2020GLOBAL DIGITALAD TRENDS
Innovation is a constant force driving the evolution of the digital media ecosystem. Digital channels are expected to provide nearly all incremental spend flowing into global ad budgets through 2020, and programmatic will account for most of that growth. Publishers and media buyers must understand the nuances and key trends impacting the market in order to capitalize on the vast opportunities available.
In such a fast-evolving industry, reliable data is the foundation of good business decisions. This is a compilation of the most significant market developments in the programmatic ecosystem to inform your 2020 strategies. This guide includes global advertising forecasts, growth trends for emerging and evolving formats, trends in header bidding, private marketplaces, and more!
T A B L E O F C O N T E N T
US DIGITAL & PROGRAMMATIC MARKET 2
GLOBAL DIGITAL & PROGRAMMATIC MARKET 11
MOBILE ADVERTISING 19
VIDEO ADVERTISING 25
PRIVATE MARKETPLACES 34
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US DIGITAL & PROGRAMMATIC MARKET
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PROJECTED AD REVENUE GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES, BY MEDIA TYPE
Digital media will continue to drive a significant amount of advertising growth in 2020. The Summer Olympics and US Presidential elections in 2020 will bring incremental advertising revenue and drive local television spending.
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-3.3
% -0.4
%
-17.
9%
11.8
%
-14.
8%
-16.
3%
-2.6
%
-4.4
%
3.6%
3.0%
NAT
ION
AL T
V(I
NC.
CE)
LOCA
L TV
(IN
C. C
E)
PRIN
T
RADI
O
OUT
OF H
OME
20202019
Source: Magna Global
13.2
%
9.5%
DIGI
TAL
PROJECTED US DIGITAL AD SPEND
For the first time, US digital ad spending surpassed traditional media spending in 2019. Digital is projected to reach over two-thirds of total media spending by 2023.
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Source: eMarketer
% of total media ad spendDigital ad spend
$201.8
$187.8
$172.3
$151.3
$129.3
54.2%58.5% 62.2% 64.7% 66.7%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Bill
ions $200
$150
$100
$50
$0
PROJECTED US DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPEND
The share of digital spend allocated to display advertising is expected to remain flat over the next four years. However, as digital advertising as a whole rises, display ad spend is projected to grow 59% between 2019 and 2023.
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Source: eMarketer
% of total digital ad spendDigital display ad spend
$108.9$101.1
$92.2
$80.6
$68.6
53.1% 53.2% 53.5% 53.8% 54.0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Bill
ions
$100
$80
$60
$40
$0
$120
$20
PROJECTED SHARE OF US DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPEND, BY PURCHASE METHOD
The benefits of automation drives nearly all digital display ads through programmatic advertising. Only a sliver of ad buys are sold directly and manually.
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N O N-P R O G R A M M A T I C 202015.0%
P R O G R A M M A T I C 202085.0%
201916.5%
201983.5%
Source: eMarketer
PROJECTED SHARE OF US REAL-TIME BIDDING (RTB) AD SPENDING
Thanks to continued brand safety and ad quality issues, buyers and sellers are directing more dollars to private marketplaces (PMP) in the US. Private marketplaces will overtake open exchange ad spending for the first time in 2020.
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Source: eMarketer
O P E NE X C H A N G E 202049%
P M P 202051%
2 0 2 0 G L O B A L D I G I TA L A D T R E N D S / 7© 2 0 1 9 P U B M AT I C , I N C . A L L R I G H T S R E S E R V E D
PROJECTED SHARE OF US PROGRAMMATIC DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPEND, BY DEVICE
Mobile ad spending will represent the majority of programmatic transactions in the US come 2020. While the share of desktop ad spending declines, connected TV is expected to grow and capture almost 7% of the market.
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Source: eMarketer
D E S K T O P 9.5%
M O B I L E 83.3%
C O N N E C T E D T V7.2%
US PROGRAMMATIC VIDEO AD SPENDING, BY DEVICE
Half of all programmatic ad dollars in the US will come from video by 2021, with mobile accounting for three-quarters of the spending.
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Source: eMarketer
2018 2019 2020 20212017
70.9%
73.2%
74.4%
67.4%
75.1%
25.3% 19.6% 14.4% 11.2% 9.0%
$16.2
$20.7
$27.2
$33.4
$39.4
15.9%14.3%12.5%9.5%7.3%
Bill
ions
$20
$10
$30
$40
$0Connected TV
Desktop/Laptop
Mobile
Video ad spend
BUYERS’ SUPPLY PATH OPTIMIZATION PLANS IN 2020
Transparency and efficiency have now become key considerations for marketers. Most US buyers are either actively implementing supply path optimization (SPO) or planning to start within the next year.
