30: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Interventionarea

No interventionzone

What’s next? – Intervention strategy

Page 31: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Break time !

Page 32: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

The link between TOC and the objective tree

Page 33: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Context: Where is our organization is working?

Issue: What is the key issue we are facing?

Domain: In what sector/domain do we work?

EXERCISE: Your situation analysis and theory of change

Big Goal

Short term outputs

Long-term outcomes

What do we achieve in the short-term through the activities, products and services we produce?Outputs are largely within our organization’s control

What are the long term outcomes, that will help us reach our big goal?These are indirectly caused by our work, not completely within our control.

What do we want the world to look like? What is the key goal we are trying to achieve?

Values and principles: What are the values and principles that will guide my activities?

Situ

ation

an

alys

isTh

eory

of C

hang

eCo

re

valu

es

Page 34: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
Page 35: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Verifiable – How to measure progress through KPI’s

Our values

Short termoutputs

Long term outcomes

Big goal

Page 36: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
Page 37: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

ADVERTISING MINUTE: TOOLS AT WWW.SOCIALBUSINESSMODELS.CH

Page 38: Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

Thanks for your attention

www.socialbusinessmodels.chwww.dalberg.com