1 Peneliti Ekonomi di Grup Riset Ekonomi–Departemen Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter (DKM),
Bank Indonesia. Pandangan dalam paper ini merupakan pandangan penulis dan tidak semata-mata mencerminkan pandangan DKM atau Bank Indonesia.
21
KKI2 Nama Kelompok Industri Jumlah Perusahaan %
15 Makanan dan Minuman 84 37.33
16 Tembakau 9 4.00
17 Tekstil 11 4.89
18 Pakaian Jadi 1 0.44
19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 6 2.67
20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 10 4.44
21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas 5 2.22
22 Penerbitan, percetakan, dan reproduksi 11 4.89
24 Kimia dan barang2 dari bahan kimia 12 5.33
25 Karet dan barang2 dari plastik 26 11.56
26 Barang galian bukan logam 21 9.33
28 Barang2 dari logam dan peralatannya 4 1.78
31 Mesin listrik lainnya dan perlengkapannya 1 0.44
36 Furniture dan industri pengolahan lainnya 24 10.67
225 100.00Total
(3.18)
25
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
REER PDB Manufaktur (yoy) - Kanan
Apr
esia
si
Indeks
ApresiasiApresiasi
%
26
Sub Sektor Industri Pengolahan Non Migas Share Ekspor
1) Makanan, Minuman, dan Tembakau 13.86
2) Tekstil, Barang Kulit, dan Alas Kaki 39.70
3) Barang Kayu dan Hasil Hutan Lainnya 48.00
4) Kertas dan Barang Cetakan 25.81
5) Kimia dan Barang dari Karet 27.32
6) Semen dan Barang Galian Bukan Logam 11.79
7) Logam Dasar, Besi dan Baja 16.62
8) Alat Angkutan, Mesin dan Peralatannya 22.71
9) Barang Lainnya 60.43
Total 25.19 5 30 55 80
Industri kimia
Industri alat pengangkutan dan perbaikannya
Industri pupuk dan pestisida
Industri barang dari logam
Industri mesin, alat-alat dan perlengkapan listrik
2008
2005
2000
1995
Kandungan Input Impor pada Outputt
%
27
Tabel II.4 Distribusi Perusahaan berdasarkan Tingkat Profit
Rugi Kecil Sedang Besar
2002 0% 95% 4% 1%
2003 2% 95% 2% 1%
2004 0% 96% 2% 2%
2005 0% 95% 3% 2%
2006 0% 93% 4% 3%
2007 0% 96% 2% 2%
2008 0% 95% 4% 1%
2009 0% 95% 3% 2%
Total 0% 95% 3% 2%
TahunTingkat Profit
28
0
1
2
3
4
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
REER Rasio Profit - Kanan
%Indeks
ApresiasiApr
esia
si
19.64
3.9
-5.71
0.93
20.09
2.4
-5.01-3.72
0
1
2
3
4
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
REER (yoy) Rasio Profit - Kanan
% %
Apr
esia
si
Apresiasi
29
KKI 2 Subsektor Kecil Sedang Besar
15 Makanan dan Minuman 80% 18% 2%
16 Tembakau 22% 33% 44%
17 Tekstil 27% 9% 64%
18 Pakaian Jadi 0% 0% 100%
19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 67% 33% 0%
20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 50% 30% 20%
21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas 60% 40% 0%
22 Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi 36% 45% 18%
24 Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia 42% 50% 8%
25 Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik 50% 31% 19%
26 Barang Galian Bukan Logam 76% 19% 5%
28 Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya 75% 25% 0%
31 Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya 0% 0% 100%
36 Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 50% 42% 8%