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Source: Digiday/PubMatic
N O P L A N S T O I M P L E M E N T*27%
A C T I V E LYI M P L E M E N T I N G45%
N O T A C T I V E LY I M P L E M E N T I N G B U T P L A N T O*28%
*within the next 12 months
GLOBAL DIGITAL & PROGRAMMATIC MARKET
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Digital display ads, including video, is the fastest growing ad format. It will account for over a quarter of total media ad spending in 2021, up from a fifth in 2018. Digital as a whole will contribute to half of total media ad spending worldwide.
PROJECTED TOTAL MEDIA AD SPENDING SHARE WORLDWIDE, BY MEDIA, 2018 AND 2021
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Internet Display
Internet Classified
Outdoor
Source: Zenith
Radio
Newspaper
Television
Internet Paid Search
Cinema
Magazines
2018 2021
31.9%28.5%
17.3%18.8%
8.1%6.2%
26.7%21.3%
6.4%6.5%
5.5%5.9%
3.1%4.4%
3.9%3.7%
0.7%0.9%
PROJECTED WORLDWIDE DIGITAL AD SPEND
Global digital ad spend growth rates remain strong. By 2020, digital advertising will represent that majority of total media ad spend worldwide
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Source: eMarketer
% of total media ad spendDigital ad spending (billions)
$517.5
$435.8
$385.0
$333.3
50.1%53.6%
56.6%58.8%
60.5%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Bill
ions
$500
$400
$200
$100
$0
$300
$600
$479.2
TOP 5 DIGITAL AD SPEND MARKETS WORLDWIDE
Digital ad spending in China and the US are expected to grow faster than the global average of 16% between 2019 and 2020—expanding their lead as the largest ad markets in the world
$ billions and % YOY change
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+9%YOY C H A N G E
Source: eMarketer
$151.3
$129.3
US
Bill
ions
$120
$80
$60
$0
$100
2019 2020
$94.6
$79.8
CHINA
$21.6$19.6
UK
$14.2$13.4
JAPAN
$9.4$8.6
GERMANY
$40
$20
+17%YOY C H A N G E
+19%YOY C H A N G E
+10%YOY C H A N G E +6%
YOY C H A N G E
$140
MAJOR DIGITAL AD SPEND MARKETS WORLDWIDE
India is the fastest-growing digital advertising market in the world, followed by Russia. Both are home to large populations of increasingly digital and mobile users.
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$9
$ billions and % YOY change
Bill
ions
$8
$4
$0
$7
$2
$1
$6
$5
$3
+12.
5%
AUST
RALI
A+7
.5%
+11.
7%
+13.
0%
FRAN
CE
+7.5
%
RUSS
IA+2
2.5%
ITAL
Y+1
1.5%
BRAZ
IL
+11.
6%NE
THER
LAND
S
+9.8
%
SWED
EN
+13.
6%
SPAI
N
+24.
0%
+10.
4%
SWIT
ZERL
AND
+12.
0%M
EXIC
O
+8.5
%
DENM
ARK
+8.2
%
INDI
A
NORW
AY
2019 2020
CANA
DA
SOUT
H KO
REA
Source: eMarketer
PROJECTED PROGRAMMATIC AD SPEND WORLDWIDE
Programmatic transactions will represent more than two-thirds of digital display ad spend around the globe in 2020.
$ billions and % of digital display ad spend
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Source: Zenith
% of digital display ad spendProgrammatic ad spend
$42.9
$19.9
$8.6$3.7
37%
10%
20%
44%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bill
ions $100
$80
$40
$20
$0
$60
51%
$56.5
2017
57%
$70.2
2018
62%
2019
65%
$98.2
2020
68%
$83.8
$30.6
TOP 5 PROGRAMMATIC* DIGITAL AD SPEND MARKETS WORLDWIDE
Double-digit YOY growth rates remain the norm among the largest programmatic advertising markets in the world. China (+19%), Japan (+18%) stand out, however, highlighting revenue growth opportunities for APAC publishers whom are prepared to offer ad inventory through automation next year.
