14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

House Price Developments in Europe

Peter Parlasca FRICS

19th European Real Estate Society Conference

Edinburgh, 13th-16 June 2012

14 June 2012

Outline

Background Legal Framework Macroeconomic surveillance Scoreboard Indicators Data sources On-going issues Scoreboard website House Price Indices (HPI) annual Experimental Statistics quarterly

2Peter Parlasca FRICS: House Price Developments in Europe

14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

Background

The financial crisis, the economic crises, and the sovereign debt crisis that swept over Europe in 2008 and the following years lead to a number of new EU Policy initiatives:– Van Rompuy Task Force report on Strengthening

economic governance in the EU (21 October 2010)– Commission proposal of 29 September 2010 on an

Enhanced Economic Policy Coordination

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14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

Legal Framework

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure legal framework published in November 2011 - “Six Pack” – Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and

of the Council on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances

– Regulation (EU) No 1174/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council on enforcement measures to correct excessive macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area

The role of Eurostat: Council Conclusions of 8 November 2011– The Council invites the Commission (Eurostat) to take all

necessary initiatives to assure a reliable procedure for the compilation of these statistics as well as a continuous improvement of the underlying statistical information

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14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

Macroeconomic surveillance (1)

Commission procedure aiming to the identification of emerging or persistent macroeconomic imbalances at an early stage

Based on a scoreboard consisting of a small number of relevant macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators

Compiled according to the principles of the European Statistics Code of Practice of the European Statistical System

Combined with thresholds defined by the Commission Annual exercise: results published in the Alert Mechanism

Report

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14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

Macroeconomic surveillance (2)

MIP scoreboard indicators should not be regarded as either policy targets or policy instruments

their interpretation should be supplemented by economic judgment and country-specific expertise

The composition of the MIP scoreboard indicators may evolve over time

First Alert Mechanism Report published on 14th February Together with Eurostat news release:Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard - Eurostat indicators

to support the detection of macroeconomic imbalances

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14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

Macroeconomic surveillance (3)

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14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

Imbalance indicators

– public indebtedness– private indebtedness – asset market developments: housing– evolution of private sector credit flow – evolution of unemployment– evolution of current account – net investment positions – real effective exchange rates– share of world exports– nominal unit labour cost

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14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

Scoreboard indicators

Current account balance % of GDP- 3 year avg

Net international investment position % of GDP

Real effective exchange rate 3 year % change

Share of world exports 5 year % change

Nominal unit labour cost index 3 year % change

House prices - deflated 1 year % change

Private credit flow % of GDP

Private debt % of GDP

General government gross debt (EDP) % of GDP

Unemployment rate 3 year avg

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14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

Data sources for House Price Indices

Eurostat is the main provider receiving data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs)

The European Central Bank complements data based on contributions of the National Central Banks (NCBs)

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14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

Ongoing issues

House prices - legislation – Adoption of the regulation on the regular compilation of

harmonised data

House prices - coverage– Increasing number of EU Member States covered by the

experimental house price statistics

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14 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

The scoreboard website

Dedicated section of the Eurostat website: scoreboard website

Quarterly and additional data easily accessible in the same page

Data up-to-date Data available for all member states Users can also find metadata in the standard ESMS format And, for each indicator, a direct link to a table containing

longer time series

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House Price Indices (HPI) annual change

Hand out

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House Price Indices (HPI) annual

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Experimental House Price Indices - quarterly

Weblink:

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/methodology/owner_occupied_housing_hpi/experimental_house_price_indices

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Contact Details

Peter Parlasca FRICS

European Commission EUROSTAT5, rue Alphonse WeickerL-2721 LuxembourgTel : (+352)4301-33101E-Mail: Peter.Parlasca@ec.europa.eu

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