1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
March 2016Focus on: Main Car Insurance & Pharmacy Brands
© Amárach Research
2Economic Recovery Index
Turning Point?
It’s nearly seven years since we started
tracking the Economic Recovery Index and
at moment it remains high but off its peak.
This month we’ve focused on the attitudes
and intentions of customers of Ireland’s top
two car insurance and pharmacy brands,
and we introduce a new section in which we
profile customers of each provider on key
measures such as NPS, switching intentions
& spend.
The recent weakening in the ERI possibly
points to wider vulnerabilities in the
consumer economy – we’ll know fairly
quickly if it’s a wobble or a turning point.
3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to March 2016.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 18th to 24th March 2016 inclusive.
See how bad it was six years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-march-2010
Top Two Car Insurance
& Pharmacy Brands
Customer Profile
5Economic Recovery Index
Profile of Customers by:
Main Car Insurance/Pharmacy Brands
Source: PlanR Database, March 2016
March 2016All Car
InsurersAviva Axa
All
Pharma
-cies
BootsSam
McCauley
Sample 837 154 127 907 301 56
Average spend
€ per year (insurance)
€ per month (pharma)€543 €485 €700 €38 €33 €37
Net Promoter Score -17 -12 -18 4 6 -4
% likely to switch main
brand in next 6 months26% 27% 22% 15% 20% 26%
% ever recommended their
main brand48% 46% 51% 55% 59% 54%
Economic Recovery Index - 42.9 41.2 - 41.4 43.2
Economic Recovery Index
7Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has levelled off after reaching its highest level ever at the start of 2016:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, March 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Ap
r '0
9
July
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'10
Mar
May Ju
ly
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'11
Mar
May Ju
ly
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'12
Mar
May Ju
ly
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'13
Mar
May
July
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'14
Mar
May
July
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'15
Mar
May
July
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'16
Mar
The ERI has not returned to its January 2016 peak
8Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Mar-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.5
Mar-11 48 30 20 2 0 19.2
Mar-12 43 29 24 4 0 22.3
Mar-13 41 29 25 5 0 24.0
Mar-14 19 34 36 10 1 34.7
Mar-15 16 30 36 17 1 39.5
Feb-16 12 28 35 21 4 43.4
Mar-16 13 30 35 20 2 42.2
Nevertheless the ERI remains above the 40 level
Consumer Impact
10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Mar-10 42 43 54 55
Mar-11 25 36 48 47
Mar-12 30 40 50 48
Mar-13 30 40 44 47
Mar-14 37 40 49 45
Mar-15 40 40 48 40
Feb-16 41 44 55 46
Mar-16 37 44 52 44
Feeling ‘financially comfortable’ remains flat
11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Mar-10 18 25 61 30
Mar-11 13 23 58 23
Mar-12 18 29 55 24
Mar-13 19 27 53 25
Mar-14 23 24 58 26
Mar-15 26 27 51 24
Feb-16 30 26 56 26
Mar-16 28 25 55 26
Spending sentiment has weakened in recent months
Mood of the Nation
13Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2016
Source: Amárach Research, March 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
Ju
n
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
14Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2016
Source: Amárach Research, March 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr
'09
Ju
n
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
Amárach Outlook
16Economic Recovery Index
2016 Beginning
Q1 2016 has got off to a good start as
measured by our Economic Recovery Index.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress
into 2016 – and we’ll keep you posted about
Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.
For more on the ERI see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
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