$ billions and % YOY change
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$22.3
$19.5
US
Bill
ions
$20
$16
$12
$0
2019 2020
$8.3$6.9
CHINA
$3.8$3.3
UK
$3.4$2.8
JAPAN$1.7$1.4
GERMANY
$8
$4
+14%YOY C H A N G E
+19%YOY C H A N G E
+15%YOY C H A N G E
+18%YOY C H A N G E +17%
YOY C H A N G E
Source: Magna Global; PubMatic calculations*excludes search and social media
$25
MAJOR PROGRAMMATIC* DIGITAL AD SPEND MARKETS WORLDWIDE
Indonesia, India and Brazil will be the fastest-growing programmatic digital ad markets in 2020. Brazil will become the seventh largest programmatic market to reach a billion-dollar valuation next year.
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$ millions and % YOY change
$1,400
$800
$0
$400
$200
$1,200
$1,000
$600
+20%
AUST
RALI
A
+38%
BRAZ
IL
+18%
FRAN
CE
+9%
ITAL
Y
+11%
NETH
ERLA
NDS
+21%
SPAI
N
+8%
CANA
DA
+48%
INDI
A
+54%
INDO
NESI
A
+18%
MEX
ICO
+12%
SWED
EN
+29%
+36%
HONG
KON
G SA
R
+29%
ARGE
NTIN
A
+9%
KORE
A
NORW
AY
2019 2020Source: Magna Global; PubMatic calculations*excludes search and social media
Mill
ions $1,600
MOBILE ADVERTISING
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PROJECTED MOBILE AD SPEND WORLDWIDE
Mobile advertising surpassed $200 billion worldwide in 2019. It is expected reach $400 billion by 2023, at which point mobile is projected to represent 80% of global digital ad spend.
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$430
Source: eMarketer
% of digital ad spendMobile ad spend
$401.8
$368.0
$330.4
$286.5
$241.0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Bill
ions
$380
$280
$230
$180
$330
73.1%
75.9%
77.9%
79.2%80.2%
TOP 5 MOBILE AD SPEND MARKETS WORLDWIDE
The top 5 markets account for 85% of the worldwide mobile ad spending. The US will expand most in absolute terms, adding more than half of the incremental spending between 2019 and 2020. China is expected to grow the fastest among the five largest mobile advertising markets.
$ billions and % YOY change
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$120.4
$99.2
US
Bill
ions $120
$60
$30
$0
$90
2019 2020
$72.2
$61.4
CHINA
$15.4$13.7
UK
$11.3$10.1
JAPAN
$6.2$5.4
GERMANY
+22%YOY C H A N G E
+19%YOY C H A N G E
+15%YOY C H A N G E
+12%YOY C H A N G E
+17%YOY C H A N G E
Source: eMarketer
MAJOR MOBILE AD SPEND MARKETS WORLDWIDE
India and Thailand will see the fastest mobile advertising growth in 2020, with each market expected to rise over 40% year-over-year. Additionally, Denmark is projected to surpass $1 billion in mobile ad spend for the first time in 2020, coming in at 19th largest market in the world.
$ billions and % YOY change
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$4
$0
$2
$1
$6
$5
$3
+14%
AUST
RALI
A
+23%
CANA
DA
+33%
BRAZ
IL
+24%
FRAN
CE
+14%
SOUT
H KO
REA
+34%
RUSS
IA
+30%
MEX
ICO
+19%
ITAL
Y
+15%
NETH
ERLA
NDS
+17%
SWED
EN
+18%
SPAI
N
+42%
INDI
A
+17%
NORW
AY
+14%
DENM
ARK
+19%
NEW
ZEA
LAND
+46%
THAI
LAND
2019 2020
Bill
ions
Source: eMarketer
MOBILE INTERNET USERS WORLDWIDE
Mobile internet uptake has reached maturation among consumers, with over 85 percent of internet users accessing the it via handheld devices. This provides advertisers and publishers alike with a strong incentive to increase investment in mobile strategies.
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Source: eMarketer
% of internet usersMobile internet users
$5.1$5.0$5.0$4.9$4.8
86%
90%
2019 2020 2021 2022
Bill
ions $6
$2
$0
$4
87%
89%
89%
2023
PROJECTED SHARE OF US MOBILE AD SPEND, BY PLATFORM
In-app continues to drive incremental mobile ad spend in US. Spending will surpass $100 billion by 2020, with 85% of mobile ad dollars being purchased in-app. Similar estimates are not yet available worldwide, but growing app uptake among global consumers is likely to spur in-app ad spend around the globe next year. In Q3 2019 alone, nearly 31 billion apps were downloaded worldwide, up 10% year-over-year.