61% 27% 12%Total
KKI2 Subsektor
15 Makanan dan Minuman 0.13 *** 0.58 ***
16 Tembakau 0.13 * 1.29 ***
17 Tekstil 0.21 *** 0.48 ***
18 Pakaian Jadi -0.03 0.43 **
19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 0.05 1.33 ***
20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 0.12 *** 1.20 ***
21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas -0.49 ** 1.06 ***
22 Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi 0.33 *** 0.78 ***
24 Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia 0.05 1.40 ***
25 Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik 0.14 *** 0.10
26 Barang Galian Bukan Logam -0.01 0.62 ***
28 Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya 0.17 *** 0.74 ***
31 Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya -0.02 1.30 ***
36 Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 0.11 ** 0.67 ***
Kapital Tenaga Kerja
30
KKI 2 Subsektor Rendah Sedang
15 Makanan dan Minuman 100% 0%
16 Tembakau 100% 0%
17 Tekstil 100% 0%
18 Pakaian Jadi 100% 0%
19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 0% 100%
20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 100% 0%
21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas 100% 0%
22 Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi 100% 0%
24 Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia 100% 0%
25 Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik 100% 0%
26 Barang Galian Bukan Logam 100% 0%
28 Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya 100% 0%
31 Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya 100% 0%
36 Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 100% 0%
97% 3%Total
32
Tahun 2003
Rendah Sedang Tinggi 99% 0% 1% 89% 11% 0% 91% 0% 9%
100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 91% 9% 0% 83% 8% 8% 96% 4% 0%
100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 96% 2% 2%
Tahun 2004
KKI 2 Subsektor Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi 15 Makanan & minuman 1% 96% 1% 1% 16 Tembakau 0% 89% 11% 0% 17 Tekstil 0% 100% 0% 0% 18 Pakaian Jadi 0% 100% 0% 0% 19 Kulit & barang dari kulit 0% 83% 17% 0% 20 Kayu & anyaman 0% 100% 0% 0% 21 Kertas & brg dr kertas 0% 100% 0% 0% 22 Penerbitan 0% 91% 9% 0% 24 Kimia 0% 92% 0% 8% 25 Karet & Plastik 0% 96% 4% 0% 26 Barang Galian non Logam 5% 95% 0% 0% 28 Barang Logam 0% 100% 0% 0% 31 Mesin Listrik 0% 100% 0% 0% 36 furnitur 8% 92% 0% 0%
2% 95% 2% 1% Total
33
Tahun 2005 Tahun 2006
KKI 2 Subsektor Rendah Sedang Tinggi 15 Makanan & minuman 98% 1% 1% 16 Tembakau 89% 11% 0% 17 Tekstil 91% 9% 0% 18 Pakaian Jadi 100% 0% 0% 19 Kulit & barang dari kulit 83% 0% 17% 20 Kayu & anyaman 100% 0% 0% 21 Kertas & brg dr kertas 100% 0% 0% 22 Penerbitan 91% 0% 9% 24 Kimia 92% 8% 0% 25 Karet & Plastik 100% 0% 0% 26 Barang Galian non Logam 100% 0% 0% 28 Barang Logam 100% 0% 0% 31 Mesin Listrik 0% 0% 100% 36 Furnitur 92% 8% 0%
95% 3% 2% Total
Rendah Sedang Tinggi 94% 4% 2% 78% 11% 11%
100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
91% 0% 9% 100% 0% 0%
88% 12% 0% 90% 5% 5% 75% 25% 0%
100% 0% 0% 92% 4% 4% 93% 4% 3%
34
0
1
2
3
4
5
