2
Methodology
On behalf of The Israel Project, Public Opinion
Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Research conducted a national survey of N=800
registered voters.
The survey was administered by phone and was
conducted February 26-28, 2012. The survey has
a margin of error of +3.46%.
Opinion elites are defined as those voters who
have a college education and have a household
income over $80,000.
4
24%
30%
23%
38% 34%
48%
61%
71% 69%
59% 66%
58%
44%
63% 60%
57% 56% 58%
51%
58% 56%
51% 51% 55%
58% 56%
60%
57%
2% 4% 3%
11%
6% 7% 10%
8% 6% 7% 6%
9% 5%
8% 5% 5%
7% 9%
5% 7%
5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 10%
8% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Israel Supporter Palestinian Supporter Neither/Don’t Know/Refused
** Trend from joint research by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies.
Disengagement
Lebanon
Crisis in
Egypt
Flotilla Incident Talks
Stall
Peace talks
renew
Gaza War
Israel-Hamas Truce
Annapolis
Now, thinking about the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in the Middle East,
please tell me whether, in general, you think America should be... A strong supporter of Israel, a
supporter of Israel, a supporter of the Palestinians ...or... a strong supporter of the Palestinians?
Voters continue to believe the US should side with Israel in the conflict with the Palestinians.
5
24% 19%
32% 27% 25%
69% 73%
63% 64% 69%
March 2008
January 2009
Sept 2010
June 2011
February 2012
Land Relig. Land Relig. Land Relig. Land Relig. Land Relig.
There continues to be a strong sentiment that the conflict is really about ideology and religion.
I am going to read you two statements about this conflict, and after I read them, please tell me which
statement you agree with more... The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is really about
land. Once agreements are reached on how to divide Jerusalem and establishing borders, the two
sides can achieve a peace agreement ...or... The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is about
ideology and religion. The two sides can achieve a peace agreement only when they acknowledge
each other’s right to exist.
6
21% 21%
33%
73% 69%
65%
GOP (29%)
IND (39%)
DEM (32%)
Land Ideology/ Religion Land
Conflict about Land vs. Ideology/Religion: By Party
Ideology/ Religion Land
This viewpoint is shared across party lines.
Ideology/ Religion
June 2011
21 26 59 71 64 33
7
19% 25% 26% 27% 25%
74% 69% 71% 68%
64%
18-34 (17%)
35-44 (28%)
45-54 (14%)
55-64 (21%)
65+ (19%)
Land Ideo/ Rel
And among all age groups.
Land Ideo/ Rel Land
Ideo/ Rel Land
Ideo/ Rel Land
Ideo/ Rel
Conflict about Land vs. Ideology/Religion: By Age
June 2011
28 62 30 61 23 72 26 68 27 61
8
When voters are presented with two different world views...
Please tell me which of the following two descriptions better fits your view of the world...
Is your view of the world that...
...or is your view of the world that...
If different people and cultures spent more time
getting to know one another and communicating
about our problems, we could all get along.
The world is a place where some people’s values
just aren’t the same as ours and we need to
protect ourselves from terrorists and extremists
who would destroy our way of life
9
44% 46% 48% 53% 51% 49% 46% 45% 44% 44%
July 2003
November 2006
March 2008
August 2009
February 2012
Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect
Voters remain pretty evenly divided as to which description better fits their own view.
Please tell me which of the following two descriptions better fits your view of the world... Is your
view of the world that...If different people and cultures spent more time getting to know one
another and communicating about our problems, we could all get along? ...or is your view of the
world that...The world is a place where some people’s values just aren’t the same as ours and we
need to protect ourselves from terrorists and extremists who would destroy our way of life?
10
29%
53%
71% 67%
42%
25%
GOP (29%)
IND (39%)
DEM (32%)
Comm with each
Other
Protect Ourselves
Comm with each
Other
Protect Ourselves
Comm with each
Other
Independents and Democrats hold a different views than GOP’ers.