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Source: eMarketer; AppAnnie
M O B I L E W E B202015.4%
I N -A P P202084.6%
201917.5%
201982.5%
VIDEO ADVERTISING
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PROJECTED DIGITAL VIDEO AD SPEND WORLDWIDE
Video will remain a key driver of advertising expenditures on display, projected to account for 31% of overall display ad spending next year.
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Source: Zenith; PubMatic calculations
% of total displayVideo display ad spend
$37.2
$30.6
$24.0
$17.5
23.2%
26.0% 26.8% 26.6%
2015 2016 2017 2018
Bill
ions $70
$20
$10
$0
$40
$30
$44.6
27.9%
2019
$52.1
29.0%
2020
$61.3
30.5%
2021
$60
$50
PROJECTED DIGITAL VIDEO AD SPEND WORLDWIDE, BY PLATFORM
© 2 0 1 8 P U B M AT I C , I N C . A L L R I G H T S R E S E R V E D
Two-thirds of all global video ad spend is purchased on a mobile device. The continued shift towards mobile dominance will push this share to three-quarters of all video ad spend by 2024.
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Source: Cowen and Company; PubMatic calculations
46%
54%
$37.5
2018
40%
60%
$48.2
2019
35%
$59.6
2020
32%
65%
$71.5
2021
29%
71%
$83.9
2022
Mobile Desktop
Bill
ions $100
$40
$20
$0
$80
$60
2023 2024
26%
74%
$97.025%
75%
$110.6
68%
DIGITAL VIDEO METRICS WORLDWIDEMobile has secured a stronghold in its share of global digital video ad spending and video viewership. While its continued growth is cannibalizing from desktop viewership, ad spending on desktop continues to grow.
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Source: eMarketer, Cowen and Company; PubMatic calculations
Video ad spend ($ billions)
2019 2020 2019 2020
DESKTOP MOBILE
$19.3 $20.8 $28.9 $38.8
% YOY change 11% 8% 44% 34%
% share of digital video ad spend, by device
40% 35% 60% 65%
Viewership (billions) 0.47 0.49 2.2 2.3
% YOY change -2% -3% 9% 8%
% penetration of digital video viewers 12.4% 11.6% 56.4% 58.6%
Nearly three quarters of advertisers plan to increase their digital video ad budgets between 2019 and 2020. Only 1% of advertisers reported a decrease in their digital video ad spending.
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DIGITAL VIDEO AD SPEND INTENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS AMONG US AD BUYERS% of Respondents, April 2019
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Increase
40%BROADCAST/ CABLE TV
50%
59%
72% 27% 1%
38% 3%
44% 6%
41% 19%
OTT / CONNECTED TV
ADVANCED TV
DIGITAL VIDEO (DESKTOP
AND MOBILE)
Maintain Decrease
Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau
8 in 10 advertisers consider a cross-platform video (CTV, OTT, and digital video) buying solution to be important to them in 2019.
% of Respondents, April 2019
IMPORTANCE OF A CROSS-PLATFORM VIDEO BUYING SOLUTION ACCORDING TO ADVERTISERS
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Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau
S O M E W H A TI M P O R T A N T43%
V E R Y I M P O R T A N T40%
PROJECTED DIGITAL VIDEO AD SPEND SHARE WORLDWIDE, BY PURCHASE METHOD
Two-thirds of digital video ad spend outside the walled gardens of social media was transacted programmatically in 2019. The programmatic share worldwide should rise above 75% in 2020.
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201932.1%
201967.1%
Source: PubMatic calculations based on Zenith and Magna Global estimates; *excludes search and social media
N O N-P R O G R A M M A T I C 202024.7%
P R O G R A M M A T I C 202075.3%
TOP 5 PROGRAMMATIC* VIDEO AD SPEND MARKETS WORLDWIDE
Programmatic video ad placements are accelerating worldwide, thanks to the rapid growth in automation technology. Large markets like the US are still seeing robust double-digit growth rates.China will be the fastest-growing market in this group, rising 36% to surpassing $5 billion in 2020.
$ billions and % YOY change
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Source: Magna Global; PubMatic calculations; *excludes social media
$14.0
$10.1
US
Billi
ons $15
$3
$0
2019 2020
$5.5$4.3
CHINA
$2.6$2.2
UK
$2.3$1.8
JAPAN
$1.1$0.9
AUSTRALIA
+34%YOY C H A N G E
+36%YOY C H A N G E
+28%YOY C H A N G E
+32%YOY C H A N G E +29%
YOY C H A N G E
$12
$9
$6
MAJOR PROGRAMMATIC* VIDEO AD SPEND MARKETS WORLDWIDE
Indonesia will see programmatic video ad spend almost double in 2020, making it the fastest-growing market for the format in the world. Brazil will reach $1 billion in 2020, making it the 6th largest programmatic video ad market in the world.