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Total Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi
Output (ribu Rp)
Tingkat teknologi (level) - Kanan
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Total
Rugi
Rendah
Sedang
Tinggi
Produktivitas (ribu Rp/orang)
Tenaga kerja (orang)
35
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi
Tingkat Profit
Ra
sio
Ko
nse
ntr
asi
(Le
ve
l)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi
Tingkat Profit
Pe
rtu
mb
uh
an
Pe
nju
ala
n
38
Konstanta -3.212 * 1.935 0.033 0.028 -2.238 2.738
BIRate -0.054 0.088
BIRate(-1) -0.174 0.119 -0.145 0.118
TFP 0.397 *** 0.112 0.355 *** 0.115
TFP(-1) 0.106 0.122
CR 0.001 0.003
CR(-1) 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.003
Sales 0.004 0.005
Sales(-1) 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.005
REER 0.050 ** 0.020 0.033 0.028 0.041 0.028
Standard
ErrorPanel FEVariabel
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate -0.142 0.085 0.087
BIRate(-1) -0.302 *** 0.098 0.096 -0.305 *** 0.097 0.096
TFP 0.325 *** 0.117 0.098 0.294 *** 0.120 0.093
TFP(-1) -0.037 0.143 0.085
CR 0.000 0.003 0.002
CR(-1) 0.000 0.004 0.003 -0.000 0.004 0.003
Sales (REER <=82.24) -0.008 0.010 0.005
Sales (REER > 82.24) 0.004 0.006 0.009
Sales(-1) (REER <=82.24) -0.008 0.010 0.005 -0.080 0.045 0.051 -0.083 0.045 0.051
Sales(-1) (REER > 82.24) 0.004 0.006 0.009 0.007 * 0.005 0.004 0.006 * 0.005 0.004
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
(1) (2) (3)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
(1) (2) (3)
82.24
[81.49, 101.13]
82.24
[81.49, 101.13]
82.24
[81.49, 101.13]
3.15
0.03
(1.75, 2.58, 4.19)
2.37
0.03
(1.22, 2.01, 4.18)
0.88
0.42
(3.01, 4.09, 6.49)
Konstanta 1.443 *** 0.374 2.347 *** 0.403 1.646 *** 0.381
BIRate -0.129 0.084 0.092
BIRate(-1) -0.223 ** 0.092 -0.223 ** 0.091
TFP 0.343 *** 0.112 0.323 *** 0.115
TFP(-1) 0.078 0.123
CR 0.000 0.003
CR(-1) -0.000 0.003 -0.001 0.003
Sales 0.003 0.005
Sales(-1) 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.005
REERg 0.028 * 0.015 0.032 * 0.019 0.028 0.019
Standard
ErrorPanel FEVariabel
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE
(1) (2) (3)
39
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate -0.175 * 0.087 0.096
BIRate(-1) -0.302 *** 0.098 0.095 -0.305 *** 0.097 0.096
TFP 0.300 *** 0.117 0.093 0.294 *** 0.120 0.093
TFP(-1) -0.004 0.143 0.085
CR 0.000 0.003 0.002
CR(-1) 0.000 0.004 0.003 -0.000 0.004 0.003
Sales (REERg <=19.64) -0.011 ** 0.008 0.005
Sales (REERg > 19.64) 0.011 0.007 0.012
Sales(-1) (REERg <=-5.01) -0.080 0.045 0.051 -0.083 0.045 0.051
Sales(-1) (REERg >-5.01) 0.007 * 0.005 0.004 0.006 * 0.005 0.0035
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
(1) (2) (3)
-5.01
[-5.71, 20.09]
3.15
0.05
(2.08, 3.01, 5.18)
-5.01
[-5.71, 20.09]
2.37
0.06
(1.73, 2.50, 3.99)
19.64
[-5.71, 20.09]
2.08
0.17
(2.86, 3.90, 5.21)
(2) (3)(1)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
40
Konstanta -13.282 9.429 -9.762 8.932 -10.498 9.370
BIRate -0.148 0.424
BIRate(-1) 0.204 0.617 -0.007 0.563
TFP 0.716 0.594 0.508 0.763
TFP(-1) -2.562 3.291
CR 0.019 0.047