Protect Ourselves
Please tell me which of the following two descriptions better fits your view of the world... Is your
view of the world that...If different people and cultures spent more time getting to know one
another and communicating about our problems, we could all get along? ...or is your view of the
world that...The world is a place where some people’s values just aren’t the same as ours and we
need to protect ourselves from terrorists and extremists who would destroy our way of life?
By Party
11
57% 53%
57%
48% 43%
34%
43% 40%
50% 53%
18-34 (17%)
35-44 (28%)
45-54 (14%)
55-64 (21%)
65+ (19%)
Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect Comm Protect
There are some interesting differences by age.
Please tell me which of the following two descriptions better fits your view of the world... Is your
view of the world that...If different people and cultures spent more time getting to know one
another and communicating about our problems, we could all get along? ...or is your view of the
world that...The world is a place where some people’s values just aren’t the same as ours and we
need to protect ourselves from terrorists and extremists who would destroy our way of life?
By Age
12
43%
74%
46%
56%
25%
54%
March 2008
January 2009
February 2012
How much have you seen, read or heard recently regarding the military conflict
between Israel and the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip?
A Lot/
Some
Not Much/
Nothing
A Lot/
Some
Not Much/
Nothing
A Lot/
Some
Not Much/
Nothing
Voters don’t recall that much about recent military conflict in the Gaza Strip.
13
Israel is a partner with the U.S. in our fight against terrorism
Israel is our most important ally in the Middle East
The top reason Americans believe the US should support Israel is because they are our most
important ally in the Middle East. Which TWO of the following are the best reasons why the United States SHOULD support Israel?
39%
28%
22%
20%
16%
11%
10%
9%
8%
8%
6%
% Combined Choice
Israel shares our values including the freedom of speech,
religion, press and the right to vote
God gave the land to the Jews who had lived there for
thousands of years
Israel is under threat from Iran, a country that wants to wipe
Israel off the map
Israel is working for peace for both sides
Israeli citizens are vulnerable to terrorist attacks
Israel leads on alternative energy that can reduce U.S.
dependence on foreign oil
Israel is an economic partner of the U.S., helping to create
American jobs
During the Arab Spring it is a country in the Middle East that
we can rely on
Israel uses innovation and technology invent things that help
us in the United States
15
56%
20%
7%
27%
9%
21% 14%
42%
74%
30%
58%
21%
Total Total Total Total* Total* Total**
Warm
Fav:
50+
Warm
Fav:
50+
Cold
Unf:
<50
Warm
Fav:
50+
Cold
Unf:
<50
Warm
Fav:
50+
Cold
Unf:
<50
Cold
Unf:
<50
Cold
Unf:
<50
A majority of Americans view Israel favorably.
First, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations from around the world, with
one hundred meaning VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD,
UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from
zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or
organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
Israel The
Palestinians
Iran Egypt Syria Turkey
*Asked of Sample A,
N=400 *Asked of Sample A,
N=400
**Asked of
Sample B, N=400
16
Attitudes toward Israel have remained pretty stable.
58% 59% 59% 57%
50%
63%
38%
49%
57%
45%
55% 53%
45%
40% 42%
51% 51%
60% 56%
16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14%
24% 22%
12%
23%
10% 18%
13%
20% 23%
14% 20%
15% 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total
Warm
Cold
56%
14%
Warm Cold
Israel
** Trend from joint research by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies.
First, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations from around the world, with
one hundred meaning VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD,
UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from
zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or
organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
17
While views toward the Palestinians continue to be pretty negative.
31% 33%
41%
31%
23% 26%
14% 15%
22%
14%
22%
14% 16% 15% 14% 16% 16%
26% 20%
38% 36%
28% 27%
43% 42% 42%
49%
38% 44%
33%
53%
38% 37%
41% 45%
48%
39% 42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total
Warm
Cold
20%
42%
The Palestinians
** Trend from joint research by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies.
Warm Cold
First, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations from around the world, with
one hundred meaning VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD,
UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from
zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or
organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
18
Total
9% 11% 8% 8% 10%
7% 10% 8% 8% 7%
14%
7%
69% 71% 66%
72%
62%
75%
61% 63% 67%
70% 65%
74%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Warm
Cold
Iran is viewed very negatively by American voters.