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Source: Magna Global; PubMatic calculations; *excludes social media
$ millions and % YOY change
Mill
ions $1,200
$600
$0
$200
$800
$400
+46%
BRAZ
IL
+32%
GERM
ANY
+29%
FRAN
CE
+26%
ITAL
Y
+21%
CANA
DA
+85%
INDO
NESI
A
+33%
MEX
ICO
+37%
SPAI
N
+73%
INDI
A
+27%
NETH
ERLA
NDS
+40%
HONG
KON
G SA
R
+48%
ARGE
NTIN
A
+26%
SWED
EN
2019 2020
$1,000
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PRIVATE MARKETPLACES
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GLOBAL PROGRAMMATIC AD SPEND, BY TRANSACTION METHOD
Global private marketplaces (PMPs) account for a third of all programmatic spending. As concerns for fraud and brand safety persist, ad budgets will increasingly swing into the safe shelters of restricted auctions.
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Source: eMarketer; *excludes programmatic direct
35%
65%
2019
38%
62%
2020
PMP Open Exchange
Bill
ions $60
$30
$10
$0
$50
$40
$20
$43.6
$51.0
$ billions and % of programmatic ad spend
PROJECTED US PRIVATE MARKETPLACE DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPEND
US private marketplaces (PMPs) will be the dominant transaction method in 2020. It will grow at double digit rates through 2021 as buyers and sellers of digital impressions seek more control over their transactions.
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Bill
ions $14
$8
$4
$0
$12
$10
$6
$2
Source: eMarketer
% of Real-Time Bidding ad spendPMP ad spend
$13.9
$10.6
$8.6
46%
49%
53%
2018 2019 2020 2021
$12.3
51%
PROJECTED US PRIVATE MARKETPLACE AD SPENDING, BY DEVICE
Mobile will account for two-thirds of all US PMP ad spending by 2020. However, it will continue to trail the share the device achieves of overall programmatic ad spend.
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Source: eMarketer; *excludes programmatic direct
43%
57%
2018
40%
60%
2019
37%
63%
2020
31%
69%
2021
Desktop Mobile
Bill
ions $14
$8
$4
$0
$12
$10
$6
$2
$8.6
$10.6
$12.3
$13.9
PROJECTED UK PRIVATE MARKETPLACE DIGITAL DISPLAY AD SPEND
UK private marketplaces (PMPs) will reach half of all real-time ad buys in 2020. It will grow at double digit rates through 2021 as buyers and sellers seek more control over their transactions.
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2018 2019 2020 2021$0
Bill
ions $2.0
$1.5
$0.5
$1.0
Source: eMarketer
% of Real-Time Bidding ad spendPMP ad spend
45%
48%
50%
54%
$1.3
$1.5
$1.7
$1.1
PROJECTED UK PRIVATE MARKETPLACE AD SPENDING, BY DEVICE
Mobile will almost reach three-quarters of all PMP ad spending in 2020, ahead of the US market.
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Source: eMarketer; *excludes programmatic direct
37%
63%
2018
29%
71%
2019
27 %
73%
2020
27%
73%
2021
Desktop Mobile
$0
$1.3
$1.5
$1.7
Bill
ions $2.0
$1.5
$0.5
$1.0
$1.1
MONETIZED MOBILE PRIVATE MARKETPLACE MARKET SHARE, BY REGIONGlobally, the expansion of mobile private marketplace volume has been fueled by the Americas region; its share accounts for half of all worldwide mobile PMP ad impressions.
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Source: PubMatic
A P A CQ2 201921%
29%Q2 2018
A M E R I C A SQ2 201950%
15%Q2 2018
56%
E M E AQ2 201929%Q2 2018
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PUBMATIC CONTACT
Research Contact:
SUSAN WUDirector, Marketing Research
About PubMaticPubMatic is a digital advertising technology company for premium content creators. The PubMatic platform empowers independent app developers and publishers to control and maximize their digital advertising businesses. PubMatic’s publisher-centric approach enables advertisers to maximize ROI by reaching and engaging their target audiences in brand-safe, premium environments across ad formats anddevices. Since 2006, PubMatic has created
an efficient, global infrastructure and remains at the forefront of programmatic innovation. Headquartered in Redwood City, California, PubMatic operates 13 offices and six data centers worldwide.
PubMatic is a registered trademark of PubMatic, Inc. Other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
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