CR(-1) 0.152 0.153 0.014 0.057
Sales -0.038 0.041
Sales(-1) -0.072 0.092 -0.003 0.050
REER 0.171 * 0.092 0.238 0.161 0.145 0.093
Standard
ErrorPanel FEVariabel
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate -0.287 0.474 0.304
BIRate(-1) -0.971 0.602 0.703 -0.941 0.533 0.584
TFP 0.250 1.099 1.151 1.782 1.511 1.648
TFP(-1) -4.805 3.494 4.004
CR -0.070 0.078 0.101
CR(-1) 0.306 0.177 0.217 -0.007 0.062 0.042
Sales(-1) (REER <=86.42) 0.198 0.126 0.129
Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) -0.079 0.066 0.063
Sales(-1) (REER <=92.50) 0.109 0.105 0.075
Sales(-1) (REER >92.50) -0.228 0.135 0.159
Sales (REER <=98.76) -0.040 0.071 0.043
Sales (REER > 98.76) 0.001 0.072 0.048
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
(3)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
86.42
[81.49, 101.13]
2.73
0.16
(3.45, 4.89, 6.76)
(1) (2)
92.50
[81.49, 101.13]
2.34
0.21
(3.43, 4.08, 6.06)
98.76
[81.49, 101.13]
0.27
0.87
(4.23, 5.06, 9.31)
(1) (2) (3)
41
Konstanta 5.631 ** 1.634 1.084 6.961 2.967 2.383
BIRate -0.738 * 0.431
BIRate(-1) -0.290 0.550 -0.297 0.550
TFP -0.657 0.578 0.380 0.772
TFP(-1) 0.982 2.298
CR -0.055 0.037
CR(-1) -0.033 0.093 -0.027 0.082
Sales -0.083 * 0.046
Sales(-1) 0.015 0.072 0.002 0.057
REERg 0.127 ** 0.579 0.042 0.117 0.075 0.098
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
Error
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE Panel FE
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate -0.234 0.477 0.300
BIRate(-1) -0.905 * 0.693 0.533 -0.515 0.542 0.417
TFP 0.056 1.130 1.113 -0.194 1.095 0.739
TFP(-1) 0.010 2.787 2.260
CR -0.045 0.059 0.085
CR(-1) -0.029 0.121 0.099 0.012 0.065 0.041
Sales(-1) (REER <=-5.01) 0.074 0.228 0.094
Sales(-1) (REER >-5.01) -0.008 0.060 0.032
Sales(-1) (REER <=2.40) 0.032 0.103 0.081
Sales(-1) (REER >2.40) -0.078 0.119 0.057
Sales (REERg <=20.09) -0.035 0.060 0.033
Sales (REERg > 20.09) 0.020 0.080 0.051
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
(1) (2) (3)
-5.01
[-5.71, 20.09]
0.19
0.66
(1.62, 2.23, 4.95)
2.40
[-5.71, 20.09]
0.61
0.44
(2.67, 3.93, 5.63)
20.09
[-5.71, 20.09]
0.54
0.71
(5.53, 7.18, 11.08)
(1) (2) (3)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
43
Konstanta 7.111 11.670 27.381 ** 13.289 -6.007 16.765
BIRate -0.186 0.321
BIRate(-1) -0.451 0.475 0.758 0.588
TFP 0.149 0.148 0.435 ** 0.163
TFP(-1) 0.070 0.098
CR 0.006 0.018
CR(-1) 0.033 * 0.016 0.020 0.015
Sales 0.004 0.064
Sales(-1) -0.105 * 0.062 -0.154 *** 0.058
REER -0.062 0.127 -0.296 * 0.148 0.025 0.173
Standard
ErrorPanel FEVariabel
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate 0.019 0.317 0.239
BIRate(-1) -0.431 0.444 0.402 0.407 0.451 0.304
TFP 0.173 * 0.101 0.088 0.411 ** 0.137 0.170
TFP(-1) -0.089 0.124 0.074
CR 0.015 0.016 0.017
CR(-1) 0.049 ** 0.000 0.019 0.026 * 0.016 0.014
Sales (REER <=82.24) 0.254 0.161 0.162
Sales (REER > 82.24) -0.031 0.057 0.081
Sales(-1) (REER <=86.42) 0.200 0.097 0.119 -0.277 ** 0.087 0.108
Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) 0.026 0.051 0.039 -0.129 * 0.069 0.069
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
