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7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)
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Quantifying the effect of climate change on
the deterioration of a flexible pavement
Authors: Yaning Qiaoa, Andrew Dawsona, Tony Parrya,
and Gerardo FlintschbaNottingham Transportation Engineering Centre (NTEC),
University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom.
bVirginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI),
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg (VA), United States.
Presenter : Andrew Dawson, Yaning Qiao
27 June 2013
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Research background
Research area: the long-term impact of climate changeon the pavement maintenance and life-cycle costs.
Part of the collaborative programme between NTEC
and VTTI.
Research framework: Step 1: Investigation of climate change
Step 2: Pavement performance modelling
Step 3: Maintenance intervention strategies Step 4: Life-Cycle Costs Analysis (LCCA)
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Contents
Personal background
Aims and objectives of this paper
Methodology
Results
Conclusions
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Personal background
MSc at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden(2008 10)
University of Nottingham in the U.K. (2011- 14)
Exchange student at Virginia Tech (2012-13)
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Aim and objectives of this paper
Aim To evaluate the long-term effects of climate change on a typical
pavement in Virginia, USA.
Objectives To investigate the future climate in Virginia
(MAGICC/SCENGEN).
To model the pavements performance under the future climate
(MEPDG). To investigate the effects of a method of mitigating performance
deterioration.
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Methodology
Do you believe inclimate change?
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
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Methodology
Emission Scenarios A1FI
A1B
B1
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Methodology
An example ofMAGICC/SCENGEN outputs
Emission scenarios Temperature increase fromnow to 2050 (C)
2050 A1FI 2.02A1B 1.72B1 1.26
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Methodology
A typical pavementstructure in Virginia
AC PG 70-22 50mm
AC PG 64-22 63mm
AC PG 64-22 75mm
GB A-1-a 125mm
SB A-7-6 150mm
3800 AADTT, growth rate: 0%
Groundwater: app 1.3 m below ground surface
SG A-7-6
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Methodology
-5
0
5
10
15
20
LongitudinalCracking
AlligatorCracking
IRI Total Rutting Subtotal ACRutting
Granularrutting
Sensitivity analysis (+5%) for climatic factors
Temperature
Precipitation
Wind speed
Solar radiation
Ground water
Temperature is the most
influential environmental
parameter!
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Methodology
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Methodology
02000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Histogram of temperature (10years hourly air temperature
records)
Original
A1FI
A1B
B1
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Results
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0 20 40
mm/m
Years
longitudinal crackingBaseline
A1FI
A1B
B1
0
2
4
6
0 20 40
%
Years
Fatigue cracking Baseline
A1FI
A1B
B1
0
10
2030
0 20 40
mm
Years
RuttingBaseline
A1FI
A1B
B1
0
1
2
3
0 20 40
mm/m
Years
IRIBaseline
A1FI
A1B
B1
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Results
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
mm
Years
Rutting
Baseline
A1FI
A1B
B1
18 mm15 mm
5 years 9 years
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Results
PG 64-22, 70-22 PG 76-16
Mitigation method
Upgrade all binders to (PG 76-16)
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Results
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0 20 40
mm/m
Years
longitudinal crackingBaseline
A1FI
A1B
B1
Binderupgrade
0
2
4
6
0 20 40
%
Years
Fatigue cracking Baseline
A1FI
A1B
B1
Binderupgrade
0
10
2030
0 20 40
mm
Years
RuttingBaseline
A1FI
A1B
B1
Binder
upgrade
0
1
2
3
0 20 40
mm/m
Years
IRI Baseline
A1FI
A1B
B1
Binder
upgrade
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Conclusions
For the investigated road in Virginia under climate condition in 2050:
An increase in temperature tends to accelerate pavement deterioration.
Longitudinal cracking, fatigue cracking, and rutting are found to be
affected by climate change.
IRI and granular rutting is found to be less affected.
Reduction in service life.
Limitations in the models (MAGICC/SCENGEN, MEPDG, EICM).
Upgrading binder in pavement design can address the problem. Future
work will be performed on costs.
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Thank you for your attention!