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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids
Using Semi-Automated Decision Algorithms in
Military OperationsBy
Dennis R. [email protected]
TRW Systems
PHOENIX CHALLENGE 2002February 20-22, 2002
New Mexico State University,Las Cruces, NM
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids
• The goal is a set of configurable, flexible, semi-automated decision support tools.
• Support for multi-echelon, joint services command simulation at the operational and strategic levels for the IO/IW, AOC, NMD, TMD, and Strategic Deterence missions.
• Based on Joint Operations Planning and Execution System (JOPES) concepts.
• Includes Data Mining, Dempster-Shafer Belief Network, Genetic, Optimal Policy, and Case Based Planning algorithms.
• Supports parallelism, shared memory, and multiple processors.
• Designed for maximum scalability and parallelism as a distributed system.
General Purpose Decision Aids Overview
Decision Makers
Coo
rdin
ated
C
ON
OPS
Dec
isio
nA
lgor
ithm
s
Doc
trin
e
Ope
ratio
nal
Dat
abas
es
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids
System of Systems
SingleSystem
Co-dependentMissions
OperatorDialog
PassiveObservance
Non-InteractingSystems
Tight Loose
OperationalCells
Collaborative Agents
CommonDecisionsMessage
passing
Joint Exercises
Degree of Integration
Spectrum of Options for Approach
Our focus has been in this area
PracticalImplementation
at AOCs
TADIL-Jis a start
Basis for multi-mission synergy
SmartCollaboration
NMD/TMD/AOC Wargames
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids
Joint Operations Planning & Execution System
Situation Assessment
Course of Action Selection
Detailed Planning
Mission Execution
Repeat if necessary
JOPES-based Deliberative Processes
- Manage Forces- Force Survivable- Weather- Target Viability- Threats
- Identify Goals - Filter Preplans- Selects COAs- Defensive Strategies- Offensive Strategies- Integrate/Deconflict
- Weapon Allocation - Asset Tasking- Joint Scheduling- Define C2 timeline- Satisfy Constraints- Optimize Plan
- Adjust Status- Set Engagement- Assign Assets- Monitor Strikes- Enforce Timeline- Assess Mission
- Plan Update- Redirect Forces- Reconstitute
OPSCAP/SYSCAP Reports
Readiness Reports
Weather Update
Target Assessment
DEFCON Change
Commander’s Estimate Operations Order
Threat Assessment
Engagement Schedule Execute Order
OPSCAP/SYSCAP Reports
Fragmentary Order
Terminate Order
Execute Order
Typical Mission
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids
• Decision = State Transition
- Current State, Transition (Plan & Assess) , and Desired State may not be known - This paradigm has been shown to neatly sort decisions, algorithms, and displays
Representation: Decision Categories: Military Equivalent:
Clarify Current State Situation Analysis
Clarify Desired State Determine Objective
Define Alternatives Develop COAs
Execute/Assess Plan Combat Assessment
PlanCurrentState Assess
DesiredState
Legend: known unknown
NEW!
Decision Centered Approach
Transition
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids
• Background Tasks
• Foreground Tasks - Decision Toolkit
Deliberate Planning• Case-based Planner• Planning Horizon• Terrain Reasoning• Target Designation
Mission Planning• Mission Previewer• Engagement Planner• Optimize Effectiveness• Schedule Repair
Decision ToolsControllerFog-of-War
MissionSimulator
Execution Monitoring• Timeline Enforcer• Rule-Based Execution• Effectiveness Metric• Plan Update Trigger
C&C
Element Management• Force Management• Force Survival• Target Viability
Problem Recognition• Profile Generation• Clustering• Rule Induction
Assessment• Dempster-Shafer Belief Network
• Our decision tools span the full spectrum of military decision making, including Effects Based Operations assessment feedback.
Decision Tools
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids
Planning Thread:
Execution Thread:
Legend: FunctionTechnology
Determine Course of Action
Case-Based Reasoning
Assess Mission Readiness
Data Mining
Optimize Plan
Genetic Algorithm
Preview Mission
Map-Based Visualizer
Assess Mission Effectiveness
BeliefNetwork
Perturb Environment
Fog-of-WarModule
Monitor Timeline
Timeline Visualizer
Update Plan
Optimal Policy
Interleaved Planning & Execution
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids
• Dempster-Shafer Networks
• Information Operations
• Anti-Terrorism Operations
• Combat Assessment
• Weather Forecast
• Space & Terrestrial Weather
• Time Critical Target Assessment
• Foreign Launch Assessment
Situation Diagnosis
The data: - Is usually uncertain, incomplete, ambiguous - Possibly conflicting - Arrives asynchronously
Under intense time pressure, people often: 1) Refuse to decide 2) “Jump to conclusions” 3) Ignore potentially important evidence 4) Have difficulty understanding data correlation
It is crucial that situations are properly diagnosed because military decisions that adversely affect lives, property, and the environment are based on the assessment of the situation, making the decision inherently risky.