(1) (2) (3)
86.42
[86.42, 101.13]
-1.28
0.06
(-1.96, -0.53, 2.39)
0.45
(7.03, 9.03, 16.33)
86.42
[81.49, 101.13]
5.90
0.15
(8.20, 10.43, 12.89)
82.24
[81.49, 101.13]
2.67
(1) (2) (3)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
44
Konstanta 1.251 0.918 1.149 1.055 -3.796 ** 1.633
BIRate -0.211 0.306
BIRate(-1) 0.416 0.459 0.666 *** 0.298
TFP 0.220 ** 0.097 0.437 *** 0.129
TFP(-1) -0.059 0.231
CR 0.014 0.016
CR(-1) 0.029 0.020 0.023 0.015
Sales 0.049 0.467
Sales(-1) -0.024 0.048 -0.167 *** 0.058
REERg 0.091 * 0.054 0.074 0.171 -0.031 0.067
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
Error
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE Panel FE
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate 0.019 0.317 0.239
BIRate(-1) 0.029 0.392 0.261 0.715 ** 0.373 0.303
TFP 0.173 * 0.101 0.088 0.487 *** 0.132 0.177
TFP(-1) 0.199 0.215 0.160
CR 0.015 0.016 0.016
CR(-1) 0.054 ** 0.020 0.022 0.033 * 0.017 0.017
Sales (REERg <=-5.01) 0.254 0.161 0.162
Sales (REERg > -5.01) -0.031 0.057 0.081
Sales(-1) (REERg <=3.90) -0.037 0.049 0.038 -0.217 *** 0.063 0.079
Sales(-1) (REERg >3.90) 0.151 0.127 0.115 -0.101 0.074 0.073
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
3.90
[2.40, 20.09]
2.04
0.16
(4.35, 6.51, 9.20)
3.90
[-5.71, 20.09]
0.97
0.61
(5.85, 8.95, 14.48)
-5.01
[-5.71, 20.09]
2.67
0.32
(5.80, 8.27, 12.46)
(1) (2) (3)
(1) (2) (3)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
α
45
Konstanta 22.459 12.985 7.520 8.080 4.350 10.099
BIRate -0.410 0.265
BIRate(-1) -0.244 0.460 0.059 8.080
TFP -1.366 *** 0.700 -0.280 0.559
TFP(-1) -0.408 0.326
CR -0.002 0.007
CR(-1) -0.007 0.009 -0.003 0.009
Sales 0.021 ** 0.010
Sales(-1) -0.010 0.014 -0.017 0.013
REER -0.123 0.097 -0.024 0.069 -0.002 0.079
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
Error
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE Panel FE
46
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate -0.147 0.271 0.219
BIRate(-1) -0.476 0.528 0.534 0.325 0.495 0.339
TFP 0.698 0.655 0.504 -1.308 1.380 1.021
TFP(-1) -0.442 * 0.309 0.242
CR 0.003 0.008 0.007
CR(-1) -0.016 0.017 0.021 -0.005 0.017 0.016
Sales(-1) (REER <=82.24) -0.213 0.244 0.302
Sales(-1) (REER >82.24) -0.001 0.020 0.017
Sales(-1) (REER <=86.42) -0.094 0.105 0.073
Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) -0.005 0.022 0.017
Sales (REER <=101.13) 0.001 0.014 0.014
Sales (REER > 101.13) 0.239 *** 0.106 0.074
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
86.42
[81.49, 101.13]
0.65
0.58
(3.06, 3.97, 5.59)
82.24
[81.49, 101.13]
0.90
0.34
(2.58, 3.64, 5.12)
101.13
[81.49, 101.13]
-0.87
0.78
(1.13, 2.75, 7.28)
(1) (2) (3)
(1) (2) (3)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
Konstanta 6.507 *** 1.756 3.888 * 2.051 4.255 ** 2.164
BIRate -0.343 0.240
BIRate(-1) -0.321 0.361 -0.261 0.394
TFP -0.544 ** 0.265 -0.205 0.395
TFP(-1) -0.132 0.363
CR -0.008 ** 0.008
CR(-1) -0.011 0.010 -0.011 0.009
Sales 0.024 0.010
Sales(-1) -0.008 0.013 -0.007 0.013
REERg -0.039 0.028 -0.048 0.056 -0.059 0.041
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
