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Y10TF
Meeting
July 31, 2019
Review of Results
Overview
• Scope
• Charter
• Case Results• Power Flow (PF)
• Production Cost Model (PCM)
• Draft Report
2
Y10TF Scope
• Revised Scope was approved by Y10TF during meeting on June 14, 2019
• Primary focus of Y10TF is to evaluate the official ADS cases for stability, resource adequacy, and congestion.
• Results from PF and PCM will be made available to Y10TF, beginning with the draft ADS report
• Y10TF will also make recommendations to StS for additional study assessments that could be performed at the discretion of StS leadership and WECC management
3
Y10TF Charter
• The charter reflects the governance and purpose of the task force and will be approved by the StS at their next meeting
• It was posted with the last StS meeting, but not approved due to not meeting quorum.
4
Anchor Data Set
• Common framework of transmission, load, and generation assumptions for Western Interconnection in year 2028
• Matching network topology for the PF and PCM cases
• PCM required other data to simulate an hourly dispatch for each hour of 2028• Hourly loads, hourly shapes for fixed generation• Cost data for dispatchable generation• Wheeling charges• Generation and Transmission constraints
5
ADS PF
• The final case was completed and posted in December 2017
• Case was evaluated using the standard tests for stability and contingency analysis
• Results will be documented and presented to Y10TF at a future meeting
6
ADS PCM
• The PCM case was derived from the following:• 2028 ADS PF case
• 2026 Common Case
• L&R Load Forecasts
• Other data
• The final version 2.2 case was posted on February 28, 2019
• An alternate version (phase 2) was recently completed
7
Energy Results from PCM
8
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
AB AZ BC CA CO ID MT MX NE NM NV OR SD TX UT WA WY
Annual Generation (GWh) by State and Fuel - 2028 ADSv2.2
Other Thermal
Energy Storage
Other Renewable
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Coal
Comparison to 2026 Common Case
9
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
Annual Generation by Category (GWh)
2026 Common Case v2.1 2028 ADSv2.2
PCM Generation Breakdown
10
Conventional Hydro
24.1%
Energy Storage0.4%
Steam - Coal16.0%
Steam - Other
0.4%
Nuclear
4.7%
Combined Cycle24.7%
Combustion Turbine
4.5%
IC0.1%
Other
0.0%
DG/DR/EE6.0%
Biomass RPS1.7%
Geothermal2.7%
Small Hydro RPS0.2%
Solar
4.8%
Wind9.7%
Annual Generation Breakdown By Category - 2028 ADSv2.2
LMP Comparison (hourly sorted highest to lowest)
11
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Area Average LMP - Duration Plots
AESO AZPS BCHA BPAT CIPV CISC
LDWP NEVP NWMT PACW PAUT WACM
Annual Interchange
12
AlbertaBritish Columbia
Basin
2,914 >>
Northwest
1,44
0 >>
<< 3
,232
Rocky Mtn
Southwest
5,07
9 >>
<< 1,468
<< 2
,797
CA/MX<< 38,568
<< 2
8,46
0
<< 6
20
<< 3
,518
<< 1,432
Regional Transfers* - Annual GWh ADS 2028 v2.2
*Regional Electric boundaries often vary from geographic borders
Path 66 Comparison
13
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Me
gaw
att
s
P66 COI Path Duration Plots
2012 2018 2026_PC1_2_0 2028_ADS_2_2
Net GWh: 23545 23549 12072 21040
N->S
2018 Path data was downloaded from BPA’s public website
Path 66 – Hourly Average
14
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Average Flow by Hour (MW) -P66 COI - Annual
2018 2028_ADS_2_2
Next Steps
• The ADS PF standard analysis will be re-done and results captured and documented.
• The Y10TF will review the ADS report and provide comments
• The Y10TF charter will be approved by StS at their next meeting
• The Y10TF will meet again in August or September to approve the final ADS report.
15
Contact:
Chair
Shilpa Toppo
Liaisons
Dick Simons
Nick Hatton
Stan Holland
16