7%
74%
Warm Cold
** Trend from joint research by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies.
Iran
First, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations from around the world, with
one hundred meaning VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD,
UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from
zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or
organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
19
42% 36%
7% 2%
20% 14%
42%
73%
Total** Total** Total** Total**
Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu
Warm/
Fav:
51+
Cold/
Unfav:
<50
Cold/
Unfav:
<50
Cold/
Unfav:
<50
Among world leaders tested, Netanyahu and Peres perceived positively.
Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Israeli President
Shimon Peres
Palestinian PM
Mahmoud Abbas
First, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations from around the world, with
one hundred meaning VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD,
UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from
zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or
organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
**Asked of Sample B, N=400
Warm/
Fav:
51+
20
5% 3% 4% 9%
62%
24%
60% 54%
Total* Total** Total* Total*
Hamas
Cold/
Unfav:
<50
Cold/
Unfav:
<50
Cold/
Unfav:
<50
Cold/
Unfav:
<50
Hamas, Fatah, Hezbollah, and the Muslim Brotherhood are all viewed negatively.
The Muslim
Brotherhood
Fatah Hezbollah
First, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations from around the world, with
one hundred meaning VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD,
UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from
zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or
organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
*Asked of Sample A, N=400 **Asked of Sample B, N=400
21
20% 26%
Total
Warm/Favorable: 51+ Cold/Unfavorable: <50
And, voters really aren’t quite sure what to make of the Arab Spring.
Arab Spring
First, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations from around the world, with
one hundred meaning VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD,
UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from
zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or
organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
23
60%
55%
49%
41%
24%
9%
Iran’s nuclear program**
The Arab Spring**
A developing China*
The situation with Iran*
Muslim Extremism*
Voters view Iran as a greater threat to the U.S. than the European crisis, China and Arab Spring.
Please tell me whether you think each of the following is a very big threat, a moderate threat, not
much of a threat or no threat at all to the United States.
The economic crisis in Europe**
% Very Big Threat
*Asked of Sample A, N=400 **Asked of Sample B, N=400
24
% Very Big Threat
By Party Total
GOP (29%)
IND (39%)
DEM (32%)
Muslim Extremism* 60% 79% 61% 43%
Iran’s nuclear program** 55% 68% 51% 50%
The situation with Iran* 49% 68% 47% 37%
The economic crisis in Europe** 41% 44% 48% 30%
A developing China* 24% 40% 21% 14%
The Arab Spring** 9% 18% 10% 1%
Democrats are a bit more focused on Iran’s nuclear program.
Please tell me whether you think each of the following is a very big threat, a moderate threat, not
much of a threat or no threat at all to the United States.
*Asked of Sample A, N=400 **Asked of Sample B, N=400
26
Does Iran’s nuclear program pose a very big threat, a moderate threat, not much of a threat or
no threat at all to each of the following places...
The United States
44%
35%
13% 7%
Total
Very
Big Threat
Not Much
Threat No Threat
Moderate
Threat
While nearly half of voters say that Iran’s nuclear program is a very big threat to the
United States...
27
67%
21%
5% 4%
Total
Fully two-thirds of voters believe it is a very big threat to Israel.
Does Iran’s nuclear program pose a very big threat, a moderate threat, not much of a threat or
no threat at all to each of the following places...
Israel
Very
Big Threat
Not Much
Threat
No Threat
Moderate
Threat
28
There’s also a sense that Iran’s a very big threat to the Iranian people, other Arab countries in the
Middle East, and to a lesser extent, Europe.
45% 39%
34% 34% 39% 42%
12% 14% 15%
6% 6% 7%
Total Total Total
Very
Big
Not
Much None Mod
The Iranian People* Other Arab countries in the
Middle East**
**Asked of Sample A, N=400 *Asked of Sample B, N=400
Does Iran’s nuclear program pose a very big threat, a moderate threat, not much of a threat or
no threat at all to each of the following places...