Error
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE Panel FE
47
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate -0.249 0.342 0.260
BIRate(-1) -0.049 0.343 0.298 -0.208 0.457 0.381
TFP -0.559 0.401 0.390 -0.225 0.439 0.379
TFP(-1) -0.447 * 0.302 0.237
CR -0.004 0.008 0.006
CR(-1) -0.006 0.016 0.015 -0.014 0.016 0.017
Sales(-1) (REERg <=3.90) -0.025 * 0.019 0.013
Sales(-1) (REERg >3.90) -0.003 0.017 0.015
Sales (REERg <=19.64) 0.018 0.029 0.028
Sales (REERg > 19.64) 0.020 0.017 0.014Sales(-1) (REERg <=20.09) -0.008 0.015 0.012
Sales(-1) (REERg >20.09) -0.434 ** 0.299 0.197
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
(3)(2)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
20.09
[-5.71, 20.09]
-0.20
0.81
(5.06, 6.85, 10.95)
[-5.71, 20.09]
2.08
0.17
(2.86, 3.90, 5.21)
3.90
[-5.71, 20.09]
1.25
0.63
(4.49, 5.90, 8.07)
(2) (3)(1)
(1)
19.64
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Profit TFP - kanan
Persen Persen
48
Konstanta -3.212 * 1.935 0.033 0.028 -2.238 2.738
BIRate -0.054 0.088
BIRate(-1) -0.174 0.119 -0.145 0.118
TFP 0.397 *** 0.112 0.355 *** 0.115
TFP(-1) 0.106 0.122
CR 0.001 0.003
CR(-1) 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.003
Sales 0.004 0.005
Sales(-1) 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.005
REER 0.050 ** 0.020 0.033 0.028 0.041 0.028
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
Error
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE Panel FE
49
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate -0.242 0.482 0.277
BIRate(-1) -0.881 * 0.773 0.484 -1.114 * 0.748 0.611
TFP -0.546 1.194 0.822 0.274 1.005 0.498
TFP(-1) 0.776 2.213 1.805
CR -0.001 0.005 0.001
CR(-1) 0.001 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.002
Sales(-1) (REER <=96.07) -0.035 0.051 0.051
Sales(-1) (REER >96.07) -0.094 * 0.081 0.049
Sales (REER <=101.13) 0.028 0.035 0.026
Sales (REER >101.13) 0.021 0.265 0.118Sales(-1) (REER <=101.13) -0.027 0.031 0.019
Sales(-1) (REER >101.13) -0.129 * 0.077 0.072
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
101.13
[81.49, 101.13]
-1.23
0.42
(-0.65, -0.14, 3.07)
96.07
[81.49, 101.13]
-1.54
0.70
(5.93, 8.27, 18.39)
101.13
[81.49, 101.13]
-0.01
0.61
(1.06, 2.83, 7.46)
(1) (2) (3)
(1) (2) (3)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
Konstanta 1.689 4.581 1.383 7.280 -0.484 4.265
BIRate -0.263 0.402
BIRate(-1) 0.165 0.580 0.254 0.411
TFP -0.061 0.900 0.362 0.704
TFP(-1) 0.060 1.521
CR -0.004 0.004
CR(-1) -0.003 0.004 -0.003 0.004
Sales 0.022 0.028
Sales(-1) -0.016 0.037 -0.015 0.024
REERg 0.142 ** 0.066 0.180 * 0.102 0.202 ** 0.083
VariabelStandard
Error
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE Panel FE
(1) (2) (3)
50
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate 0.015 0.437 0.112
BIRate(-1) 0.047 0.476 0.265 -0.152 0.566 0.228
TFP 0.649 1.164 0.381 -1.964 1.687 1.987
TFP(-1) 0.143 1.213 0.786
CR 0.002 0.004 0.002
CR(-1) 0.001 0.004 0.001 -0.005 0.005 0.005
Sales(-1) (REERg <=-3.72) 0.000 0.033 0.022 0.550 0.392 0.452
Sales(-1) (REERg >-3.72) -1.994 * 0.623 1.026 -0.032 0.030 0.020
