14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
House Price Developments in Europe
Peter Parlasca FRICS
19th European Real Estate Society Conference
Edinburgh, 13th-16 June 2012
14 June 2012
Outline
Background Legal Framework Macroeconomic surveillance Scoreboard Indicators Data sources On-going issues Scoreboard website House Price Indices (HPI) annual Experimental Statistics quarterly
2Peter Parlasca FRICS: House Price Developments in Europe
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Background
The financial crisis, the economic crises, and the sovereign debt crisis that swept over Europe in 2008 and the following years lead to a number of new EU Policy initiatives:– Van Rompuy Task Force report on Strengthening
economic governance in the EU (21 October 2010)– Commission proposal of 29 September 2010 on an
Enhanced Economic Policy Coordination
3
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Legal Framework
Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure legal framework published in November 2011 - “Six Pack” – Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and
of the Council on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances
– Regulation (EU) No 1174/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council on enforcement measures to correct excessive macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area
The role of Eurostat: Council Conclusions of 8 November 2011– The Council invites the Commission (Eurostat) to take all
necessary initiatives to assure a reliable procedure for the compilation of these statistics as well as a continuous improvement of the underlying statistical information
4
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Macroeconomic surveillance (1)
Commission procedure aiming to the identification of emerging or persistent macroeconomic imbalances at an early stage
Based on a scoreboard consisting of a small number of relevant macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators
Compiled according to the principles of the European Statistics Code of Practice of the European Statistical System
Combined with thresholds defined by the Commission Annual exercise: results published in the Alert Mechanism
Report
5
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Macroeconomic surveillance (2)
MIP scoreboard indicators should not be regarded as either policy targets or policy instruments
their interpretation should be supplemented by economic judgment and country-specific expertise
The composition of the MIP scoreboard indicators may evolve over time
First Alert Mechanism Report published on 14th February Together with Eurostat news release:Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard - Eurostat indicators
to support the detection of macroeconomic imbalances
6
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Macroeconomic surveillance (3)
7
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Imbalance indicators
– public indebtedness– private indebtedness – asset market developments: housing– evolution of private sector credit flow – evolution of unemployment– evolution of current account – net investment positions – real effective exchange rates– share of world exports– nominal unit labour cost
8
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Scoreboard indicators
Current account balance % of GDP- 3 year avg
Net international investment position % of GDP
Real effective exchange rate 3 year % change
Share of world exports 5 year % change
Nominal unit labour cost index 3 year % change
House prices - deflated 1 year % change
Private credit flow % of GDP
Private debt % of GDP
General government gross debt (EDP) % of GDP
Unemployment rate 3 year avg
9
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Data sources for House Price Indices
Eurostat is the main provider receiving data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs)
The European Central Bank complements data based on contributions of the National Central Banks (NCBs)
10
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Ongoing issues
House prices - legislation – Adoption of the regulation on the regular compilation of
harmonised data
House prices - coverage– Increasing number of EU Member States covered by the
experimental house price statistics
11
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
The scoreboard website
Dedicated section of the Eurostat website: scoreboard website
Quarterly and additional data easily accessible in the same page
Data up-to-date Data available for all member states Users can also find metadata in the standard ESMS format And, for each indicator, a direct link to a table containing
longer time series
12
House Price Indices (HPI) annual change
Hand out
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 13
House Price Indices (HPI) annual
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 14
Experimental House Price Indices - quarterly
Weblink:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/methodology/owner_occupied_housing_hpi/experimental_house_price_indices
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 15
Contact Details
Peter Parlasca FRICS
European Commission EUROSTAT5, rue Alphonse WeickerL-2721 LuxembourgTel : (+352)4301-33101E-Mail: [email protected]
14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference 16