Europe
Very
Big
Not
Much None Mod
Very
Big
Not
Much None Mod
30
82% 89%
83% 75%
16% 11%
15% 23%
Total GOP (29%)
IND (39%)
DEM (32%)
Fully 82% of Americans support the economic and trade sanctions on Iran to discourage
their nuclear program. Now, as you may know, the United States has imposed strong economic and trade sanctions on Iran to
try to discourage Iran's nuclear program... Generally speaking, do you support or oppose
these sanctions?*
By Party Total
Support Oppose Support Oppose
*Asked of Sample A, N=400
55%
Strongly
67%
Strongly
50%
Strongly
51%
Strongly
Support Oppose Support Oppose
31
74% 81%
90% 86%
81%
22% 17%
10% 13% 17%
18-34 (20%)
35-44 (25%)
45-54 (13%)
55-64 (22%)
65+ (19%)
Support for sanctions also cuts across all age groups.
Now, as you may know, the United States has imposed strong economic and trade sanctions on Iran to
try to discourage Iran's nuclear program... Generally speaking, do you support or oppose
these sanctions?*
By Age
Sup Opp
*Asked of Sample A, N=400
32%
Strong
Sup Opp Sup Opp Sup Opp Sup Opp
55%
Strong
71%
Strong 63%
Strong 60%
Strong
32
32%
20%
30%
46%
67%
80%
68%
54%
Total GOP (29%)
IND (39%)
DEM (32%)
But, there’s really not a strong sense that sanctions and diplomacy will prevent Iran from
developing nuclear capabilities. How likely do you think it is that sanctions and diplomacy will prevent Iran’s development of
nuclear capabilities?**
By Party Total
Likely
Not
Likely
**Asked of Sample B, N=400
9%
Very
30%
Not
At All 6%
Very
37%
Not
At All
8%
Very
34%
Not
At All 12%
Very
18%
Not
At All
Likely
Not
Likely Likely
Not
Likely Likely
Not
Likely
33
34% 30% 28% 29%
37%
66% 68% 70% 71%
61%
18-34 (15%)
35-44 (30%)
45-54 (15%)
55-64 (20%)
65+ (19%)
And, this sentiment is true across age …
By Age
Likely
Not
Likely
**Asked of Sample B, N=400
6%
Very
36%
Not
At All
Likely
Not
Likely
10%
Very
21%
Not
At All
Likely
Not
Likely
5%
Very
40%
Not
At All
Likely
Not
Likely
6%
Very
30%
Not
At All
Likely
Not
Likely
14%
Very
29%
Not
At All
How likely do you think it is that sanctions and diplomacy will prevent Iran’s development of
nuclear capabilities?**
34
31%
68%
Opinion Elites (30%)
And, among opinion elites.
Among Elites
Likely Not Likely
**Asked of Sample B, N=400
24%
Not At All 5%
Very Likely
How likely do you think it is that sanctions and diplomacy will prevent Iran’s development of
nuclear capabilities?**
35
79% 78%
21% 19%
Total Total
Now I am going to read you a series of actions that can be taken with regard to Iran if
they do not stop their nuclear program. After I read each one, please tell me whether
you support or oppose that action...
Support
Voters overwhelmingly support talks and expanded sanctions on Iran.
Direct talks with Iran to negotiate
over its nuclear program
Support Oppose Oppose
Expanded economic and
diplomatic sanctions
12%
Strongly
55%
Strongly 49%
Strongly
37
And, which TWO of the following information sources are the most significant in
shaping your views on the Middle East?
60%
35%
31%
21%
19%
15%
4%
4%
3%
A
p
p
TV news
An overwhelming majority of American voters get their information about the Middle East
from TV news.
Newspapers
The Internet
Your own religious beliefs
Radio News
Family and friends
% Combined
Community or political leaders
Schools or universities
Lectures or events
38
And, which type of internet site do you typically use for information about the Middle East?
75%
5%
3%
A
p
p
Social networking sites like You-Tube,
Facebook or Twitter
And, it’s clearly mainstream media over
social networking.
Mainstream media websites like CNN,
MSNBC, Yahoo or Fox News
Other
Total*
*Among N=695, those who TV news, Newspapers, or Internet.
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