Sales (REERg <=0.93) -0.017 0.035 0.013
Sales (REERg >0.93) 0.111 0.047 0.070Sales(-1) (REERg <=20.09) 0.000 0.033 0.022
Sales(-1) (REERg >20.09) -1.994 * 0.623 1.026
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (3.24, 4.10, 7.55)
(3)
-3.72
[-5.71, 20.09]
1.66
0.44
(5.16, 7.39, 10.00)
(2)
20.09
[-5.71, 20.09]
-0.51
0.79
0.93
[-5.71, 20.09]
-0.43
0.11
(-0.27, 2.92, 5.79)
(1) (2) (3)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
(1)
51
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Profit Pertumbuhan Penjualan
Rasio Persen
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Profit TFP Rasio Konsentrasi - Kanan
Persen
52
Konstanta 4,728 *** 1,535 58,378 *** 9,476 2,134 1,769
BIRate 0,005 0,616
BIRate(-1) 0,487 *** 0,106 0,137 0,176
TFP -0,299 0,399 -0,411 0,730
TFP(-1) -13,665 *** 2,264
CR 0,004 * 0,002
CR(-1) 0,006 ** 0,003 0,003 0,003
Sales -0,009 0,005
Sales(-1) -0,120 *** 0,021 0,005 0,006
REER -0,024 ** 0,011 -0,157 *** 0,031 0,002 0,027
Salesbbm -0,562 *** 0,063
Salesbbm(-1) -0,014 0,009 -0,008 0,011
Dummy BBM -33,893 *** 3,759 -3,375 *** 0,712 0,795 0,724
Standard
ErrorPanel FEVariabel
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE
(1) (2) (3)
53
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate 0,099 0,089 0,085
BIRate(-1) 0,290 0,116 0,181 0,024 0,092 0,071
TFP -0,975 0,640 0,616 -0,145 0,429 0,356
TFP(-1) -4,671 * 1,413 2,543
CR 0,006 * 0,003 0,003
CR(-1) 0,006 0,004 0,005 0,002 0,004 0,004
Salesbbm -0,579 *** 0,067 0,100
Salesbbm(-1) -0,547 *** 0,068 0,097 -0,563 0,069 0,106
Dummy BBM -35,059 *** 3,986 5,831 -34,167 *** 4,099 5,736 -33,474 4,166 6,384
Sales (REER <=82.24) -0,012 * 0,007 0,006
Sales (REER > 82.24) -0,016 0,010 0,011Sales(-1) (REER <=82.24) 0,484 0,158 0,351 0,446 0,16 0,336
Sales(-1) (REER >82.24) -0,038 *** 0,013 0,002 0,003 0,003 0,002
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (4.18, 6.40, 10.12)
KoefisienKoefisienKoefisien
(3)
82,24
[82.24, 82.24]
8,18
0,02
(2.46, 3.78, 6.48)
(2)
82,24
[82.24, 82.24]
2,45
0,27
(5.00, 6.82, 11.54)
(1)
82,24
[81.49, 101.13]
-2,53
0,79
(1) (2) (3)
Konstanta 2,661 ** 1,043 24,454 *** 5,775 2,346 1,478
BIRate -0,040 0,071
BIRate(-1) 0,366 *** 0,106 0,129 0,116
TFP -0,323 0,352 -0,401 0,560
TFP(-1) -7,157 *** 1,783
CR 0,004 0,003
CR(-1) 0,003 0,003 0,003 0,003
Sales -0,007 0,005
Sales(-1) -0,075 0,021 0,004 0,007
REERg 0,017 0,124 0,106 ** 0,044 0,006 0,038
Salesbbm -0,564 *** 0,063
Salesbbm(-1) 0,033 ** 0,016 -0,006 0,013
Dummy BBM -34,507 *** 3,774 -4,841 *** 1,601 0,661 0,951
Panel FE
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
Error
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE
54
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate 0,052 0,085 0,074
BIRate(-1) 0,290 0,116 0,181 0,024 0,092 0,071
TFP -0,872 * 0,584 0,480 -0,145 0,429 0,356
TFP(-1) -4,671 * 1,413 2,543
CR 0,005 * 0,003 0,003
CR(-1) 0,006 0,004 0,004 0,002 0,004 0,004
Salesbbm -0,591 *** 0,067 0,096
Salesbbm(-1) -0,547 *** 0,068 0,097 -0,563 *** 0,069 0,106
Dummy BBM -35,274 *** 3,976 5,741 -34,167 *** 4,099 5,736 33,474 *** 4,166 6,384
Sales (REERg <=3.90) -0,013 * 0,007 0,006