Taskto
Strategy
Belief inHypotheses
Time
Evidence
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Information Ops - Operator View
Evidence aboutassociated hypothesis
Belief in evidence supporting associated hypothesis below blue line.Disbelief in evidence supporting associated hypothesis above red line.Amount of ignorance about associated hypothesis between lines.
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids
• Data Mining
• Weka
• Subdue
Pattern Discovery
Given a large, dynamically changing database, a decision-maker must understand relationships among data fields, guard against corrupt data, and be alerted to changes in the underlying structure of the data.
Shallow Data(discover with SQL)
Multi-Dimensional Data(discover with OLAP)
Hidden Data(discover with Weka)
Deep Data(discover only with
manual clues)
• Weka uses Quinlan’s C5.0 Classifier to find underlying structure and build a rule tree that identifies “outliers”.
• Inconsistencies, omissions, and conflicts are explicitly shown.
• Weka uses statistical techniques for data extraction:
- Rule Induction- Neural Networks- Regression Modeling- K Nearest Neighbor Clustering
• Subdue uses a Minimum Description Length (MDL) algorithm to compress and hierarchically cluster.
OurEfforts
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids WEKA - Rule Induction View
Lat > 39.459 OPR2 NOP
Lat < 39.4Lon > 127.22 OPR56 NOPLat > 39.1
Lon < 127.231 OPR2 NOP
Legend: OPR -> OperationalNOP -> Non-Operational
Lat < 39.1Lon < 127.230 NOP SA-2s
Lat > 38.5Lon < 127.21 OPR SA-330 NOP SA-3s
Rules that determine if a threat Surface-to-Air site is operational or not
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Strategy Determination/Detailed Planning
• Course-of-Action Development
• Detailed Plan Development
Because of the complexity and size of the planning space and the number of possible combinations of factors and constraints that must be considered during the planning phase, manual planning methods, and most current automated methods, are too narrowly focused, inflexible, time consuming, and not scalable.
The characteristics of this decision type are: 1) A decision-maker is given broad objectives that result in an ill-posed problem, 2) Exponential explosion of possible solutions, 3) Many dimensions and/or criteria, and 4) Difficulty in quantitatively rating the worth of a strategy.
When faced with these circumstances, people often attempt to: 1) Recall a course-of-action that worked in previous similar circumstances, 2) Caucus to arrive at a consensus (i.e., group-think), or 3) Identify a dominant criteria and assemble a strategy around it.
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids COA/Detailed Planning Overview
PlanOptimization
ActiveOptions
COAPlanner
Detailed Plan
TargetAssessment
Target Selection Process
ActiveTargets
ResponseOptions
TargetStatus
Viable AreaTargetsName
WeaponArenaType
NameLocaleLocationTypeValueHardnessMobile
Option, Target...
NameTypeArenaWeapon
JCSOrder St
a tic
Sta
tus
Dynamic Status
(Har
dnes
s , M
obili
ty, e
tc.)
COACase Base
ConstraintsSelection Criteria
COA NameKeywords
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Strategy Determination - COA View
This screen displays the “goodness-of-match” of the input Planning Order against previously stored cases to aid the analyst in generating a new Course-of-Action.
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Detailed Planning - Operator View
This screen allows the analyst to evaluate the effectiveness of additional plans and instantly see the diversity and details of each plan.
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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Summary
We have refined, tailored, and demonstrated innovative decision tools that span the full spectrum of JOPES command and control decision-making in these areas:
• Situation diagnosis using a Dempster-Shafer Belief algorithm
• Pattern discovery using Data Mining algorithms
• Strategy determination using a Case-Based Reasoning algorithm
• Detailed planning using a Genetic Algorithm
We have demonstrated the applicability of these algorithms and support tools in multiple mission domains:
• IO/IW Defensive Counter-Information
• Aerospace Operations Center (AOC)
• Anti-terrorism
• Strategic Deterrent Forces (SDF) and National Missile Defense (NMD)
For more information, contact the author at [email protected]