Sales (REERg >3.90) 0,005 0,009 0,007
Sales(-1) (REERg <=-5.01) 0,484 0,158 0,351 0,446 0,160 0,336
Sales(-1) (REERg >-5.01) -0,038 * 0,013 0,023 0,003 0,003 0,002
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (3.96, 6.36, 10.92)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
(3)
-5,01
[-5.01, -5.01]
8,18
0,03
(3.93, 5.27, 8.72)
(2)
-5,01
[-5.01, 20.09]
2,45
0,28
(4.61, 6.12, 13.34)
(1)
3,90
[-5.71, 20.09]
0,65
0,61
(1) (2) (3)
α
α
55
Konstanta -12,810 8,602 -10,620 11,883 -10,198 12,267
BIRate 0,225 0,422
BIRate(-1) -0,028 0,550 -0,040 0,553
TFP 0,114 0,355 -0,052 0,380
TFP(-1) -0,001 0,393
CR 0,004 0,015
CR(-1) 0,008 0,018 0,008 0,018
Sales 0,014 0,027
Sales(-1) 0,219 0,031 0,022 0,031
REER 0,163 * 0,088 0,126 0,125 0,124 0,126
WTV 0,094 0,093
WTV(-1) 0,094 0,093 0,308 0,269 0,308 0,269
(1) (2) (3)
VariabelStandard
ErrorPanel FE
Standard
Error
Standard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate -0.072 0.423 0.395
BIRate(-1) -0.493 0.621 0.526 -0.503 0.614 0.526
TFP 0.123 0.401 0.171 -0.010 0.424 0.222
TFP(-1) 0.089 0.525 0.101
CR -0.001 0.018 0.013
CR(-1) 0.020 0.023 0.014 0.022 0.023 0.015
WTV 0.013 0.197 0.169
WTV(-1) 0.378 0.452 0.241 0.374 0.444 0.252
Sales (REER <=98.76) 0.027 ** 0.039 0.014
Sales (REER >98.76) -0.030 0.050 0.031
Sales(-1)(REER <=86.42) -0.040 ** 0.060 0.020 -0.040 ** 0.060 0.020
Sales(-1) (REER >86.42) 0.050 ** 0.040 0.022 0.051 ** 0.040 0.024
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% )
0.49 0.43 0.42
(2.41, 3.25, 5.83) (2.15, 3.34, 6.06) (2.14, 3.53, 5.65)
[81.49, 101.13] [81.49, 101.13] [81.49, 101.13]
0.56 0.03 0.00
98.76 86.42 86.42
(1) (2) (3)
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
56
Konstanta 2,785 * 1,560 0,985 2,521 1,587 2,469
BIRate -0,099 0,392
BIRate(-1) -0,415 0,425 -0,417 0,424
TFP 0,030 0,360 -0,113 0,377
TFP(-1) 0,717 0,403
CR 0,001 0,016
CR(-1) 0,060 0,018 0,007 0,183
Sales 0,008 0,028
Sales(-1) 0,013 0,030 0,014 0,030
REERg 0,009 0,067 -0,022 0,086 -0,020 0,083
WTV 0,041 0,095
WTV(-1) 0,041 0,095 0,335 0,277 0,333 0,277
VariabelStandard
ErrorPanel FE Panel FE Panel FE
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
VariabelStandard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
Standard
Error
White
Standard
Error
BIRate -0.082 0.424 0.389
BIRate(-1) -0.597 0.627 0.594 -0.615 0.616 0.582
TFP 0.114 0.402 0.176 -0.069 0.428 0.213
TFP(-1) 0.106 0.556 0.113
CR 0.000 *** 0.018 0.001
CR(-1) 0.021 0.024 0.016 0.021 0.025 0.016
WTV 0.017 0.198 0.174
WTV(-1) 0.183 0.426 0.197 0.170 0.413 0.200
Sales (REER <=2.40) 0.027 0.045 0.019
Sales (REER >2.40) -0.010 0.040 0.021
Sales(-1) (REER <=20.09) 0.017 0.035 0.019 0.018 0.036 0.020
Sales(-1) (REER >20.09) 0.079 0.127 0.065 0.074 0.122 0.061
Test Efek Threshold
Threshold
Confidence Interval
F
p-value
( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (2.77, 3.53, 5.72) (4.51, 7.15, 14.42) (4.43, 6.69, 15.62)
0.40 -0.22 -0.23
0.70 0.85 0.81
2.40 20.09 20.09
[-5.71, 20.09] [-5.71, 20.09] [-5.71, 20.09]
Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien
(1) (2) (3)
(1) (2) (3)